Under 21s win, but it’s so tight for that second Play Off place.

CoymayHours of heavy rain and the lack of any covered areas pitchside at the Vale had convinced me to give yesterday afternoon’s Under 21 Development team game with Hull a miss, but in the hour before kick off, the rain eased and, by the time the match started, it had stopped – indeed, conditions improved so much that there was bright sunshine by the time it ended.

So, was my late decision to make the short drive to Hensol Castle worthwhile? I would say it was, the Under 21s took their unbeaten run to ten matches as they edged a tight contest 1-0 against opponents who stood in third place in the competition’s Northern Section with an almost identical playing record to City’s.

That similarity in records always pointed towards a certain type of match though and that was exactly how it turned out – the teams were evenly matched and City had to dig really deep as Hull were left, no doubt, feeling that a draw was the least they deserved after a strong second half showing that saw them dominant in terms of possession and territory.

Whether anything dramatic happened in the opening minutes or not, I cannot tell you because when I arrived it was immediately obvious that the match was not being played on the pitch that had always been used for matches I had watched at the venue previously. With no one representing the club around to ask, I began to think the game had been postponed, but I was aware that there was another pitch about a five minute walk away and someone among the small group of people who had congregated by now was able to confirm that this was where the match was being played.

Now I know the numbers that attend matches like these are small, and most of those who do are relatives/friends of someone who is playing, so you’d assume they’d be aware of the change of pitch from normal. However, with the club’s Twitter feed for this level telling supporters that they were welcome to come along and watch, you would have thought they could have given the alteration a mention. As it was, any one not too familiar with the venue could easily have got straight back into their car and driven home in the belief the game had been called off for some reason, while making a mental note not to bother coming again.

Once I got to the match, it didn’t take long to figure out that, with one exception, it was pretty much the team that had become the norm in recent weeks being used. That one unexpected player I mentioned was Ben Turner who was making a return after his latest lengthy injury absence and would, doubtless, have been pleased to come through seventy minutes of playing time, seemingly, unscathed.

Assuming that the few minutes I had missed were similar to what I saw for about twenty minutes after I arrived, Ben was given a pretty gentle welcome back to playing action. Goals or even goalmouth action in the opening minutes have tended to be conspicuous by their absence at first team games this season and that’s often tended to be the case at the other levels I’ve watched us play at as well – it wasn’t until the match entered it’s second quarter here that it moved beyond the cagey sparring stage.

It was City who first threatened a goal when a fluent move down the right produced some room for full back Dylan Rees to put over a fine cross which was met by Rhys Healey – the striker got a decent contact on the ball, but his header was too close to visiting keeper Watson to cause him serious problems.

The minutes which followed generally saw City playing their best football of the game, but, even then, Hull had their moments, notably when Ben Wilson had to move sharply to keep out a well struck effort from around twenty five yards.

Macauley Southam a hard working and effective performance from the midfield player in yesterday's Development team win over Hull.*

Macauley Southam, a hard working and effective performance from the midfield player in yesterday’s Development team win over Hull.*

City were generally looking the sharper team though and, after a Turner header from a Jamie Veale corner had been hacked clear just before an attacker could get to it, they took the lead in the thirty fifth minute.

Although it was Healey who ended up putting the ball in the net, great credit has to go to two other younger members of the side for their part in the goal. First, Robbie Patten’s clever pass “nutmegged” an opponent to give left back David Tutonda his first real chance to get forward. The Hull right back obviously thought he was favourite to reach Patten’s pass, but he wasn’t the first player at this level to misjudge Tutonda’s pace and power and I doubt very much if he’ll be the last.

Having burst clear of his opponent, Tutonda had forty yards or so to run into and impressed again with his composure as he got to the bye line and then made the right choice by pulling back a low cross which Healey finished efficiently from about eight yards out.

Hull came back with a header not too far over the bar, but City were playing well now and a lovely passing movement almost get the reward it deserved when Kadeem Harris’ effort from twenty yards was well turned aside by Watson.

There were a few more close shaves for the visitors before they reached half time with a deficit which was probably a fair reflection of the balance of play, but they will have been grateful not to have been further behind given City’s growing supremacy as the minutes ticked by.

However, the balance of power was to change after the interval as Hull, looking sharper and more powerful than their opponents, had much the better of the second half. City, with their midfield diamond formation seeing their possession dry up, were forced to play on the break and it was only in the closing stages as Hull pushed further forward in their search for an equaliser that there was even a suggestion of a second home goal.

Most of the time, City were forced to defend, but with Turner’s experience proving invaluable at times, they were generally able to cope fairly comfortably. An exception to this came when a good through ball split the centrebacks to give one of Hull’s forwards a clear run in on goal – it looked a certain equaliser, but a superb sprawling save by Wilson preserved the lead.

When Turner made way for Rollin Meneyese with twenty minutes to go, the youngster settled in well alongside an impressive Jordan Blaise, but Hull stepped things up in the last ten minutes as they forced a series of corners. One of these was met by defender Ben Clappison whose header was kept out by a combination of Wilson and an upright and another was missed by the keeper before the ball was desperately scrambled behind by the defence as it bobbed about a yard or two from the goal line.

Hull’s corners also offered City counter attacking opportunities if they could get the sort of controlled possession that was mostly denied them in the second half and they wasted a three on two break before Harris decided to go solo and was only denied by another fine Watson save after a thrilling sixty yard run.

With Macauley Southam exemplifying City’s.work ethic in defence, they were able to do a pretty good job of running down the clock to hold on to the win which leaves them clinging on to second spot by their fingernails after a 4-2 win for Millwall over Barnsley left the two teams level on points and goal difference with only goals scored to separate the two teams – a win for fourth placed Colchester leaves them still firmly in the hunt as well as this up to date table shows..

The second half had been a real slog and it looked to me as if the recent relentless cycle of two matches a week in a competition where it is not too unusual to go a month without playing, had caught up with a few of those who have been regulars in the team recently.

If I’m right in thinking that, then a match at Watford on Thursday, followed by a trip to Northern Section leaders Huddersfield next Monday are going to test stamina levels to the full before regular season fixtures are completed with a rearranged home match against Palace for which a date had not been announced yet – even if they fail in their quest for a place in the end of season Play Offs, it’s been an excellent second half to the campaign for Kevin Nicholson’s team.

*picture courtesy of http://www.cardiffcityfc.co.uk/news/

Posted in The stiffs | Tagged | 6 Comments

A mortal blow to our Play Off hopes?

CoymayI daresay that at 3.45 yesterday afternoon a lot of Sheffield Wednesday fans were getting pretty twitchy. Their side, which had been so relentless in their pursuit of a Play Off place in recent months that they had broken clear from the pursuing pack to reach a stage where they were beginning to be regarded as certainties for a top six finish, were 3-0 down to Bristol City at Ashton Gate.

Worse still, the one team who could realistically entertain thoughts of denying them their place in those Play Offs were 1-0 up at Craven Cottage against Fulham – Cardiff City were in a position to take the feelgood factor which had developed at the club over the past month or so up another notch.

Little over an hour later, the cold, hard data told you that, although Wednesday had not threatened to turn the situation in their match around as they slipped to a 4-1 defeat, their chances of a top six finish were even better than they had been before kick off because the gap of five points between them and their nearest pursuer had been maintained and now those pursuers had once less game left in which to catch the Owls.

By conceding goals in the first and last minutes of the second half, Cardiff had turned a potential three points into none and, all of a sudden, a task which had been a big one begins to look Herculean this morning, but there are a few things that those with a glass half full disposition can cling on to.

While our goal difference is so far behind all of the sides above us that it would appear that we are a point worse off than the table makes us look, the truth is that we still have fifteen points to play for and we need to turn around a deficit which has three clubs not even half that number clear of us.

In my review of our game at Burnley in midweek I said that Derby’s 4-0 win over Hull on the same night was the sort of result which could transform their season, so if that is true when a result goes for you, can’t the reverse also apply when a team suffers a shocking, heavy defeat that no one had seen coming? Bristol City 4 Sheffield Wednesday 1 falls into that category in my book.

Why, wasn’t there some team a few years back that had four matches left to play, who were eight points clear of the team (who had played a match more than them) in seventh place and had a goal difference of +22 compared to their rival’s +4, which ended up losing out on the Play Offs because their goal differences were identical, but they had scored less goals over the season? Who were that side I wonder!

Could Bristol City 4 Sheffield Wednesday 1 end up being the Hillsborough club’s equivalent of Preston 6 Cardiff 0 in 2008/09?

After his side’s humbling, Wednesday coach Carlos Carvalhal said “It was a day off for us in the Championship. It is a long competition and you get accidents along the way.”. I can remember him saying something similar after his team had surprisingly been beaten 3-1 at Charlton in  the autumn and Wednesday’s impressive run of form in the weeks which followed showed that Carvalhal had been right to remain philosophical about that unexpected loss, but this latest one has come right at the business end of the season, rather than at a time when there is long enough to go to absorb an unconvincing run of four of five matches.

Lex Immers is congratulated by Aron Gunnarson, whose neatly improvised cross created the goal, after the Dutchman put us ahead. The trouble is that Immers is the only player who has been scoring on a pretty consistent basis in the last month - apart from him, our centrebacks when they come up for a corner our free kick seem to be the most likely source of a goal.*

Lex Immers is congratulated by Aron Gunnarson, whose neatly improvised cross created the goal, after the Dutchman put us ahead. The trouble is that Immers is the only player who has been scoring on a pretty consistent basis in the last month. Apart from him, our centrebacks, when they come up for a corner our free kick, seem to be our  most likely source of a goal – twenty goal attempts yesterday, according to the BBC, and only three of them on target tells it’s own story.*

Wednesday now have a couple of home matches in which they can put things right, but I bet the atmosphere at Hillsborough when they face Ipswich next Saturday will be a lot more tense than many expected it to be after they had recorded their fourth successive victory last Tuesday by seeing off Blackburn at home.

So, if Wednesday might now have a few newly found mental demons to conquer, what about the other side it was thought we could catch, Derby, and is Hull’s poor form putting them into a position whereby the nightmare of a seventh place finish could become a reality?

Derby followed up that big win over Hull by scoring four more at home as they put Bolton out of their misery by confirming their relegation. This means Derby will go on their travels over the next ten days with renewed confidence, but, based on recent evidence, the very fact that they are playing outside their home City makes them come over all strange – they still need to start showing some conviction away from home, after all they face two matches out of three outside Derby in the Play Offs if they are to be promoted.

Sadly though, we’re now at a stage where if Derby can maintain their very good home form by winning their last two matches on their own ground, we’re probably going to need to win all of our remaining games to overhaul them, even if they get nothing from their three remaining away fixtures.

A 2-2 draw at Huddersfield means that it’s now one win in nine matches in all competitions for Hull, so, despite the fact that they will take heart from getting a point after falling behind in the 90th minute, the Humberside club are going through a phase which cannot just be written off as a blip.

You can look at the remaining fixtures of all of the three sides above us and see plenty of matches which you’d back them to win – for example, three of Hull’s next four matches are at home to teams with nothing to play for. However, going back to 2008/09, our last three games after the Preston mauling were against a team that was all but relegated and two sides which knew they had no chance of going up or down.

So, there are going to be games from now on where there will be one team beset by fear of failure against another one who may be already on their holidays mentally or could be out to enjoy themselves as their season winds down – if it’s the latter, then they become dangerous opponents for a tense team (especially if they are playing in front of their own nervy supporters).

Yes, Sheffield Wednesday, Derby and Hull all have the potential to drop points when you wouldn’t expect them to as the prize which enables them to maintain the promotion dream, which has them all spend millions in the transfer market in the last eleven months, gets closer. However, to fail now would be devastating for any of them, whereas I’ve never believed that to be true at Cardiff.

Seven years ago, many City fans were thinking with four games to go that we were on our way to automatic promotion. A top six finish was being taken for granted and, even with the disaster which followed against Preston, Charlton, Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday, that would have happened if the first named hadn’t been good enough to take full advantage of our implosion.

That’s where the big question lies with Cardiff City and their Play Off pursuit in 2015/16 – we are never going to feel the stifling pressure of expectation, because it’s hard to see how we can get into the top six early enough to have to play a couple of games where we would have to maintain that position now, but do we have it in us to put together the run of results which will take advantage of any wobble from the three sides above us?

This is where things start to get problematical as far as I’m concerned. I’ll come to what happened yesterday shortly, but we are talking about a side here which has struggled to put together those clusters of wins which any team that finds itself in the top six come the end of a campaign strings together as a matter of course.

So far this season, our best points return from a five game group of fixtures is eleven. This came back in August and September when we managed to win more than two games on the trot for the only time as we followed up draws with QPR and Blackburn with wins over Wolves, Forest and Huddersfield – since then, we have only once managed to record consecutive victories when  Preston and Bristol City were both overcome around six weeks ago.

Therefore, if we equal our best five match run so far, we’ll end up with seventy four points, which, when you bear in mind our relatively poor goal difference, means that, in all probability, Derby and Hull would have to take just three points from their remaining matches to finish below us, while a point a game for Sheffield Wednesday would see them also fall short of us on seventy three points.

I suppose Wednesday just getting one win and two draws  or all of their remaining matches finishing all square is possible, but I cannot see Hull or Derby slipping up so badly. so the likelihood is that we will need more than eleven points to make it.

No, for me, four of our next five games need to be won for us to have a realistic chance of extending our season and, if we are going to draw one of them, then it shouldn’t really be at Sheffield Wednesday.

Sadly, that looks beyond us I fear. While our home form is good enough to suggest we could get nine points from the three games we have left at Cardiff City Stadium, we are nowhere near as convincing away from home and, with Brentford on a winning run now, I’ve no great belief that we can win either of our remaining away fixtures.

After the Burnley match, people talked about us having momentum – was that really true? Yes, we have momentum at home, but a look at the return from our last three away games shows you that this is hardly the case when we travel.

I said at the time and I still say now that the 0-0 draw at Burnley was a point gained rather than two lost, but it needed to be backed up with at least one win in the two away games either side of it.

I've always rated Scott Parker. He should have won far more England caps than he did in my opinion, but he's 35 now and, if he ever did have the pace to take him clear of an opponent's midfield and into a scoring position, it's not there any more - he took his first goal of the season well, but it owed as much to sloppy thinking on Cardiff's part as it do to any excellence on Fulham's*

I’ve always rated Scott Parker. He should have won far more England caps than he did in my opinion, but he’s 35 now and, if he ever did have the pace to take him clear of an opponent’s midfield and into a scoring position, it’s not there any more – he took his first goal of the season well, but it owed as much to sloppy thinking on Cardiff’s part as it did to any excellence on Fulham’s*

Now, Fulham are a team you cannot take lightly because they have a strike partnership that any Championship team should envy (I believe we’d be up with Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton now if McCormack and Dembele were Cardiff players), but they and Reading are teams that we should be looking to take a total of three or four points off, rather than the one we managed.

What was galling about yesterday was that we conceded such poor goals – letting Scott Parker break beyond our back four with no one tracking him twenty seconds after the game restarted hinted at unfit minds rather than bodies, while there were ample chances to deal with the corner which led to the home side’s winner in added time.

Both of the goals asked questions of our manager’s approach. Having used Kagisho Dikgacoi to screen the back four at Burnley, would someone like him or the rested Stuart O’Keefe have seen us defend the situation better for their equaliser and did the decision to bring two strikers on as subs convey the message that a draw was no good to us, leading to a situation where we were not properly switched on for that late corner?

I’ve not been backward in coming forward about being critical of Russell Slade in the past when I’ve thought he deserved it, but I don’t believe it would be justified for me to do that today.

While I’m not generally a fan of squad rotation and wonder whether we have the depth to be able to do it effectively anyway, I have to accept that, especially these days, clubs are far better placed to judge when someone could do with a game off than “experts” who watch from the sidelines like me are – I can’t help thinking that we would have been caught cold for their equaliser, no matter who was in our midfield.

Similarly with the winning goal, I believe our manager was right to send on Kenneth Zohore and Idriss Saadi with the score at 1-1 – as he said in his post match remarks, this was a game that we really needed a win from and his substitutions reflected that. If some of our players switched off for the winning goal because they felt the changes made meant it was win or bust, when the truth was that every point we gain may be vital now, that’s their fault, not the manager’s.

Our failure to see a very promising half time situation through played a leading part in making a league, which is so often praised for it’s competitiveness, look pretty uncompetitive with still a month to go.

Yes, the race to see which two out of three will go up automatically still excites, but, all of a sudden, the bottom three look detached from the rest and the identity of the eventual top six will seem very clear in the minds of those neutrals who analyse such things – can City yet defy the odds and leave us with a final day cliff hanger when it comes to who makes the Play Offs? Despite being greatly heartened by so much that has gone on at the club in recent weeks, I don’t see it happening now.

*pictures courtesy of http://www.walesonline.co.uk/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Down in the dugout, Out on the pitch, The Championship | Tagged , | 6 Comments