Is there a “stats based approach” already in place at Cardiff City?

CoymayMaybe the afternoon on which City CEO Ken Choo has had to issue a statement on the club’s website outlining his disappointment with a journalist at Wales Online following a story on the weekend which headlined that Mr Choo believed Russell Slade had “failed” as Cardiff City manager is not the best time to place too much faith in another article that media outlet had published on the club in the past few days.

However, I’m going to accept as true something they reported on Friday when they stated that they understood that the new Head Coach would be “young, energetic, stats driven and very much in tune with modern-day football”.

Reading that piece again, the strong impression given is that Wales Online were being briefed by someone in a senior position at the club. It seems reasonable to me to assume that this person carries some influence and the lack of any subsequent denial from the club about the claims made in the piece could be viewed as an implicit approval of what was said.

Therefore, if we accept that the new man is indeed going to be “young, energetic, stats driven and very much in tune with modern-day football”, what does that tell us? Well, we are talking about a profession where someone in their forties is often described as young and energetic can mean all sorts of things really – will he take part in practice matches in training? Will he be unable to keep still for more than five seconds in the dugout? etc. etc.

Similarly, “very much in tune with modern-day football” is sufficiently vague to mean all sorts of things, but “stats driven”? No, for me, stats driven can only mean that we are talking about someone who sets great store by statistical information – this qualification seems perfectly clear to me and is the sort of thing which would not have been mentioned unless it was exactly what the club was looking for.

Now, there are questions of degree here which need to be taken into account. For example, I’ve seen Russell Slade described as something of a stats man in the past and he did make fairly common reference to what the stats said about the game just finished in his post match press conferences. The thing is though that, if the club were only looking for a continuation of the Slade approach to stats, why, seemingly, brief the local press that this will be a requirement? No, to me, this means that City want to go well beyond the influence that stats played in the Russell Slade era.

Certainly, “very much in tune with modern-day football” could relate to the increasing part statistical analysis is playing in the game, be it analysis of a player’s physical output during a game or season or analysis of their effectiveness in terms of things like anticipation and positioning, or overall influence on a match.

Rasmus Ankersen, the man behind the statistical analysis approach favoured by Midtjylland and Brentford, does he have some disciples at Cardiff City Stadium?

Rasmus Ankersen, the man behind the statistical analysis approach favoured by Midtjylland and Brentford, does he have some disciples at Cardiff City Stadium?

Probably, the most extreme example of reliance on statistical data comes from Denmark. FC Midtjylland are owned by the man who bought Brentford, Matthew Benham, and this fascinating article   explains how data is now king at the team which won the Danish Championship last season and beat Manchester United in the First Leg of the Europa League tie between the clubs in February.

The signing of Tim Sparv as described in the article is pretty mind boggling to this sixty year old. Around a decade ago, I can remember Sparv being at Southampton I think it was (I only knew this because I can recall scouting him and dismissing him as not being good enough for my Cardiff team while playing Football Manager!). Since then he has played in Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands and Germany for a variety of teams you’ll probably never see competing in the Group stages of the Champions League before arriving at Midtjylland because the data had marked him out as one of most important players in a Greuther Fürth side that had been identified as big over achievers in European club football in the model the Danes relied on.

Hardly surprisingly, the closest the Football League has to a Midtjylland is Brentford. Benham has allowed the London club to operate on similar lines to his other team and I must say that last season’s Brentford side was the best I’ve seen at that club in my lifetime.

However, although they finished the campaign like a train, Brentford have not been as successful this time around and I’m sure many of their fans are convinced that the decision to let Mark Warburton go this time last year was a retrograde step.

Warburton has been described as Brentford’s best ever manager and much of that reputation was gained because of his success in the transfer market. He was reckoned to have an eye for spotting talent and his subsequent success at Rangers, despite spending an amount which I have seen described as “minimal” by that club’s standards, only tends to back up this view.

So, was Brentford’s fine season last year more down to Warburton than the stats which the club set such store by? In this article, Warburton argues that, while he accepts that the use of statistical data is a rapidly growing aspect of football in the 2010s, it should be used in conjunction with the more traditional methods of acquiring players, not at the expense of them.

This exactly mirrors my feelings on this subject. I’d read about Midtjylland at the time of the Manchester United tie and thought to myself that all of this data analysis is all well and good, but it doesn’t tell you about a player’s character and temperament (surely as important as talent when considering whether to invest in him?).

However, the article on Midtjylland I posted a link to earlier shows that the club have a radical answer to that problem – they believe sending someone to watch a potential recruit of theirs in action could be counter productive and so they use scouts to investigate whether they are “a fit from a personal, psychological point of view.”!

Cards on the table, I find the Midtjylland approach (they also pay particular attention to dead ball attacking ploys) to be a bit cold and lacking in spontaneity, but I can’t help thinking that it’s one more and more clubs are going to follow, so are Cardiff City intending to and would they be right to do so?

To try to answer the second part first, I think they might well be right to do so and I would argue that we’ve not been a club where all of the suggestions for new players come from the manager for some time now. For example, in the summer of 2005 (Dave Jones’ first year at the club) we bought in Glenn Loovens on loan from Feyenoord and it was widely reported that we did so because of Peter Ridsdale’s “contacts” within the game.

Similarly, the impetus for the signings of Steve McPhail and Michael Chopra a year later must, surely, have come from Ridsdale who knew the former from his Leeds days and had both players at Barnsley while he was at that club. Besides that, we signed Kevin McNaughton. a player we were supposed to have been after in 2001, that year, so it may well have been that Super Kev was recommended by, say, Sam Hammam.

Malky Mackay might have been interested in Etien Velikonja when he was managing Watford, but he has hinted that he thought he could do better than him once he came to Cardiff because of the increase in spending power he was given. When you consider the way Velikonja was used (or not used to be more accurate) by Mackay at City, the rumours that the Slovenian was a “Vincent Tan signing” look like they may not be too wide of the mark.

It seems to me that much the same could be said about Javi Guerra and Juan Cala with the first named barely used by Ole and the latter only included as a last resort, while Guido Burgstaller (who could well be in Austria’s squad for the Euros and is, reportedly, attracting interest from Southampton) is another one who was seriously under used by City.

Leaving aside any opinion on whether the decision to virtually ignore these players was right or wrong, it does make you wonder nevertheless if the manager’s concerned might have been making a stand against the bringing in of players they didn’t want.

Could it be that an owner who, trying to put this diplomatically, has original and unusual ideas on how the game should be played, has been penalised when it comes to using footballers he played a significant part in bringing to Cardiff simply because the men in question were regarded as “his” players?

Maybe, as I often am, I’m wrong there, but, if I’m not, then the use of a trusted statistical model which is accepted by all concerned (including the new Head Coach) would, hopefully, see a degree of unanimity among the club’s transfer committee and would lead to less of the looking down on the football opinions of the money men by the professionals which I’m sure goes on at most clubs – and has done for decades.

Indeed, when you consider the case of Lex Immers, I have to wonder if something along the lines of the Midtjylland approach has been used already at Cardiff?

I apologise now to those regular readers who have become pretty familiar with this piece in recent months (this is the third time I’ve posted a link to it on here!), but I find it fascinating how much at odds the opinions expressed in the article are from the ones to be found so commonly on all forms of social and broadcast media about the player who made a big impact at City in the last three months of the season.

Just how much you can be influenced by what you read or hear about someone you’ve never seen play before becomes apparent when I remember thinking “we’ve signed a right donkey here” when the Immers loan was confirmed – I always try very hard not to prejudge the players we sign, but, being honest, I did not do so with Immers as I reasoned all of these people cannot be wrong.

Tim Sparv, I didn't want him at Cardiff City ten years ago, but he's Midtjylland's "no stats all star" and an essential member of their team according to Rasmus Ankersen.

Tim Sparv, I didn’t want him at Cardiff City ten years ago when I was their manager, but he’s Midtjylland’s “no stats all star” and an essential member of their team according to Rasmus Ankersen.

Instead though, we ended up with a player I recognise now from the description of him in that article. For example, I must have mumbled “good ball” six or seven times on Saturday before realising that it was Immers playing another of those “expected assists” mentioned in the piece on him – it wasn’t his fault that his team mates were unable to make anything of the openings his clever passing created.

Perhaps the decision makers at the club ignored all of the criticism and ridicule about Immers and looked instead at the stats when making a decision on him – if they did, then well done to them, because this is a case where the figures were right and the people were wrong.

Also, when I look at another of our January arrivals, Kenneth Zohore, I see a player who would probably tick a lot of the statistical boxes that a target man type striker for this division might have, but the inconsistencies revealed during his appearances for us (e.g. very good at Burnley and Brentford, pretty good against Bolton and off the pace for much of the time in the rest of his home appearances) suggest to me that the club need to do some Midtjylland style scouting on this player before they commit to bringing him here.

Of course, with Zohore being a K.V. Kortrijk player currently, it’s not certain that he will end up here, but the cooperation between the two clubs in getting him to Cardiff, despite our embargo, is suggestive of there being more to the relationship between them than the fact that they are owned by the same man.

With Ken Choo, reportedly, saying that the nationality of the new Head Coach will not be important as long if they are the right man for the job, the idea that we may be looking at a someone moving from one Vincent Tan owned club to another begins to look more likely to me by the day.

Finally, I suppose the most important question about this stats based approach is does it work? At the time of that piece on Midtjylland, with them on the way to winning their league and Brentford heading towards the Play Offs, those who advocate it would have assuredly said yes. However, with Brentford having dropped four places from last year while never really threatening a Play Off challenge and the Danes currently down in fifth in their league, thirteen points off the top, it now looks like Mark Warburton might be right  – I still wouldn’t be surprised to learn that City intend to operate with a system that is something like the Midtjylland one though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Appropriate end to a season which just faded away in it’s last six games.

CoymayAfter their deserved draw at eventual Champions Burnley on 5 April, Cardiff City had momentum – they were closing in on the top six and, with just two defeats in their last fourteen matches, the club’s stated target for the season of reaching the Play Offs did not seem as far fetched as it had done for much of the previous seven months.

Now City had six matches left which would define their season, it wouldn’t be easy, but there was a belief in the squad which backed the suggestion that much maligned manager Russell Slade was finally winning over significant numbers of his critics.

What followed merely enabled the cynics among City fans to exchange knowing glances with each other as the curtain came down on the season at lunchtime yesterday with an undistinguished 1-1 draw with Birmingham at Cardiff City Stadium – they knew that those fans who had allowed themselves to start to believe had been kidding themselves because, at the business end of the campaign, City had, in many ways, pulled a metaphorical sickie!

Those six truly vital games yielded a miserable total of five points – all of these came at home to ensure that City’s impressive record of having lost only twice at Cardiff City Stadium was maintained, but they were only good enough to beat bottom team Bolton, who had been playing with ten men for around an hour, thanks to a penalty deep into added time.

Away from home, it was losses all of the way as City subsided disappointedly at Fulham and Brentford and, to all intents and purposes, didn’t turn up for the “Play Off showdown” at Sheffield Wednesday which ended in their heaviest defeat of the campaign.

The last goal conceded by David Marshall in his time at Cardiff City? After a couple of years of speculation about him moving, I think he may well get his deserved opportunity to play more Premier League football during the summer. As for the scorer, although I don't mind Birmingham, David Cotterill has spent his career mostly playing for teams I'm not too keen on, so he's never been a favourite of mine, it was a good finish yesterday though and I expect to see him named in the provisional Welsh squad for the Euros which will be announced by Chris Coleman tomorrow.*

The last goal conceded by David Marshall in his time at Cardiff City? After a couple of years of speculation about him moving, I think he may well get his deserved opportunity to play more Premier League football during the summer. As for the scorer, although I don’t mind Birmingham, David Cotterill has spent his career largely playing for teams I’m not too keen on, so he’s never been a favourite of mine, it was a good finish yesterday though and I expect to see him named in the provisional Welsh squad for the Euros which will be announced by Chris Coleman tomorrow.*

Therefore, with nothing riding on the outcome of a game between two teams were just wishing away a season in which they had both had fleeting moments when they could entertain the notion of facing the Chelsea’s, Manchester United’s and, dare I say it, Leicester City’s of this world, I headed to the ground not expecting much and not much was exactly what I got.

There were some items of interest. For example, in another instance of the improvements being made at the club off the field in recent months, City wore their 2016/17 kit and, even an old misery like me who whinges away at football losing it’s soul because of such rampant commercialisation as changing your kit every year and charging a fortune for low quality versions of it with a sponsors name plastered across it, had to admit it looked quite good – better still, the new shirts can be ordered from the club now, so the days of waiting until about November before they appeared in the club shop seem well behind us.

It was also good to see Ben Turner back playing first team football again after an injury ruined couple of years which must mean that there are doubts as to whether he will be offered a new contract by the club when his current deal runs out at the end of June. However, Big Ben did his prospects no harm at all as he was one of our better performers on the day, even if he did find Clayton Donaldson’s pace and movement pretty difficult to deal with at times.

Before going on to the match, I should mention one other item of good news as it was announced that the club’s transfer embargo had been lifted at 2.30 yesterday afternoon.

As for the game, the BBC’s stats made for interesting reading because they showed both teams level when it came to goal attempts, efforts on target and corners gained. So, all of that would suggest that a draw was the right outcome, but when you consider that the visitors hit the woodwork twice and had a couple of efforts cleared off the line, whereas we struggled to create meaningful chances to add to the goal we were gifted, I think it’s fair to say that Birmingham’s impressive travelling support headed home thinking that their team were the ones who were the moral winners of the match.

One aspect where City enjoyed dominance was in the matter of possession. Unusually for them, City had the ball for as much as sixty per cent of the time, but, as I’m told by Sky’s commentators every time one of their matches is televised that Birmingham have the lowest possession figures in the Championship, this didn’t come as a surprise.

Speaking as someone who belongs firmly in the camp which wants my team to have as much of the ball as possible because the opposition cannot score without it, I have to admit that it’s been a good season for those who think differently to that. Sides who are comfortable with letting their opponents have the ball have prospered and the success of teams like Leicester has shown that this doesn’t have to mean that the anti football doctrine of Jose Mourinho has to be slavishly followed when it comes to these outfits who sometimes have you thinking they don’t want the ball.

Birmingham have just completed their best season in years and did so by, basically, inviting their opponents to break them down, while looking to break with pace and purpose if the opportunity arises.

As I watched Donaldson leading the Birmingham line so effectively, I found myself wondering what City might have achieved this season with someone like him or Cameron Jerome up front as opposed to the statuesque Kenwyne Jones and the willing but inexperienced, in that position at least, Anthony Pilkington.

Russell Slade appears to be contemplating what the future may hold for him . With a, so far, pretty vague job description for his new Head of Football tole, there are those who are speculating that could be very tempted to move elsewhere if a managerial offer comes in for him - in fact, with the club looking for a new "boss" for them, many of the City dtaff in this photo could face an uncertain future - how many of them will still be at Cardiff City come the new season?*

Russell Slade appears to be contemplating what the future may hold for him . With a, so far, pretty vague job description for his new Head of Football tole, there are those who are speculating that he could be very tempted to move elsewhere if a managerial offer comes in for him – in fact, with the club looking for a new “boss” for them, many of the City staff in this photo could face an uncertain future – how many of them will still be at Cardiff City come the new season?*

However, the way Birmingham were able to snuff out so many of our attempted attacks at source only served as a reminder that you need a complete package to compete at the very top of this league – we could have had, say, Andre Gray or Jordan Rhodes up front, but the lack of a quality final ball from midfield as the fitful Noone, Lawrence and Whittingham flattered to deceive and the earnest but, on this occasion, limited O’Keefe laboured with little effect meant that there would not have been an end product.

When Birmingham were inconvenienced, the cleverness of the fit again Lex Immers usually had something to do with it. Immers wasn’t as impressive as he had been a month or two ago, but he still did enough to have me hoping that, with the embargo lifted, the funding can be found to bring him here on a permanent basis in the summer.

Once Immers left the field to be replaced by Kenneth Zohore, who this time gave a performance which backed Russell Slade’s cautious approach towards playing the young striker, City became something of a mess.

Increasingly, they offered Birmingham hope that they could take the three points and our season ended with us clinging on pretty desperately for the draw which, in the event, was not enough to hold on to seventh place because, while we were ending our away season with no points from three matches, Ipswich were drawing at Sheffield Wednesday and Middlesbrough and beating Derby.

So, for me anyway, Russell Slade’s time at Cardiff ended in much the same way as it went for the majority of his eighteen months with us – playing unconvincing, functional, hard working and one paced football which left fans yearning for that something extra.

Mr Slade also leaves the manager’s job having been entirely consistent in his ignoring of young Welsh players who were at the club when he arrived. If we accept that Declan John was an established first team squad member going into the 2014/15 season, then I maintain that Russell Slade has not progressed the career of a single locally born young player who would have felt he had a reasonable chance of playing first team football in the next eighteen months at the time the new manager arrived – for me, the club has never felt less Welsh than it did under Russell Slade.

*pictures courtesy of https://www.flickr.com/photos/joncandy/

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