Weekly review 17/7/16.

Coymay

So, one first team game into his career as Cardiff City Head Coach and Paul Trollope already has a bigger win to his name than Russell Slade ever managed in his season and three quarters at the club – not only that, it feels like there was more tactical flexibility shown in that one match than there was in all of his predecessor’s time here!

Actually, having seen us playing with just two at the back in the closing stages of our win over Bolton at Cardiff City Stadium last season, that  last bit’s not really fair. However, by starting with a Wales style 3-5-2 in yesterday’s 4-0 win at Shrewsbury, before making eleven changes in a switch to what looked like a 4-2-3-1 formation, Trollope did show an encouraging adaptability by using a warm up match for what it should be used for. There was a certainly a different feel to the approach used compared to what we were experiencing this time last year as we prepared for the 2015/16 campaign.

City started yesterday with a back three of Bruno Manga, Matt Connolly and Semi Ajayi in front of David Marshall with Fabio and Declan John operating as wing backs. In central midfield, the trio of Stuart O’Keefe, Peter Whittingham and Lex Immers combined, with the latter in a more advanced position behind Anthony Pilkington and new signing Frederic Gounongbe.

It was all change for the last third of the match with Simon Moore replacing Marshall and a very inexperienced back four of Theo Wharton, Jordan Blaise, Tom James and David Tutonda being given their chance. Tom Adeyemi appeared in a City shirt for the first time in nearly a year as he accompanied Kagisho Dikgacoi , with Craig Noone, Matt Kennedy and Kadeem Harris supporting lone striker Kenneth Zohore.

After the match, Trollope explained that Sean Morrison and Lee Peltier were hoping to be ready for the first league match at Birmingham in three weeks time following their operations during the summer and that Joe Ralls had been ill and so was not risked, but he was expected to available for selection for the upcoming matches in Germany.

As for the game itself, while it’s always best not to draw too many conclusions from such occasions, it is maybe worth recording that Shrewsbury were able to win 1-0 at City in the Third Round of the FA Cup last year, having shared a 2-2 home draw with us on this weekend last year – they also drew by the same score with Wolves in a behind closed doors game earlier this week.

So, I think it’s fair to say that when a Championship team visits the ground of a League One club for a pre season match, you don’t usually expect there to be a four goal margin between the sides. Of course, such an outcome might be indicative of a weak Shrewsbury team in the coming season, it may mean a strong Cardiff showing or, most likely, it will have no relevance whatsoever to what happens in the nine months starting from 5 August!

After a strong start, City got their first goal on twenty six minutes when Pilkington cut in from the left to hit a right footed shot into the roof of the net from twenty five yards and there was then a first goal for the club by Gounongbe when he nodded in a Whittingham corner shortly before the interval.

The other two goals were scored after the host of changes made by both sides, with a Noone free kick being glanced in by James (although those commentating on City’s website thought the final touch came off a Shrewsbury defender) and then Zohore was rewarded for his closing down of keeper Callum Brown, as he charged down a clearance to be left with a tap in from about a yard out.

Strictly speaking, the match yesterday was not the first under Paul Trollope’s leadership. City had made their annual trip to Forest Green on Wednesday, but, unlike on previous occasions, it was more of a Under 21 cum Academy team which took on the Conference club and the new Head Coach only had a watching brief as he left James Rowberry to take charge.

Just how far Adam LeFondre and Federico Macheda have fallen down the pecking order at the club could be emphasised by the fact that they were the only senior players to figure on Wednesday (I know LeFondre is currently training with the Under 21s and presume Macheda is doing the same).

The two of them combined as Macheda put City ahead and then keeper Ben Wilson distinguished himself by saving a penalty, only to be beaten by another one awarded a few minutes later. Level at the break, an impressive looking Forest Green side got on top after that and scored two more unanswered goals.

I mentioned three first team men from last season who didn’t feature at Shrewsbury, but there were two others missing as well. Aron Gunnarsson has been given a few weeks holiday following his exertions with Iceland this summer, but it would appear that the other absentee, Scott Malone will be leaving anytime soon as he in is in the throes of a transfer to Championship rivals Fulham with Welsh Euro 2016 squad member “Jazz” Richards (who made it on to the pitch for the last few minutes of the opening match against Slovakia) moving in the opposite direction.

I think it was on Monday that the news first broke that Malone was in London having a medical and then it emerged soon after that Richards was involved as well, but quite why the deal has still not been completed is unclear. It certainly appears to be going ahead because Paul Trollope talked of Richards arriving “in the near future” after yesterday’s match and so I can only speculate that a a move which had been described as a straight swap in some places, may be a little more complicated that that.

If he does sign for City, then I believe Jazz Richards will be the only one in our squad who knows what it's like to play in front of a full house at Cardiff City Stadium with it's increased capacity of 33,000 - Richards has done well for Wales on  very big occasions at the ground in the last thirteen months and it's strange that his level of performance at Fulham during that time would appear to be in direct contrast to what we've seen of him in a red shirt.

If he does sign for City, then I believe Jazz Richards will be the only one in our squad who knows what it’s like to play in front of a full house at Cardiff City Stadium with it’s increased capacity of 33,000 – Richards has done well for Wales on very big occasions at the ground in the last thirteen months and it’s strange that his level of performance at Fulham during that time would appear to be in direct contrast to what we’ve seen of him in a red shirt.

Certainly, with us paying a reported £150,000 for Malone in January 2015 and Fulham, seemingly, spending half a million to get Richards before the start of last season, it may be that the London team feel they should also be getting some sort of fee for the former Swansea man who was, apparently, with City as a teenager. However, this would be in stark contrast to the attitude of Fulham fans on the messageboards I’ve read who, almost to a man and woman, would seem to be happy to pay us to get the player off their hands!

I always say that one of the best ways to judge a potential new signing is to read what the fans of his current team think of him because you tend to get a balanced range of opinions which give a fair indicator of his strengths and weaknesses. I have to say though that I’ve never seen such uniformly negative reviews of a player as the ones I’ve seen of Jazz Richards at Fulham – the only fairly positive one I saw was someone saying that while he wasn’t very good, he wasn’t as bad as everyone was making him out to be!

Now, these descriptions of a player who I feel has never let Wales down (I thought he was excellent in our 1-0 win over Belgium last summer) and always looked pretty useful when I saw him playing for Swansea and the clubs they loaned him out to, were so at odds with the opinion I had formed of him that I did a little research into Fulham last season and I found the following which I set out in a messageboard post during the week;-

“Fulham were awful at the back in the season they got relegated and have hardly been much better in their two years in the Championship, so it’s not much of a recommendation that Richards couldn’t hold down a regular place in their side last season. However, a closer look at things shows that their defensive record with Richards in the side was much better than it was when he didn’t play – they conceded thirty eight in the twenty six matches he featured in and forty five in the twenty four when he wasn’t involved. Furthermore, Richards was only involved in one of the five matches in which Fulham lost by three or more goals and that was a meaningless end of season affair at Brentford.

Richards and his new team were doing alright under Kit Symons’ management up until he got injured at the end of October, but while he was out, they conceded eight in two matches which led to the man who signed him being sacked. Richards was back in the side in December, but Fulham would never win again for the rest of the season when he played – there were plenty of draws and they weren’t getting thrashed when he played, but the new manager Slavisa Jokanovic dropped him in early March and he only featured once after that.

So, I think there is some evidence to say that he wasn’t as bad for Fulham as many of their fans think he was, but, on the other hand, there’s not much in his club form to indicate that he would be an improvement on Lee Peltier who, for all of his limitations going forward, was a very solid defender for us last season.”

For me, the most damning stat about Richards at Fulham was that they only won three out of the twenty two League matches he featured in – they were far more likely to win when he wasn’t there. However, the stats also show that Fulham fans would be wrong to characterise him as being one of the leading reasons as to why they, once again, had a woeful defensive record – they conceded almost two goals a game when he wasn’t playing and less than one and a half a match when he was.

As I mention, Richards seemed to be doing pretty well under a manager who he was familiar with because of their Wales connections and it is to be hoped that the same applies if and when he teams up with some of the men who were there helping out Chris Coleman in France – time will tell I suppose.

One last thing, David Marshall was linked with the obligatory £6 million move from Cardiff when stories appeared saying newly promoted Hull City were after him. A long term injury to first choice goalkeeper Alan McGregor means that Steve Bruce will need to bring someone in for the new season.

If you are a Premier League club looking for a keeper in the domestic lower leagues, then, especially when you consider the glowing reviews he got during City’s season at that level in 13/14, Marshall looks the best option out there to me – I think Marshall deserves another chance in the top flight and would accept a bid in the region of the figure quoted for him as long as a large portion of that fee was added to the playing budget for the new season.

 

Posted in Down in the dugout, Out on the pitch | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Euros 2016 – my favourite tournament ever, yet one of the dullest I’ve seen.

CoymayAs I settled down to watch last night’s European Championship Final between France and Portugal in Paris, one of the thoughts I had was whether the latter would be able to wrest the title of worst team I’ve ever seen in a major international tournament Final from Argentina’s cloggers of 1990.

By the end of one hundred and twenty minutes of, largely, turgid and cautious football from the Portugese team, they were crowned Champions as they rode their luck somewhat to secure a 1-0 win thanks to a goal by Swansea reject Eder.

So, did Portugal do enough to miss out on the Mauve and Yellow Army Award for worst finalists ever? Yes they did, actually they comfortably avoided that fate as, for the first time, I found myself quite admiring them.

Start slowly and peak at Final time is the widely accepted way to approach World/continental Championships in most team sports and Portugal were able to adhere to that formula as they saved their best until last against opponents who have quite often looked a bit uncomfortable in their role as tournament hosts and many people’s favourites.

France started well and, for a while, it looked like they would win as comfortably as many of the pundits had tipped them to do, but the match turned in the twenty fifth minute when Portugal lost their best player, the man regarded by many as the best in the world today and by some as the best ever, Cristiano Ronaldo, through injury.

Far from proving to be a mortal blow to Portugese hopes, the change, which saw Ricardo Quaresma come on for Ronaldo, improved them as a team. That’s not meant as a criticism of the Real Madrid man (I’m not a great fan of his, but I did feel really sorry for him as he was stretchered off), but the truth is that France found their opponents a much harder nut to crack after that – perhaps France got a bit complacent as they saw the man they must have thought most likely to deny them making his departure, but Portugal survived more comfortably with Ronaldo off the pitch and even began to suggest they might have a goal in them during the second half.

A bit better than I was prepared to give them credit for before the Final, but still nowhere near being an outstanding team - Portugal Euro 2016 winners.

A bit better than I was prepared to give them credit for before the Final, but still nowhere near being an outstanding team – Portugal, Euro 2016 winners.

It was in extra time though that I finally felt the first hint of admiration for Portugal. This was the third time they’d had to play an extra half an hour (no other team in the competition had needed to play more than one), but they were the ones who looked the fresher and the second period saw them take charge against leaden footed opponents who seemed to have run out of ideas as to how to make a breakthrough.

Despite warming to Portugal somewhat, I still can’t make a case for them being deserving Champions though – in my view a flawed and largely boring tournament got the winners it deserved.

Euro 2016 has attracted criticism throughout with the increase in the number of finalists from sixteen to twenty four being held to be mainly responsible for what is perceived by many to be a decline in standards compared to previous European Championships.

On the face of it, more teams taking part has to mean lower ranked sides involved and so it’d hardly be surprising if the quality on offer wasn’t quite as it once was, but my own view is that it’s not the extra teams themselves that have been the problem.

After all, Hungary and the Republic of Ireland only came through the Play Offs, but were involved in some of the more memorable matches in the Finals, while the four countries most likely to be regarded as “minnows” (Albania, Iceland, Northern Ireland and Wales) in the tournament could all be said to have contributed positively to things in their different ways.

No, rather than the fact there were eight extra sides involved, the problem as far as I was concerned was the itinerary UEFA came up with to accommodate them.

What we had was a repeat of the approach used by FIFA in the three World Cups held between 1986 and 1994 whereby the twenty four Finalists had to be reduced to sixteen for the start of the knock out phase of the competition.

The 86 World Cup in Mexico is one of my favourites and a goals per game rate (gpg) of 2.54 is a pretty healthy one, but the contrast between the 2.33 gpg in the group stage to get rid of eight sides and the 3.00 gpg in the knockout stage is a marked one which suggests a different attitude prevailing in the latter stages of a competition which saw five goals scored in it’s Final.

By contrast 1990 was, in terms of the quality of football played, the worst World Cup I have seen since I watched my first in 1966. The gpg rating was a mere 2,21 – the 2.27 gpg in the group stages not being great by any means, but, this time the caution became more pronounced in the knock out stages as the gpg figure fell away to a meagre 2.06.

The last competition played under the current format was in the USA in 1994 and, with an overall gpg figure of 2.71, it appears that the system was working fine after it’s problems four years earlier. However, very tellingly, Italia 90 had been considered so damaging to the image of the game worldwide that changes to the offside rule and the stipulation that goalkeepers were no longer allowed to handle back passes were introduced and, almost certainly, it was these which accounted for the dramatically increased gpg rate.

There was an increase to thirty two competing teams in 1998, so the format used for the previous three World Cups had not been repeated until this summer at the Euros and, at the risk of boring you senseless with more stats, it’s interesting to compare gpgs from the last six European competitions since the format changed from eight competing teams to sixteen in 1996.

All of the competitions from 1996 to 2012 saw the same format used whereby sixteen teams took part and four groups of four produced the eight Quarter Finalists as the top two progressed.

Interestingly, when football came home in 1996, it did so with a truly awful gpg figure of 2.06 (explained, to a large degree, by the seven knock out matches only seeing nine goals scored in them).

Maybe others will know of something which explains why so few goals were scored in that competition, but nothing springs to my mind for me, Similarly, I don’t believe there were any rule changes which could explain why the gpg should shoot up so much in 2000 when it reached a very healthy 2.74.

Given that the gpg figures for the three competitions before 2016 remained remarkably consistent at 2.48. 2.48 and 2.45 respectively, I would suggest that the 1996 figure was just  a blip, but is it possible to think the same in 2016 for a competition which saw the eventual winners qualify for the knock out stages by finishing in third position in their group having not won a game?

I ask that because the tournament just ended saw just 2.12 goals being scored per game. This cannot come as a surprise when you have a group phase where mediocrity is rewarded to the extent that you have two groups out of six where the old format of best two from four applies and the other four give all competing sides a 75% chance of progressing.

With no way of knowing which groups will see two qualifiers and which ones three, there is naturally a feeling about which says we cannot afford to lose this game as opposed to one of we have to win today. Once you get to the last group game, then everyone has a fair idea of what is expected of them and so you do get an interesting and exciting night’s entertainment then, but it’s the two games before that where the problems occur as teams circle each other warily like boxers in the opening rounds of a title fight.

I daresay UEFA will stick with the current system for 2020, but I hope some thought is given to how else twenty four can be reduced to sixteen, or eight, before then because I believe that there is a strong possibility that it will be a case of more of the same then.

My, almost certainly too radical, solution would be to do away with the last sixteen round and ditch two thirds of the teams in the group stages. This could be done by having eight groups of three where only the winners got through – to avoid sides coming home after only playing two matches, I’d have a straight knock out plate competition for the rest with FIFA World ranking points gained being rated at the same value as in the competition proper.

In years to come how will people look back on Euro 2016? According to Wikipedia, the population of the continent of Europe is 742,452,000 – how many of those will smile at the recollection of a tournament in which thirteen of the twenty four competing teams failed to average a goal per game?

I daresay there will be ten and a half million in Portugal, three hundred thousand in Iceland and let’s also say there’ll be around three million in Albania, nearly two million in Northern Ireland and I suppose there’d be about four and a half million in the Republic of Ireland who might remember Euro 2016 with affection. As for the other seven hundred and seventeen million or so others, I daresay the answer you might get would be something like “crap football with a pretty ordinary side winning it, but I liked watching the little teams play and their fans were great”.

I've never seen the like of it before - the scene on Friday as the Welsh team and staff were welcomed home two days after they'd played in a European Championship Semi Final - okay, Portugal deserved their win in the end, but I still say there was nothing at all in the game until the first goal was scored and, if we could have got it, I believe it would have been us in the Final last night.*

I’ve never seen the like of it before – the scene on Friday as the Welsh team and staff were welcomed home two days after they’d played in a European Championship Semi Final. Okay, Portugal deserved their win in the end, but I still say there was nothing at all in the game until the first goal was scored and, if we could have got it, I believe it would have been us in the Final last night.*

Anybody still with me by now who bothered totting up those populations in the paragraph above will think my maths is faulty to get to that figure for the rest of Europe, but, there is, of course, the three million from Wales to include as well!

It’s been easy in the past to look at these tournaments impartially, but with your country taking part in one, all of that flies out of window! Even if many others will look back on Euro 2016 and feel little in the way of affection for it, that’s never going to be the case for anyone from Wales.

Indeed, I must admit to feeling a bit disloyal following my criticism of the poor quality of football and lack of entertainment on offer for much of the time, but the great thing is that if other sides were as dull as ditchwater, then I don’t think we can be accused of that.

I’ll admit that, given our scoring record in qualification and in the friendly games leading up to the competition, if you’d have told me that we would have reached the Semi Finals in a tournament dominated by defences, I’d have assumed that we would have got there on the back of a few 1-0 wins and the odd penalty shoot out triumph after low scoring draws, but far from it, very far from it.

We ended up behind only France as second top scorers in the competition and only they and Belgium were able to better our gpg of 1.67. Maybe I’m biased, but, for me, the Allen/Ramsey/Bale axis was as strong as any other similar threesome in the tournament (the first two named have been selected in UEFA’s team of the tournament today), while Hal Robson-Kanu, Sam Vokes and Jonny Williams all played their part in ensuring that our attacking game was amongst the most effective in the competition.

Yes, we were still, essentially, a counter attacking team which relied greatly on organisation and defensive discipline, but the best thing about Wales in Euro 2016 was that, if sides might have thought “stop Bale and you stop Wales” once, they can’t do that any more.

That professional attention seeker and wind up merchant Piers Morgan has, apparently, been getting some mileage out of claiming that the welcome home for Wales party on Friday when, according to some reports, something like two hundred thousand people were in Cardiff to personally say thank you to the squad, was all a bit over the top.

Sorry Mr Morgan, but just having a common Welsh surname doesn’t mean that you get what’s been going on in this country over the past month. Ask the people of Iceland, they get it, they get that a mouse (in the perception of many from outside our two countries at least) has roared – the heroes who engendered such a feeling of pride, happiness and unity in their fellow countrymen and women fully deserved that welcome on Friday and much more.

*picture courtesy of http://www.walesonline.co.uk/

 

 

 

Posted in General football stuff, Wales | Tagged , , | 6 Comments