Cardiff take advantage of Villa slip and the promotion finishing line comes into view.

When Cardiff City faced Norwich City back in our Premier League season, an incredible fifty eight shots were aimed at their goal over the two matches and yet, aided by a great deal of fortune, we ended up with four of the six points on offer.

An inspired David Marshall kept things at 0-0 at Carrow Road despite the home side having thirty one goal attempts and Norwich had only four fewer efforts to score when they were beaten 2-1 at Cardiff City Stadium. For all of Norwich’s good intentions, all they could manage was a Robert Snodgrass goal in the early minutes of a game they eventually lost thanks to an inspired start to the second half by City which brought them goals by Craig Bellamy and Kenwyne Jones within the space of a minute.

My memory of those matches was that, even as a biased City fan, I had to concede that Norwich were the better side in both games, but, by the same token, the fact that Norwich accompanied us into the Championship along with Fulham at the end of that season tells you that they weren’t in the habit of having twenty five plus attempts at goal in a match – the final league table told you they were a better team than us, but not by much.

Well, last night Brentford must have felt something like Norwich did five years ago as they added twenty four goal attempts to the twenty five they had at Cardiff City Stadium back in November and yet they ended up with one goal and no points to show from the two encounters.

City’s winning run now stands at an amazing seven matches and I would say that this latest victory was the most impressive one out of that septet. Brentford are no Norwich either. They have consistently been at the top of the Championship’s goal attempts and shots on target tables over the course of this season and are regarded as a very dangerous opponent capable of beating any side in our division on their day.

They also have a touch of the Fulham about them in that, unlike some, they play the game in the way we are told it should be played. Brentford are easy on the eye certainly and, although I wouldn’t agree with them, Fulham get the award for me, there are those who say they are best visiting side seen in a league game at our ground this season.

However, when you consider how we go about our business, it easy for some, myself very much included, to forget the things we are good at and stand in awe at how these sides that are infinitely more stylish and slick than us (or at least I think they are!) weave pretty patterns in front of us – I’d say “in front” being the operative words there.

I’ve seen last night’s match labelled Beauty v the Beast in some quarters and I’d say that anyone who needs to ask which team was which cannot be much of a fan of football in general and the Championship in particular.

However, the methods may be different, but the outcomes are not too much different when in comes to us and Brentford – they may be number one when it comes to goal attempts, but we are fourth when it comes to efforts on goal and second in the on target chart.

That on target stat is significant when it comes to this season’s City v Brentford matches as well, because the sides were level at seven each in Cardiff and last night we came out on top nine to six in a match which I thought was quite similar to the one down here in some respects.

Brentford must have left Wales four months ago rueing their luck after a 2-0 loss where they had played in a full part in one of the more entertaining matches we been involved in this season and the same could apply to our 3-1 victory at Griffin Park, but my memory is that, just as last night, we caused the Londoner’s defence all manner of problems whenever we attacked, while a lot of the myriad of shots and headers Brentford had at our goal flew high, wide and not very handsome (the genuine miss of the season candidate by Brentford’s Neal Maupay in the first match between the sides got plenty of mentions in Sky’s coverage last night).

Mind you, one difference between the two matches was how they started – in Cardiff, we began well and were in front through Joe Ralls inside the first ten minutes, while Brentford tore into us from the first whistle last night.

Indeed, the hosts could have been a goal up in fifteen seconds as we backed off our opponents in a most unWarnock like manner and we had to be grateful that Neil Etheridge was not dozing like so many of his team mates were as he produced a good save to keep out a Maupay effort.

The parallels with those Norwich matches continued – Snodgrass had scored in the fifth minute of the second game and Brentford were ahead a minute earlier as Marko Grujic was robbed in possession and Maupay was, rightly, adjudged to be just onside as he moved on to a pass and exorcised at least some of his Cardiff City Stadium demons by beating the onrushing Etheridge with a good, calm finish.

City were looking distinctly wobbly at this stage – Sky’s Don Goodman chose to praise Brentford’s effective pressing of the ball with their goal rather than criticise Grujic and they consistently won balls in dangerous areas of the pitch through this method in the first quarter of the match.It also needs to be said mind that we were contributing to our own problems with some particularly shoddy passing by some of our defenders at this stage.

As someone who had said he had seen a real decline in our level of performance in our last two matches (interestingly, the generally respected XG, expected goals, stats, as used on Match of the Day, had us losing the Barnsley and Birmingham matches which flies in the face of our normal results using this method), I’ll admit I could see nothing other than a, possibly heavy, defeat at this stage – in a game which had been labelled win or bust when it came to their Play Off hopes, Brentford were looking like they would be making sure that there was no way their promotion hopes would be ending.

In boxing terms, City had suffered an early knock down and were on the ropes looking to hold on in an attempt to ride out the Brentford storm – what I had not acknowledged though was that, occasionally, we were able to get off those ropes and put together some useful little clusters of punches ourselves at times.

In a sign of things to come, Kenneth Zohore used his mixture of pace and power to brush aside a defender and put over a low cross from which Callum Paterson forced the first of a series of good saves out of Daniel Bentley in the home goal, but the keeper was really struggling from the resultant corner as Junior Hoilett’s flag kick glanced off the crossbar and over.

City were still very much second best at this stage though as Bruno Manga (playing at right back with Sean Morrison returning to central defence) picked up a yellow card for a foul right on the edge of the penalty area, but at least, there were now a few of those good defensive blocks which have typified our defending over the past seven months to suggest that our heads were clearing somewhat.

Nevertheless, it still came as something of a surprise to see us level in the twenty fifth minute. Bentley made another good save, this time from Hoilett, and, as City unusually for them opted for a short corner, the ball eventually found it’s way towards the edge of the penalty area.

If City’s equaliser came as a shock. the scorer and the nature of the goal was a bigger one as Sol Bamba took a touch and then hooked in a shot which beat Bentley all ends up for what the inspirational defender called probably the best goal of his career.

What followed was, in some ways, as impressive as anything we’ve produced this season. One of my concerns about our previous two matches was a general lack of poise and authority in our play. Yes, I accept that this is not a team that will ever find it easy to take the sting out of a game by passing the ball around among themselves like so many others do, but there should be signs that we have the belief and confidence that comes with being second in the table with games running out and on a winning run – I didn’t think those things were there against Barnsley and Birmingham, but they certainly were last night.

That is not to say that we walked all over Brentford once it got to 1-1, they were still causing us problems and the under appreciated Etheridge was still being called into action, but the home side’s pressing wasn’t quite as effective as it had been and, if they hadn’t already known it after the game in Cardiff, we were showing we had the forward ammunition to cause them problems in open play as well as from set pieces.

After ending his scoring drought on Saturday, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing could, and perhaps, should have made it two goals in two games as he moved on to a lovely Loic Damour pass, but Bentley again did well to dive at his feet and claim the ball. The winger was looking more like the man voted the Championship’s best player back in August and, with Hoilett his usual bright and sharp self on the other flank, the home side full backs had their hands full.

Two seasons ago, Kenneth Zohore, then very much a hit or miss performer, almost rescued a point for City from 2-0 down as he scored and led the Brentford defence a merry dance in one of a few displays from that season which hinted that he may have something to offer at this level and last season, he scored his first goal of his campaign on Boxing Day as he started on the transition from candidate to be loaned out to Belgian football to one of the most effective strikers in the division over the second half of 2016/17.

So, Kenneth seems to like Griffin Park and it was he, backed up by the raiding Paterson, who became the biggest problem for the home defence. However, Zohore played very little part in the goal which put City into the lead as Paterson scored at exactly the same time as he had done against Birmingham on Saturday.

City were given a hand by Brentford though with some “flakey” football that you just could not imagine coming from us. In contrast to his goalkeeping, Bentley’s kicking had been on the erratic side all night and so it proved again when he played the ball to home right back Josh Clarke in a desire to “build from the back” and put him in an awkward situation which Hoilett exploited as he burst forward past another defender and crossed into the path on the onrushing Paterson who gave the keeper no chance with a first time shot from around the penalty spot

The home side could, justifiably, claim that they were unlucky to be behind at the break, but, in a less frenetic second half, City were able to largely keep Brentford at arm’s length while suggesting that they had more goals in them as well.

When one did come, it maintained Zohore’s recent penchant for scoring the sort of typical striker’s goal that he has, at times, looked incapable of providing – Paterson and Hoilett won headers following a Bruno Manga free kick and the Dane anticipated better than Wales Under 21 centreback Chris Mepham to nudge the ball in from inside the six yard box to follow up his recent efforts against Ipswich and Bristol City from similar distances.

Zohore also had a couple of headers which could have brought goals, but City had done enough as they managed to see out a late Brentford rally and there was the opportunity to get Gary Madine, Yanic Wildschut and Armand Traoré involved again after recent absences from the team.

The home side may have been hindered by the absence of a couple of important players through injury and the return of Madine, Traore, Morrison and Matt Connolly (who was an unused sub) suggests that things are better than they were for us on the injury front, but we were still without, arguably, our three most influential central midfielders (Ralls, Aron Gunnarsson and Craig Bryson), Lee Peltier, Jazz Richards and the two Wards (no doubt someone will remind me of the names of anyone I’ve missed).

Therefore, although our opponents will, invariably, be missing players through injury, I’d say that for much of the time since October, that’s applied more to us in ninety per cent of our games. To maintain a top two challenge so long in such circumstances is astonishing for a club that does not have the spending power of the the other five clubs that currently occupy the automatic promotion and Play Off places.

While such a fine win is reason to celebrate enough, there was even more grounds for optimism despite Wolves recording their second 3-0 win (this one over Jaap Stam’s struggling Reading) in a week to send out a signal to those who are saying they will end up in the Play Offs. Meanwhile, the side which demolished them 4-1 on Saturday came a cropper to the tune of a 3-1 home defeat by unheralded QPR. Aston Villa now find themselves seven points behind us and one in front of Fulham with all three of the teams who are probably playing to earn the right to accompany Wolves into the Premier League through the automatic promotion route having nine games to play.

Of course, we still have to go to Villa amid what looks a testing end to the season, but we are now in the territory whereby calculations can be made as to how we can make sure of a top two finish and the truth is that, no matter what happens at Villa Park, if we win seven out of our last nine, we are guaranteed second place, at least. Yes, it’s still a tall order to do that, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that the two sides pursuing us can afford very few further slip ups if they are to have a chance of overhauling us.

 

 

Posted in Out on the pitch | Tagged | 11 Comments

Mixed messages on and off the field, but Cardiff City keep on winning!

In his pre match press conference on Friday, Neil Warnock revealed that his Cardiff City team were three points short of reaching their pre season target which had been considered to be enough to achieve a top six finish.

Well, after City racked up a sixth successive win yesterday by dispatching Birmingham City 3-2 at home, that target has, amazingly, been achieved with a full ten matches to go. Whether seventy three points will turn out be be enough to get a Play Off place has to be arguable, but the fact of that matter is that the sides from seventh downwards now have to get fifteen points, at least, to catch us – that’s five wins and, in many cases, they only have nine matches left to get them.

So, by any standards, getting to seventy three points from thirty six games has to be seen as an outstanding achievement that everyone involved should be justifiably proud of. City’s results over the final three quarters of last season, combined with them being tipped by quite a few pundits as being dark horses for a Play Off position back in early August offered hope that 2017/18 could turn out to be be our best season since relegation four years ago with the belief that any promotion challenge would have a much more realistic feel to it than the one which almost went under the radar with even Cardiff fans back in 15/16.

However, right from the start, there was something about the season which offered the hope we could do more than that and the truth is that for around a month now, there has been an acknowledgment that, even after that miserable Christmas holiday period which most thought signaled the end of any serious top two challenge (I certainly did!), Cardiff City are not going to go away this season – they have as good a chance of a top two finish as anyone, in fact a look at the table tells you that, Wolves apart, they have a better chance of automatic promotion than anyone.

Most City supporters only have the one reference point to access when it comes to analysing what it is that gets you out of Division Two/the Championship as Champions or runners up and it seems to me that there are definite similarities between this team and the one that went up in 2012/13.

For example, although both turned in some very good, and entertaining, early season performances, generally speaking, the football is/was functional and effective as opposed to expansive and eye catching – I think it’s fair to say that there have been a few exceptions to this rule since we returned to this level in 2003, but, more often than not, the same could be applied to other teams who have finished in the top two.

I’ve mentioned it on here plenty of times before, but if I was asked to come up with the one quality which most summed up our Championship winning side it would be the feeling that, certainly from about November onwards anyway, the game was as good as won once  we went 1-0 up – there were exceptions to this rule along the way of course, but that team was very good at “seeing games out”.

This season’s side are definitely good in that department as well – I make it that the only matches where we have dropped points after scoring first are the defeat at QPR and the draw at Millwall. I was certainly getting that same feeling about the current team as I did with the one from five years ago as we went into Christmas and it was there again when we comfortably saw off top six challengers Middlesbrough and Bristol City in recent weeks.

Now, I didn’t get many supporters when I said “Not playing like that we won’t” after yesterday’s match on a messageboard in reply to the statement “We will pick up 22 points from the remaining games”  – in fact my sanity was questioned by some and I was accused of partaking of the “wacky baccy” by one contributor!

However, having had a few hours to sleep on what I said, I stick by it – the aura we had that made me feel pretty relaxed when defending narrow leads against much better sides (if the league table is to be believed) than Barnsley and Birmingham was not there in our two most recent matches. I can’t help thinking that we will need to up our concentration and application levels quite a bit if we are to come out of what looks to be a very testing next six matches with our automatic promotion credentials looking as strong as they have done recently.

On Tuesday, we performed pretty well in getting into a 2-0 lead very early in the second half, but then stopped playing for more than forty minutes as things became distinctly uncomfortable. Yesterday, we didn’t have that many dangerous looking attacks in the first half, but showed a ruthlessness in front of goal which had us 3-0 up at the break and, seemingly, on target to greatly improve our goal difference, but we ended up letting a team with a dreadful goalscoring record back into the game to the extent that home supporters were desperately calling for the final whistle by the end.

The Birmingham game was different to the Barnsley one in that there were quite a few chances for us to get that one more goal which would have killed our opponents off and it has to be said that a referee who was anything but a homer didn’t help matters either.

I’ve read recently that Peter Bankes is considered as something of a rising star in the refereeing community, but I wasn’t impressed at all by him. Although it’s a fair point to say that defenders are allowed to foul with impunity when defending dead ball situations in their own penalty area these days, I could see from the other end of the stadium that a Birmingham shirt had been pulled when Bankes awarded the visitors a penalty, so, by the laws of the game, the decision was a correct one. However, I will watch the club website highlights with a great deal of interest later today because, on the one viewing I’ve had of it so far, it looked one of the most obvious penalties I’ve seen in ages when Junior Hoilett went down in the area shortly afterwards and yet Bankes waved play on.

That was the stand out incident which annoyed home fans most, but it was far from the only questionable decision by the official and, this time at least, the chant “why do we always get shit refs?”, which has been heard at every game since Keith Stroud’s baffling refusal to allow Sol Bamba’s “goal” at Millwall, seemed justified to me.

However, our laxness and the disappearance of the killer instinct which was there in our finishing in the first half cannot all be explained away by a bad ref and I think at this stage it’s worth having a look at our opponents and the frame of mind they must be in.

I must admit to being quite fascinated by Birmingham since they, for reasons I cannot begin to fathom, sacked Gary Rowett last season at a time when they were genuine top six challengers. They have spent a lot of money in putting together a squad which, on paper, has a look of a top ten side to me, yet their results have been awful for a about a season and a half now.

Around the time, we were losing four successive matches, Birmingham were suggesting that they were, finally, getting things right as they only lost twice in eight league games, but, after being beaten in their derby game at Villa early last month, they have fallen off a cliff and came into yesterday’s match on the back of six consecutive Championship defeats.

Yet, when I heard their team being read out before the game, I found myself thinking again “why is this side where they are in the table?” – it didn’t take too long to start getting the first clues as to why they are.

Whereas Barnsley offered City a strong, physical challenge all over the pitch, it soon became clear that Birmingham would not do so – I wouldn’t say that were beaten before the game started, but their lack of confidence at both ends of the pitch was plain to see.

As mentioned before, it was hardly as if City were carving their opponents apart at will and it has to be said that when we got it right, we attacked well in the opening forty five minutes, but the visitors did have a tendency, which was also evident after the break at times, to cave in individually and collectively when put under any sort of pressure.

When it came to attacking, Birmingham looked neat and tidy up to a point, but there was a lack of belief in the areas that count which gave the clue as to why, despite a group of forwards that I’m sure some other Championship clubs wouldn’t mind having, their goalscoring record is so woeful (they’ve scored twenty five times in their thirty seven matches) – they would work themselves promising positions, but would find a way to make things just fizzle out from there.

In my messageboard conversation last night I said that Birmingham could have scored seven or eight times. On further reflection, that was an exaggeration, but the point I was trying to make was that they were able to get themselves into more dangerous positions than Middlesbrough or Bristol managed and it was their own failings, in terms of belief as well as ability, that was stopping them from being exploited rather than any good defending by City.

Although I don’t think any of our back four were at their best defensively, it seems to me that, as is often the case when we struggle in matches, the main problem lie with our midfield. Craig Bryson scored his second goal for City to put us 2-0 up and was having one of his better games in my opinion when he had to go off with about thirty minutes played and, after an uncomfortable showing when he came on as a sub against Barnsley, his replacement, Loic Damour, again struggled.

Damour has played his part in our fine season and, overall, it seems to me that he has been a good signing, but he gave the ball away consistently yesterday and as Greg Halford stood on the touchline ready to come on as our third replacement, I mentioned the possibility of us seeing that rare event – a sub being subbed. That did not happen and a beautifully struck volley from out wide that looked like it would have beaten Birmingham keeper David Stockdale if it had been on target, seemed to lead to a slight improvement in the Frenchman’s play, but he’s not had a good week and looks like he’s feeling the effects of a long season to me – in fact, after suggesting tiredness might have been a reason for the team’s fade out against Barnsley, I saw nothing yesterday which would disprove that theory.

It says something that the player who looked most likely to bring such much needed poise and control to our play in the middle of the park was the youngest member of the team – Marko Grujic still shows occasional signs of the affliction which dictates that all City players must make a mess of even the most simple pass from time to time, but he is growing into the team and stood out for me in the closing stages both in terms of his defensive anticipation and the way he was able to bring some order to what too often looked like chaos.

Yet, what I couldn’t argue against with those who didn’t like what I said on the messageboard is that we keep on winning. Fulham (2-1 winners at Preston) and Villa, with a 4-1 trouncing of Wolves (their 3-0 win at the Championship’s soft touch, Leeds, in midweek was not the statement of intent it appeared to be at the time then) may have won more impressively than us this week, but they do not get the extra points which would close the gap on us by doing that.

Wolves’ wobble means that it’s almost certainly two from four for automatic promotion now. Fulham, who have come through a run which saw them face six genuine promotion challengers in consecutive matches and end up of with five wins and a draw, are going like a train at the moment and, if any run in can look easy at this stage of the season, then they would appear to have it, while Villa will take great heart in not just the win over Wolves, but also the manner in which it was achieved.

However, while we seem to find taking on the poorer sides in this league to be more problematical than a team with our record should do, it also needs to be said that our record against the top sides is as good as any and better than most.

Also, of course, any discussion on our season so far and what the next ten matches may hold also needs to mention injuries. There was a story in the local media this week about the ten missing outfield players we had and, although Lee Peltier and Callum Paterson (another goal for him with a header from a lovely Joe Bennett cross for one of the full back’s two assists) played, Sean Morrison came on as a sub and Gary Madine was also on the bench, it looks like Bryson will be missing until after the international break in a fortnight’s time.

So, any criticism of yesterday’s performance needs to be tempered by an acknowledgement as to the number of players we have missing – the midfield, which hasn’t been perfect with one or both of Aron Gunnarsson and Joe Ralls in there would, nevertheless, be greatly strengthened if we could get them back for the Burton match on Good Friday.

There are conflicting messages coming out of so many of our matches this season – I keep on saying that a side which passes the ball as poorly as us cannot expect to finish in the top two, but they’ve been proving me wrong for thirty six games, so maybe they can continue to do so for ten more?

Finally, there was also something of a conflicting message about our finances this week as the 2016/17 Accounts were made public. Supporters’ Trust Chairman Keith Morgan (who knows far, far more than I will ever do when it comes to matters like these) has provided a commentary on the figures and there seems to be an acceptance that they are not a matter for concern, but the headline figure from them is that we lost £21 million over the period and I cannot help thinking that, with the figure for attracting Financial Fair Play sanctions being a cumulative £38 million loss over a three year period that there would be much more reaction to this news if we were struggling on the pitch, but then what do I know!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Out on the pitch, Up in the Boardroom | Tagged | 11 Comments