In his pre match press conference on Friday, Neil Warnock revealed that his Cardiff City team were three points short of reaching their pre season target which had been considered to be enough to achieve a top six finish.
Well, after City racked up a sixth successive win yesterday by dispatching Birmingham City 3-2 at home, that target has, amazingly, been achieved with a full ten matches to go. Whether seventy three points will turn out be be enough to get a Play Off place has to be arguable, but the fact of that matter is that the sides from seventh downwards now have to get fifteen points, at least, to catch us – that’s five wins and, in many cases, they only have nine matches left to get them.
So, by any standards, getting to seventy three points from thirty six games has to be seen as an outstanding achievement that everyone involved should be justifiably proud of. City’s results over the final three quarters of last season, combined with them being tipped by quite a few pundits as being dark horses for a Play Off position back in early August offered hope that 2017/18 could turn out to be be our best season since relegation four years ago with the belief that any promotion challenge would have a much more realistic feel to it than the one which almost went under the radar with even Cardiff fans back in 15/16.
However, right from the start, there was something about the season which offered the hope we could do more than that and the truth is that for around a month now, there has been an acknowledgment that, even after that miserable Christmas holiday period which most thought signaled the end of any serious top two challenge (I certainly did!), Cardiff City are not going to go away this season – they have as good a chance of a top two finish as anyone, in fact a look at the table tells you that, Wolves apart, they have a better chance of automatic promotion than anyone.
Most City supporters only have the one reference point to access when it comes to analysing what it is that gets you out of Division Two/the Championship as Champions or runners up and it seems to me that there are definite similarities between this team and the one that went up in 2012/13.
For example, although both turned in some very good, and entertaining, early season performances, generally speaking, the football is/was functional and effective as opposed to expansive and eye catching – I think it’s fair to say that there have been a few exceptions to this rule since we returned to this level in 2003, but, more often than not, the same could be applied to other teams who have finished in the top two.
I’ve mentioned it on here plenty of times before, but if I was asked to come up with the one quality which most summed up our Championship winning side it would be the feeling that, certainly from about November onwards anyway, the game was as good as won once we went 1-0 up – there were exceptions to this rule along the way of course, but that team was very good at “seeing games out”.
This season’s side are definitely good in that department as well – I make it that the only matches where we have dropped points after scoring first are the defeat at QPR and the draw at Millwall. I was certainly getting that same feeling about the current team as I did with the one from five years ago as we went into Christmas and it was there again when we comfortably saw off top six challengers Middlesbrough and Bristol City in recent weeks.
Now, I didn’t get many supporters when I said “Not playing like that we won’t” after yesterday’s match on a messageboard in reply to the statement “We will pick up 22 points from the remaining games” – in fact my sanity was questioned by some and I was accused of partaking of the “wacky baccy” by one contributor!
However, having had a few hours to sleep on what I said, I stick by it – the aura we had that made me feel pretty relaxed when defending narrow leads against much better sides (if the league table is to be believed) than Barnsley and Birmingham was not there in our two most recent matches. I can’t help thinking that we will need to up our concentration and application levels quite a bit if we are to come out of what looks to be a very testing next six matches with our automatic promotion credentials looking as strong as they have done recently.
On Tuesday, we performed pretty well in getting into a 2-0 lead very early in the second half, but then stopped playing for more than forty minutes as things became distinctly uncomfortable. Yesterday, we didn’t have that many dangerous looking attacks in the first half, but showed a ruthlessness in front of goal which had us 3-0 up at the break and, seemingly, on target to greatly improve our goal difference, but we ended up letting a team with a dreadful goalscoring record back into the game to the extent that home supporters were desperately calling for the final whistle by the end.
The Birmingham game was different to the Barnsley one in that there were quite a few chances for us to get that one more goal which would have killed our opponents off and it has to be said that a referee who was anything but a homer didn’t help matters either.
I’ve read recently that Peter Bankes is considered as something of a rising star in the refereeing community, but I wasn’t impressed at all by him. Although it’s a fair point to say that defenders are allowed to foul with impunity when defending dead ball situations in their own penalty area these days, I could see from the other end of the stadium that a Birmingham shirt had been pulled when Bankes awarded the visitors a penalty, so, by the laws of the game, the decision was a correct one. However, I will watch the club website highlights with a great deal of interest later today because, on the one viewing I’ve had of it so far, it looked one of the most obvious penalties I’ve seen in ages when Junior Hoilett went down in the area shortly afterwards and yet Bankes waved play on.
That was the stand out incident which annoyed home fans most, but it was far from the only questionable decision by the official and, this time at least, the chant “why do we always get shit refs?”, which has been heard at every game since Keith Stroud’s baffling refusal to allow Sol Bamba’s “goal” at Millwall, seemed justified to me.
However, our laxness and the disappearance of the killer instinct which was there in our finishing in the first half cannot all be explained away by a bad ref and I think at this stage it’s worth having a look at our opponents and the frame of mind they must be in.
I must admit to being quite fascinated by Birmingham since they, for reasons I cannot begin to fathom, sacked Gary Rowett last season at a time when they were genuine top six challengers. They have spent a lot of money in putting together a squad which, on paper, has a look of a top ten side to me, yet their results have been awful for a about a season and a half now.
Around the time, we were losing four successive matches, Birmingham were suggesting that they were, finally, getting things right as they only lost twice in eight league games, but, after being beaten in their derby game at Villa early last month, they have fallen off a cliff and came into yesterday’s match on the back of six consecutive Championship defeats.
Yet, when I heard their team being read out before the game, I found myself thinking again “why is this side where they are in the table?” – it didn’t take too long to start getting the first clues as to why they are.
Whereas Barnsley offered City a strong, physical challenge all over the pitch, it soon became clear that Birmingham would not do so – I wouldn’t say that were beaten before the game started, but their lack of confidence at both ends of the pitch was plain to see.
As mentioned before, it was hardly as if City were carving their opponents apart at will and it has to be said that when we got it right, we attacked well in the opening forty five minutes, but the visitors did have a tendency, which was also evident after the break at times, to cave in individually and collectively when put under any sort of pressure.
When it came to attacking, Birmingham looked neat and tidy up to a point, but there was a lack of belief in the areas that count which gave the clue as to why, despite a group of forwards that I’m sure some other Championship clubs wouldn’t mind having, their goalscoring record is so woeful (they’ve scored twenty five times in their thirty seven matches) – they would work themselves promising positions, but would find a way to make things just fizzle out from there.
In my messageboard conversation last night I said that Birmingham could have scored seven or eight times. On further reflection, that was an exaggeration, but the point I was trying to make was that they were able to get themselves into more dangerous positions than Middlesbrough or Bristol managed and it was their own failings, in terms of belief as well as ability, that was stopping them from being exploited rather than any good defending by City.
Although I don’t think any of our back four were at their best defensively, it seems to me that, as is often the case when we struggle in matches, the main problem lie with our midfield. Craig Bryson scored his second goal for City to put us 2-0 up and was having one of his better games in my opinion when he had to go off with about thirty minutes played and, after an uncomfortable showing when he came on as a sub against Barnsley, his replacement, Loic Damour, again struggled.
Damour has played his part in our fine season and, overall, it seems to me that he has been a good signing, but he gave the ball away consistently yesterday and as Greg Halford stood on the touchline ready to come on as our third replacement, I mentioned the possibility of us seeing that rare event – a sub being subbed. That did not happen and a beautifully struck volley from out wide that looked like it would have beaten Birmingham keeper David Stockdale if it had been on target, seemed to lead to a slight improvement in the Frenchman’s play, but he’s not had a good week and looks like he’s feeling the effects of a long season to me – in fact, after suggesting tiredness might have been a reason for the team’s fade out against Barnsley, I saw nothing yesterday which would disprove that theory.
It says something that the player who looked most likely to bring such much needed poise and control to our play in the middle of the park was the youngest member of the team – Marko Grujic still shows occasional signs of the affliction which dictates that all City players must make a mess of even the most simple pass from time to time, but he is growing into the team and stood out for me in the closing stages both in terms of his defensive anticipation and the way he was able to bring some order to what too often looked like chaos.
Yet, what I couldn’t argue against with those who didn’t like what I said on the messageboard is that we keep on winning. Fulham (2-1 winners at Preston) and Villa, with a 4-1 trouncing of Wolves (their 3-0 win at the Championship’s soft touch, Leeds, in midweek was not the statement of intent it appeared to be at the time then) may have won more impressively than us this week, but they do not get the extra points which would close the gap on us by doing that.
Wolves’ wobble means that it’s almost certainly two from four for automatic promotion now. Fulham, who have come through a run which saw them face six genuine promotion challengers in consecutive matches and end up of with five wins and a draw, are going like a train at the moment and, if any run in can look easy at this stage of the season, then they would appear to have it, while Villa will take great heart in not just the win over Wolves, but also the manner in which it was achieved.
However, while we seem to find taking on the poorer sides in this league to be more problematical than a team with our record should do, it also needs to be said that our record against the top sides is as good as any and better than most.
Also, of course, any discussion on our season so far and what the next ten matches may hold also needs to mention injuries. There was a story in the local media this week about the ten missing outfield players we had and, although Lee Peltier and Callum Paterson (another goal for him with a header from a lovely Joe Bennett cross for one of the full back’s two assists) played, Sean Morrison came on as a sub and Gary Madine was also on the bench, it looks like Bryson will be missing until after the international break in a fortnight’s time.
So, any criticism of yesterday’s performance needs to be tempered by an acknowledgement as to the number of players we have missing – the midfield, which hasn’t been perfect with one or both of Aron Gunnarsson and Joe Ralls in there would, nevertheless, be greatly strengthened if we could get them back for the Burton match on Good Friday.
There are conflicting messages coming out of so many of our matches this season – I keep on saying that a side which passes the ball as poorly as us cannot expect to finish in the top two, but they’ve been proving me wrong for thirty six games, so maybe they can continue to do so for ten more?
Finally, there was also something of a conflicting message about our finances this week as the 2016/17 Accounts were made public. Supporters’ Trust Chairman Keith Morgan (who knows far, far more than I will ever do when it comes to matters like these) has provided a commentary on the figures and there seems to be an acceptance that they are not a matter for concern, but the headline figure from them is that we lost £21 million over the period and I cannot help thinking that, with the figure for attracting Financial Fair Play sanctions being a cumulative £38 million loss over a three year period that there would be much more reaction to this news if we were struggling on the pitch, but then what do I know!
Thanks, Paul.
Your reports are even more valuable now that I can’t get to see the games.
Disappointing to lose that three-goal lead but one was to a “soft” penalty and the other came too late to be too worried about.
I think you are right when you say our ‘falling-off’ in our two most recent is probably down to the injuries to key players and that the bench hasn’t been strong enough. It is rather remarkable that we have managed to improve our league position when we have had such a list of injuries.
Let’s hope that some of them at least are back to fitness soon.
Thanks again Paul for another enjoyable summary.
I was both surprised and pleased that so many of the squad that have been injured or are carrying knocks were available yesterday. In reality only Ralls and possibly Gunnar are missing from what I would consider to be our best starting eleven. The big pluses are our captain and Madine coming back from their injuries and the improving form of the likes of Mendes Laing, Zohore and Grujic plus Paterson’s enthusiasm, drive and knack of being in the right place at the right time.
Two hard away games next up, was amazed that Brentford came away from Millwall with nothing after watching the highlights. We will do well to keep this unbeaten run going before the next international break.
Thanks Paul for your review and summary.
I always though we would win yesterday as you say the body language tells you a lot in games like this , Barnsley certantly were more up for it , however like this game I felt we could have scored a lot more goals in both.
I was so pleased to see Patterson and Peltier on the field for me these two are critical, Peltier is a fine (real ) full back in the super Kev mode, Patterson adds so much power , strength and height in midfield and he’s so dangerous in midfield .
Damour for me us good against opposition who give him time and he could show more at a higher level , he’s a very balanced player and does strike a ball well ,just gets caught at times with that extra touch or second .
Morrison appearance late on was interesting and uplifting , it showed me the presence he applies to the game and team , his ability in the opposition penalty box is better than our other two centre backs , along with Madine and Patterson I think those strengths will become so important in the games to come.
We have a first rate defence unit , our two forwards Holilet (fast becoming man of the season ) and Zohore are up thier with the best in this league.
If we can back fill our midfielder, learn to keep the ballin that area we can go up , I like Bryson he is a more than capable performer in this league (ask Derby fans ) the loanee firm Liverpool had his best game to date and as you say took control of matters when Bryson left .
Let’s hope Gunnerson is close it could seal our last hurdle to the promised land .
The next 7 games will tell us a lot about this team; I just can’t see an easy game in any of them with relegation threatened teams, promotion chasing teams and two away games (Brentford and Sheffield united) against good footballing sides whose positions in the table may be slightly lower than their best football deserves. If we can come through those games still in the top two then I can see us having a much better chance of winning the final three and going straight up. It’s going to be tough though, so many games in such a short period of time with a side, as you point out, is injury hit and not really blowing sides away.
Thanks once more for your write up Paul.
As usual when there’s a Tuesday/ Saturday double header I make a choice as to which match I travel to and on this occasion the Barnsley game won because of an unavoidable family commitment this week end. Nevertheless City’s fate was never far from my mind all day and I have to say I awoke on Saturday with a good degree of apprehension as to how we would fare. Firstly, the injury situation made me fear that our starting line up would have a much more ‘patched up’ look than it actually did. Also there were these various stats floating about – us with 5 straight wins – them with 6 straight defeats – seemed like a bubble that would inevitably burst. I also had come to thinking rather like some message board posters, that yesterday could be a pretty defining day in our season given the nature of Fulham’s and Villa’s fixtures. I’d felt a win could establish a real advantage against at least one of those two teams. Well, in the end we had our win much to my huge relief but the second part of my imagined scenario didn’t quite happen. In fact I feel our chances of automatic promotion are if anything very slightly diminished by the top four teams’ results yesterday. Ok I know Wolves are now back in the pack so to speak but I would have been much happier for them to sail away into the sunset and leave a much healthier gap between us and Villa. Yet, here I am sounding slightly pessimistic after 6 straight wins and eight wins and two draws from our last ten games. The problem is of course the nature of this season’s Championship.
Currently the top six teams in the Championship have an average points per game tally of 1.88. Not since 1997/98 have the top six averaged such a tally and that was the season that Sunderland finished third with 90 points (then lost in the play-offs!)
Before our two home wins this week I thought we probably needed seven more wins for an automatic spot. I’m still just about clinging to the theory that another five would do it but the form of Villa and Fulham and their easier run-ins suggest that there’s no guarantee that such a return would be enough. I’ve a feeling that not losing at Villa will become a necessary part of any automatic promotion success.
Thanks for the detailed write up Paul.
Again, have to agree with everything you say and especially reservations about the ref. Just glad we got over the line despite nerves as the second half wore on.
As you said, we could have made it easier if we had taken some of the other chances on offer when we were on top.
Anyway, for now am looking forward but sharing concerns of others re upcoming fixtures and the inexorable rise of Villa and Fulham.
Still we wouldn’t be happy if we City fans didn’t have something to worry about would we?
Cheers
Good Morning Paul and your devotees – Thanks again for another splendid review. Nothing for me with which to disagree. We should have won more comfortably at the end than we ultimately did, and I think had Zahore and then Hoillett been less selfish, we may well have had a five goal haul for the first time this year.
But what really bothered me on Saturday was the referee’s performance. No doubt the Birmingham fans will also have a view on this, but how he failed to award us a penalty when our Canadian winger was “fouled” in the second half was a complete travesty. Which brings me on to my main query. Do the authorities, League, Referees Association or anyone else review officials’ performances at our level? If there are such reviews, then what happens to them. If there aren’t, then perhaps there should be. I know we have a Manager who is quite prepared to bend the ear of the fourth official from time to time, but on Saturday he was positively apoplectic following the non award of penalty after the above incident. I, and others around me, had the feeling that a visit to the stand beckoned.
We should now surely make the play-offs, but with both Villa and Fulham gathering pace, we will need to defend better than we have done in our last two games to secure four points from our matches at Brentford and Derby. Fingers crossed.
May I make an observation on Zohore and Hoillett and ‘selfishness’ by saying sometimes we get frustrated when they try to put someone else in on the edge of the box but fail. Applause from the crowd for the possible chance and the skills in getting the opportunity but dismay at the end result of the move but sometimes I think it all looks a little easier from up in the stands than on the pitch! They always say the best strikers are immensely selfish and would push a team mate out the way in order to get the goal. Let us remember Zohore is still learning and sometimes the confusion of the quick shot and the pinball effect pays dividends as Paterson is proving by being there to feed on the result. So I want them to be more greedy and if they don’t get something then someone else may do. (I was going to write ‘will’ but this is Cardiff City after all).
After giving myself almost 48 hours to calm down following the events of the Birmingham game at the CCS I trust my ramblings may be somewhat more coherent and less vitriolic.
After some 30 years in the teaching profession, I think I am allowed to say that teachers (like referees) have a far better day when they go unnoticed. One who likes the limelight, one who wants to be centre stage, the centre of attention, soon ends up with bigger issues to deal with than a quieter approach followed by firm action when necessary produces. Sadly, Saturday’s official was certainly the Man of this Match.
Elder statesmen on this site will remember, ‘Jerky,’ Gurnam Singh. He was always able to give a controversial decision at any point during a game. He just always seemed to have that controversy in him just a moment away. So it seemed with Mr Bankes on Saturday.
I had been quite impressed with his performances on tv yet the weekend’s game was a case of chalk and cheese. I guess the most generous City fan would say his display was irritating; the more caustic I’m sure would be far less generous.
If the foul (sic) was indeed a foul that led to the Birmingham penalty then let’s have consistency and the resulting 50 penalties a game that would result. The abject surreal nature of that decision (“There’s more contact in Mothercare!”) was reinforced in any one of about a dozen incidents during the game when the visiting centre halves gave a passing impression of having a piggy-back at the expense of Zohore and Paterson. If Etheridge was guilty of time-wasting for a booking let’s be consistent regarding both the time and punishment. As bizarre as the penalty it had another to keep it company with minutes left. A free kick was awarded against Zohore on the visitor’s 18 yd line when the Brum keeper tossed the ball some 7 or 8 yds further forward. Zohore threw it back in the general direction of the free kick only for Stockdale, this time, to throw the ball 9 or 10 yds from the place of the offence. No response followed from the official yet there are occasions we see officials repositioning a ball by a foot or so for some kicks. Stroll on. Consistency please. Having criticised some decisions made by the official it is only fair to say that I thought he got the Hoilett non-penalty correct.
What of the game? The game before and after the penalty decision was the proverbable game of two halves. Much that I’d like to completely pin the change on the official, of more import was the change of role for the excellent Jota. In the second period he was released from the shackles of ploughing his furrow down his right wing and played in a more central free role. As he did for Bentford last season at the CCS, he impressed and caused havoc. If City do get promoted this season I, for one, would certainly not mind this midfielder playing in the blue of Cardiff City.
Against Birmingham City the Bluebirds again adopted a 4411 set-up: Paterson played behind Zohore whilst Grujic and Bryson took up position in the centre of midfield. Peltier took the place of the injured Connolly. Unlike the Barnsley game, Bryson showed a few nice touches before Damour took his place after 36 minites.
The three-nil score just before half-time was as comfortable a 45 minutes as you could want before the penalty and Jota changed that for an uncomfortable last 35 minutes. However the record book shows a 3-2 victory, 3 points won and a second position going in to the last 10 games of the season. Let us hope for a much fuller complement of players to select from after the international break, and the final lap of what is a fascinating end to the 2017-2018 season.
Paul,
Oops. Jota, of course, played for Brentford last season. Could you alter that in the post above?
Many thanks,
Steve. <
Stacks of house moving stuff to be done this week, so just some very quick observations regarding some of the points made in reply this time;-
Colin, starting tonight, our next four away matches are live on Sky, can you get that?
Jeff, I don’t think the games at Brentford and Derby are as testing, on paper at least, as they looked a month ago, but I reckon the loss of Gunnar and Ralls especially balances that – two draws wouldn’t be bad normally, but, with it now being Villa and Wolves’ turn to have a couple of home matches against lowly sides, we really need to win at least one of them.
Russell, I share your concerns about our midfield without Gunnar and Ralls – we coped a lot better in Morrison’s second absence than we did in his first and our results were good while Zohore was out, results have also been good so far without our two best central midfielders, but I wasn’t convinced by either performance.
David, it could well be that our last four matches will all be against teams with nothing to play for – that’s as good a run in as we could ask for really, but if we manage ten points from our next six games, I think we’ll have done very well (two wins and four draws would be fantastic!).
Richard, just imagine how we’d be doing if we could swap our 12/13 Christmas/New Year results with our 17/18 ones – take out the period 23/12/17 to 1/1/18 and we have to be the best team in the Championship.
Huw, I thought we may have been worrying about possible Play Off places at this stage of the season, but, automatic promotion? No way – I suppose I need to bear that in mind when I’m being critical of the team after their sixth consecutive win!
BJA, Neil Warnock has said that he still does assessments of referees after every match, so that system is still in place – I would guess there are still assessors in the stands at every match as well.
Stephen, I tend to agree with you, I’m not sure if Damour’s “tap in” would have been quite as easy as that if Zohore had passed to him, while I thought the problem with Hoilett’s miss was that he was taking by surprise by the defender’s miskick and so was never really properly set for his chance – ninety nine times out of a hundred, a forward is going to shoot rather than look for a colleague when they are in the sort of position Hoilett was.
Steve, Lester Shapter was the name I used to dread seeing on the programme when I was younger and, going back not as far, Barry Knight was another one. That incident when where Stockdale was able to take a free kick about ten to fifteen yards further upfield than he should have been was incredible wasn’t it. Regarding the Hoilett penalty shout, while I stick think it was a penalty, I must admit that, having seen it again on the extended highlights on the club website, I’m nowhere near as convinced about that as I was.