Championship behaving normally to leave misfiring Cardiff City still in with a chance.

I’m not sure if it was always said or whether it’s a twenty first century thing, but the received wisdom regarding the EFL’s second tier, the Championship. is that it takes around ten to twelve matches for each team for things to “settle down” and allow sides to find what may be called their natural position.

Well, as domestic football heads into its November international break, all sides have played eleven times – this represents just short of a quarter of a season.

For Cardiff City, those eleven matches have to be seen as a disappointment which I suppose could be explained away as a reaction to their Play Off defeat by Fulham back in July. Certainly, the spirit, determination, ruthlessness and, yes, ability which marked out many of their performances post lockdown has been largely missing in 20/21 so far.

Things have looked a little more promising in the two most recent matches which saw us put together what was clearly our most complete showing so far in beating Barnsley 3-0 and play pretty well against local rivals Bristol City in our last match before the latest international break – in fact, it could well have qualified as our second best performance of the campaign so far.

Unfortunately however, the impression left by the Bristol City game is a negative one because we were beaten while playing at a level above what has been seen in the majority of our games so far and usually teams that suffer that fate tend to be headed in one direction only – away from the top end of the table.

Cardiff currently find themselves down in fifteenth place in the Championship table primarily thanks to a poor home record which has them winning one and losing three of their first six matches at Cardiff City Stadium. Much has been made of how football has changed in the Covid era in that the absence of crowds has brought about a change whereby away sides are now favoured, but a look at that table tells you otherwise in this division at least – two thirds of the twenty four sides have gained more points at home than they have done away.

So, Cardiff should definitely be doing better at home than they are and the absence of fans appears to be something of a red herring when it comes to the reason why they aren’t getting better results.

Fortunately, City’s situation is not as concerning as it could be because, in typical Championship style, nobody has got off to a real flyer at the start of the season and so it still wouldn’t take anything too outrageous for a team to rise from the lower reaches to even the top of the table if they were to go on a really good run.

Up until a week or two ago, the division did have a side that came charging out of the starting blocks in Reading, but they’ve conceded nine goals in losing their last three matches and the possibility has to exist that they have done what we did in 2007/08 as we put ourselves five points clear of the rest by the end of October, but then hit a wall in November which saw us falling down the table towards our eventual lower half finish that season.

While the side at the top are, perhaps, on the slide, the fact that the three relegated sides occupy second, third and fourth places has to be a source of concern for a side like Cardiff who will still entertain thoughts of another top six finish.

I don’t think any of Watford, Bournemouth and Norwich are going to drop out of promotion contention in the upcoming months, they’ll still be there or thereabouts come May.

With the Cardiff Board, seemingly, expecting the team to be in the top six or much closer to it than they are currently at least, manager Neil Harris is under some pressure following the Bristol City loss, but will have a good idea of what to expect from our first opponent when fixtures resume on Saturday.

Having played for and managed Millwall, Harris will know exactly what to expect from his old club and, despite a concerning result and performance in their last away match at QPR, will know that his team’s away record lately is among the best in the division.

If Cardiff are to start climbing the league, it is essential that away results continue in the same vein as we’ve seen throughout 2020, but there are two stats which are far from in his side’s favour. First, although they did win at Craven Cottage in their abortive Play Off campaign four months ago, it is now twelve games since City won a match in London during a regular league season. Secondly, while only one of our last fourteen league encounters with Millwall have been lost, ten of them (including the last five meetings between the teams) have finished all square.

Furthermore, Millwall and Cardiff were tied for first and tied for third in draws last year with 17 and 16, respectively. The teams also have nine draws in their first 22 matches this season. Looking ahead to Saturday’s match, while home side Millwall is slightly favored at 29/20 compared to Cardiff at 37/20, the draw at 21/10 is the best value on the board (odds from Sports Betting Dime).

With this in mind, the match odds would appear to be pretty generous if you are a City fan and a win would be a great way of picking up spirits which had slumped after the Bristol game, but the draw look the better bet to me.

The truth is though that Cardiff are one of about ten sides in the division who are looking at their start to the campaign with a feeling of dismay – teams with a school report card which would say “must do better” if they existed.

Much the same applied to City a year ago and, with it being a year to the day on Monday since he was appointed, Neil Harris will know that he was able to get us into the position the Board expect us to be in last time around – also in his favour is that the late start to 20/21 means that fewer matches have been played by early November compared to a “normal” season.

So, there’s no need to panic yet. In my opinion, we spent about three quarters of 19/20 not looking like a top six side and yet that’s what we ended up as – it should be a doddle to do the same in 20/21 he says with fingers tightly crossed!

Posted in Out on the pitch, The Championship | 2 Comments

1-0 to the Wales – again!

Well, they’ve done it again! Wales maintained their lead at the top of their Nations League group today with their fourth 1-0 win of the competition to back up the goalless draw they played out with the Republic of Ireland in Dublin last month to stay ahead of Finland who won 2-1 in Sofia against bottom team Bulgaria.

This was a better game than the first meeting against the Irish, but, again, our opponents could feel they deserved better from it. Having had the majority of the few scoring chances there were in Dublin, Ireland were not exactly dominant in Cardiff, but the first three quarters of tonight’s match followed a similar pattern with Wales, just like they have done all autumn, struggling to create anything.

Wales and the Republic have been familiar foes in recent years and apart from the glorious showing in Cardiff a couple of years ago when an Ethan Ampadu inspired Wales were well worth both their victory and their 4-1 winning margin, encounters between the teams have been tight, tense and physical affairs with the fairly common red card shown – tonight offered more of the same right down to there being a red card to go along with seven yellow ones.

Before going on to describe the game, a few words about the side selected by stand in manager Rob Page. There was no Cardiff City representation in the starting eleven – whether Harry Wilson would have been involved from the start is doubtful anyway, but a one game suspension for two yellow cards in earlier games meant that Page couldn’t pick him.

However, leaving out Keiffer Moore was a contentious decision given he’d played well against the USA on Thursday and the part played by the target man in the improvement that enabled Wales to qualify for the Euros after a faltering start.

Before Moore came along, Wales had what looked like a mouth watering array of attacking talent with Gareth Bale, David Brooks, Dan James, Wilson, Tom Lawrence and Aaron Ramsey. Sadly, the last named has barely featured for his country since his couple of goals against Hungary secured that qualification mentioned earlier as injuries have taken their toll on him, but Page decided to return to thinking from around eighteen months ago by putting his faith in this group of technically accomplished performers as Bale played on the right, James on the left and Brooks as a false number nine/number ten.

Quite how this attacking line up equated to the 3-4-3 formation shown on Sky’s coverage, I’m not quite sure. For much of the time, the Irish centrebacks had no one to mark when, as I understand it, the object of a false number nine is to drag them about into areas they don’t want to go into – that was just not happening during the first half especially. Sky had got Wales’ three at the back right though with Joe Rodon, Chris Mepham and Ben Davies together against a team that had not scored in their last five games.

It all looked a bit too defensive a selection for me. It would be wrong to say that the selection of combinations of those six players I’d mentioned earlier had not worked in Ryan Giggs’ early games in charge – six goals against China and those four against the Republic showed that.

However, we were heading out of the Euros after those defeats in Croatia and Hungary in June 2019 and it needed the introduction of an attacking focal point in Moore to turn things around.

Mind you, three goals in six matches this autumn had shown that things were not working too well in an attacking sense with Moore leading the line either, so the decision to leave him out may have been understandable to a degree. Without him though, all Wales could muster in an attacking sense in the first forty five minutes was a shot from a free kick some thirty five yards out by Bale which had Irish keeper Darren Randolph concerned as it flew narrowly over the bar.

Wales seemed happy enough to pass backwards and sideways with no great urgency and, having mentioned Ampadu’s tremendous contribution to the big win over the Irish in 2018 earlier, I’m afraid he and Joe Morrell were distinctly second best to their counterparts in central midfield tonight – I’m not joking when I say that the best central midfield performance I’ve seen from a Wales player in the last two matches has come from Newport County’s Josh Sheehan.

Wales had no one who could match the incisive passing of Robbie Brady, who floated over a free kick in the opening two minutes for the man who represented the main Irish attacking threat, Shane Duffy, to nod wide when he probably should have scored. Brady then shot not too far over from the edge of the penalty area, before finding James McClean with a beautifully disguised ball whose shot drew a smart save from Danny Ward.

Welsh frustration was epitomised by Morrell’s kick out at Jayson Molomby in an incident which saw both players booked – the midfielder was lucky it was not a red card which would have meant he would have had to have joined Ben Davies, booked after a sloppy bit of ball control early in the second half which epitomized Wales’ performance at that time, who’ll miss the Finland match through suspension.

The Spurs defender stepping out from the back to try his luck from distance in the opening stages of the second period suggested a more aggressive Welsh attitude and Neco Williams, the one Welsh player to add a sense of urgency throughout the ninety minutes, seemed torn between shooting and trying to find Bale on the far post after he’d worked a good position for himself and the Welsh captain had a scuffed shot from around the penalty spot comfortably saved by a diving Randolph, but it was soon back to the stolid stuff of the first half as Ireland probed while looking precisely like a side with such a poor scoring record – when they did threaten on rare occasions, Wales, once again, had reason to be grateful to the likes of Rodon and Mepham for some very good defending.

Wales needed to change things and when Moore was introduced, it was for Rhys Norrington-Davies, who had just impressively beat Matt Doherty and knocked in a dangerous near post cross, but, generally speaking, had been one of the chief proponents of the backwards and sideways passing which Wales have been too keen on by half this autumn.

With Davies moving over to left back in what became a 4-2-3-1 formation, Wales looked more assured and business like as soon as the change was made.

That said, Moore’s first contribution was to earn a booking for a pretty obvious dive, but, shortly afterwards, he played a part in what was, by a distance, Wales best attack of the game so far – an attack which decided the match.

Ignoring the fact that he was now supposed to be primarily a defender, Williams started things with the sort of incisive run he’d been coming up with all night and then found James, who had looked the same clearly lacking in confidence player he had been in last month’s internationals up to then, but, this time, he drove to the byeline before delivering a fine near post cross which drew both Irish centrebacks towards Moore – Duffy managed to get a touch on the cross and it looked like the danger had gone, but Bale, arriving on the far post, did well to guide a header back which took Randolph out of the game and allowed Brooks to nod in from inside the six yard box.

By scoring in the sixty sixth minute, as opposed to the last ten minutes, Wales were able to show their talent for the counter attack to good effect in the time that remained and, although Irish sub James Collins forced three saves from Ward, they were all in the competent rather than brilliant category.

Up the other end, Bale shot narrowly wide, Randolph made the save of the game to deny Brooks after he had run from halfway and the keeper also did well to prevent Moore from scoring his first home goal, although, truth be told, both of the Welsh players he foiled should have scored.

With Wales’ brilliant defensive record and Ireland’s woeful scoring record, it looked fairly comfortable for the home team in the last quarter of the game until Williams blocked a header with his hand while defending a corner – the, correct in my view, opinion in the commentary box was that it would have been a penalty if VAR had been in use.

The last meaningful action of the game saw the already booked Jeff Hendrick chop down sub Tyler Roberts as last man and it was no surprise to see the ref show a straight red, rather than a second yellow, to the unlucky midfielder who had been left in a terrible position by a suicidal pass from a team mate.

So, provided they avoid defeat on Wednesday, Wales will win the group. As mentioned earlier, a few years ago, you’d have thought that any success we achieved would come off the back of the mixture of young and proven attacking talent we had, but this will be a triumph based very much on defence if we manage to keep the Finns out again in three days time.

Can I also remind you about my recently published book Real Madrid and all that which is available in e book and paperback formats and can only be purchased from Amazon.

I’d like to thank all of those who have posted a review of the book so far – it goes without saying that I’m very pleased with what the feedback has been like up to now!

Once again, can I finish by making a request for support from readers by them becoming my Patrons through Patreon. Full details of this scheme and the reasons why I decided to introduce it can be found here, but I should say that the feedback I have got in the past couple of years has indicated a reluctance from some to use Patreon as they prefer to opt for a direct payment to me. If you are interested in becoming a patron and would prefer to make a direct contribution, please contact me at paul.evans8153@hotmail.com or in the Feedback section of the blog and I will send you my bank/PayPal details.

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