Wales tear up the script and become the great entertainers!

When I learned the Wales team for tonight’s Nations League group decider with Finland, I posted on the messageboard I use that it was a negative looking line up. There would have been one change at least because of Ben Davies’ suspension following his second booking of the campaign against Ireland on Sunday, but Rob Page decided he would make two others.

Harry Wilson, returning after the suspension which ruled him out of the Irish game for David Brooks was like for like really when you think that the the Bournemouth player is working his way back after an injury ravaged 19/20, but I thought Connor Roberts for the relentlessly positive on Sunday Neco Williams would have an effect on our attacking game.

I surmised that Page was going to rely on our excellent defensive record as he sought yet another clean sheet to get us the draw which would win the group and earn us the promotion to Group A with all those matches against the cream of European international football.

With the defensively minded midfield pairing of Ethan Ampadu and Joe Morrell, it seemed to me that seven of the outfield players would be primarily concerned with defending, leaving all of the responsibility for attacking in open play with Gareth Bale, Dan James and Wilson.

It was going to be the sort of game that has typified both Wales’ play this autumn and a group where goals have been at a premium all along – the match would, in all probability be decided by a single goal, always assuming there was one.

Even though the current version of the game we are seeing isn’t quite the real thing, pandemic football retains one the sports greatest assets – the ability to make people who start to believe they know and understand the game look like idiots!

I say that because what we got instead of the widely predicted tight, edgy affair was a very entertaining encounter which really could have ended up with a scoreline of something like 7-4 as Roberts and left wing back Rhys Norrington-Davies ensured Messrs Bale, James and Wilson got plenty of the sort of attacking support I doubted they would get!

Of course, a red card for a Finnish player with barely ten minutes played had a huge bearing on the type of game it was, but, with Wales adopting a high pressing and forward thinking outlook from the first whistle, the signs were encouraging even before their opponents were reduced to ten men.

That high press helped produce a loose ball infield by Daniel O’Shaughnessy which presented Bale with the first of what turned out to be many opportunities to test Finland keeper Lucas Hradecky. The keeper was able to deal with the captain’s angled shot, but, with Ampadu and Morrell much more forceful and positive than they had been on Sunday, Finland were on the back foot in a manner which no Welsh opponent had been in their qualifying games so far.

Ironically, it was from the Finns first opportunity to test the Welsh defence at a dead ball situation that the incident which left them at such a big disadvantage for the remaining eighty odd minutes occurred.

Finland over complicated a free kick by going backwards before knocking the ball forward for one of their big centrebacks, but it was the team in white shirts that appeared the more confused by this attacking option because Wales goalkeeper Danny Ward was able to come a long way off his line to catch the lofted ball unchallenged and knock a long pass forward for Wilson to chase. Ward’s accurate ball played out of his hands was perfect for Wilson to run onto and he did very well to get in front of visiting wing back Jeri Uronen. For a second or two, it looked like Wilson was in on goal, but the inevitable foul followed as the City man fell to the floor and, as he was clearly the last defender, the red card which followed for Uronen was the correct decision.

Bale’s effort from the resultant free kick brought the next in the series of saves made by Hradecky from Wales’ top scorer, but this was one of the easier ones he would make.

It would have been tempting to think that the red card with eighty minutes still to play would have meant that the game was as good as over, but Wales’ front foot start was unusual for them because they’ve proved themselves to be natural counter attackers so far and there had to be questions as to their effectiveness as a team that would have more of the ball and the territory.

Also, Finland then had by far the best chance of the game so far when O’Shaughnessy got his contact with the ball all wrong when a corner arrived at his feet when he was unmarked six yards in front of goal.

Already there had been more action in fifteen minutes than you’d normally get in a half a game in this group and that was how things stayed until the final whistle.

Wales’ success up to now had been based on how good they have been without the ball, but here they slipped from those standards especially in a second half spell when the Finns must have begun to think they could come back from a man and 2-0 down to snatch the win they needed to qualify.

However, if Wales were not as organised or effective when defending as usual, they were as good in possession as they have been in at least a year. I’m thinking of the night when Aaron Ramsey scored twice to secure a 2-0 win over Hungary in a must win game that turned out to be a lot more comfortable than it was supposed to be.

After the scare of that miss by O’Shaughnessy, Wales settled down to play classic possession football against a side that were a man short as they moved the Finns around from side to side and worked themselves into positions well up the pitch from where some fine crosses were played in by the likes of James who produced a classic of its type to the sliding Bale who made good contact with the ball in a central position just over six yards out.

The best of Hradecky’s saves in his shoot out with a Bale followed, but the keeper had no chance shortly afterwards when Bale played a glorious through ball to Wilson of such simplicity that he didn’t have to adjust his stride at all before firing low past the keeper from ten yards out.

After that there are too many close misses and good saves from either side to catalogue. Finland, faced with the conundrum of having to chase goals while a man short were always going to have to live dangerously if they were to pursue their goal of topping the group and, as such, were always going to need a degree of luck if they were not to concede again. They didn’t get it, but, for long periods of the second half, they caused Wales much more problems defensively than any opponent they’ve faced in a competitive game since Chris Coleman left the manager’s job.

A year ago when Wales secured qualification for the Euros by beating Hungary, they went in at the break 1-0 up, then scored within a minute or two of the restart. It was plain sailing for them after that and there was every reason to believe it would be the same again against the Finns when Daniel James received a pass some twenty five yards out and crashed a right footed shot into the top corner of the net.

It was a terrific effort by the player who has had a tough year or so at Manchester United after his spectacular start there. James’ performance tonight was a reminder of what he has to offer any team and will, hopefully, lead to a bit more appreciation from those supporters of his club team who have been giving him a tough time in recent months.

For the next quarter of an hour or so, it just looked like it would be a question of how many Wales would score – Hradecky, James’ main rival for the man of the match award, kept on making quality saves as Wales continued to play to feet despite Keiffer Moore’s half time introduction in place of Lawrence.

Bale, having his most influential game in the Nations League so far, must have been wondering what he had to do to score and he was to go without a goal on the night when he was withdrawn by Page for Tom Lawrence around the hour mark in what seemed like a sensible move as the game looked to be already won.

However, how important Bale had been for the home side became apparent by how much they struggled in his absence. A couple of Finnish substitutions around the same time helped their cause as well and enabled the creative Robin Lod and Norwich striker Teemu Pukki to get on the same wavelength.

Wales had been warned when Lod picked out Pukki with a clever reverse pass which left him with an opening which he didn’t make the most of as he didn’t get a clean enough contact on his shot and enabled Ward to make a routine save. However, when Lod floated a similar ball over Rodon, who had been handed the captain’s armband by Bale as he left the pitch, Pukki fired home emphatically from a similar position to give his team renewed hope.

Within minutes Ward had to save urgently from sub Nicholas Hamalainen as the visitors sensed a way back into the game and there were other alarms for Wales as, with their admirable record of not conceding having stretched beyond twelve hours now gone, they began to look pretty unsteady in a facet of the game they had been rock solid in for so long.

While Wales were living dangerously at one end, the same could be said for the Finns at the other. It certainly felt that the game had at least one more goal in it and, once again, Wales showed their recently acquired, and very welcome, penchant for scoring late goals when James used his pace to get around the outside of his marker in the eightieth fourth minute to deliver a delicious cross of the type Moore has been starved of for club and country lately – the striker was never going to miss such a perfect opportunity and he buried his far post header beyond Hradecky.

Finland must have known the game was up then, but still they attacked when they could and Pukki hit the post after another fluent move by the visitors who impressed all night with their ability to move the ball cleverly in tight areas. It was a final fling really by the visitors though and, finally, Wales could celebrate qualification after a game which, yet again, proved football’s glorious unpredictability.

It all made for a far more entertaining spectacle than I was expecting and extended our unbeaten run in qualifying games to a very impressive eleven.

The Nations League has been a great success on many levels, but one thing it does do is pair sides with what are considered similar levels of ability – unless you win your group, you’re never going to test yourself against your “betters”.

Well, Wales can do that now and, hopefully, they’ll be able to take on the best in Europe at a full Cardiff City stadium in the next campaign. I won’t bother trying to explain what winning this group means as far as qualification for the next World Cup Finals or the 2024 Euros mean because I’d only show my ignorance of the procedures, but, apparently, we now have a second opportunity to do so if we are cannot make it through the traditional method – this really is a golden period for Welsh international football.

Just a few words on the Welsh Under 21 side to finish – they ended up a not very impressive looking fourth out of five in their Euro qualifying group after playing their final two matches in the past week, but with Germany and Belgium (who they beat at home) in there, it was a very tough draw for them and their games this week offered some promise despite many of this team having now reached an age where they won’t be available again at this level.

George Ratcliffe was the only City player in the side for Friday’s game with Moldova at Wrexham and he was barely tested as the home side cantered to a 3-0 win with all of the goals coming in the second half. Three days later, Mark Harris returned from suspension to add to the City representation for a game in Germany.

The earlier meeting between the sides has finished up as a 5-1 win for the Germans and a harsh looking penalty soon had them ahead – Ratcliffe then rashly gave away another spot kick soon afterwards, but this one was put wide. However a quality second goal had the home side two up with barely a quarter of the game played and they looked well on the way to another big win only for a neat and clever finish by Harris just past the half an hour mark to give Wales a foothold in the game.

There was no more scoring and, in truth, Wales didn’t really suggest they had it in them to get back on terms, but it was impressive how they hung in a game that started so badly for them – all in all, it’s been a good international break for us..

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Championship behaving normally to leave misfiring Cardiff City still in with a chance.

I’m not sure if it was always said or whether it’s a twenty first century thing, but the received wisdom regarding the EFL’s second tier, the Championship. is that it takes around ten to twelve matches for each team for things to “settle down” and allow sides to find what may be called their natural position.

Well, as domestic football heads into its November international break, all sides have played eleven times – this represents just short of a quarter of a season.

For Cardiff City, those eleven matches have to be seen as a disappointment which I suppose could be explained away as a reaction to their Play Off defeat by Fulham back in July. Certainly, the spirit, determination, ruthlessness and, yes, ability which marked out many of their performances post lockdown has been largely missing in 20/21 so far.

Things have looked a little more promising in the two most recent matches which saw us put together what was clearly our most complete showing so far in beating Barnsley 3-0 and play pretty well against local rivals Bristol City in our last match before the latest international break – in fact, it could well have qualified as our second best performance of the campaign so far.

Unfortunately however, the impression left by the Bristol City game is a negative one because we were beaten while playing at a level above what has been seen in the majority of our games so far and usually teams that suffer that fate tend to be headed in one direction only – away from the top end of the table.

Cardiff currently find themselves down in fifteenth place in the Championship table primarily thanks to a poor home record which has them winning one and losing three of their first six matches at Cardiff City Stadium. Much has been made of how football has changed in the Covid era in that the absence of crowds has brought about a change whereby away sides are now favoured, but a look at that table tells you otherwise in this division at least – two thirds of the twenty four sides have gained more points at home than they have done away.

So, Cardiff should definitely be doing better at home than they are and the absence of fans appears to be something of a red herring when it comes to the reason why they aren’t getting better results.

Fortunately, City’s situation is not as concerning as it could be because, in typical Championship style, nobody has got off to a real flyer at the start of the season and so it still wouldn’t take anything too outrageous for a team to rise from the lower reaches to even the top of the table if they were to go on a really good run.

Up until a week or two ago, the division did have a side that came charging out of the starting blocks in Reading, but they’ve conceded nine goals in losing their last three matches and the possibility has to exist that they have done what we did in 2007/08 as we put ourselves five points clear of the rest by the end of October, but then hit a wall in November which saw us falling down the table towards our eventual lower half finish that season.

While the side at the top are, perhaps, on the slide, the fact that the three relegated sides occupy second, third and fourth places has to be a source of concern for a side like Cardiff who will still entertain thoughts of another top six finish.

I don’t think any of Watford, Bournemouth and Norwich are going to drop out of promotion contention in the upcoming months, they’ll still be there or thereabouts come May.

With the Cardiff Board, seemingly, expecting the team to be in the top six or much closer to it than they are currently at least, manager Neil Harris is under some pressure following the Bristol City loss, but will have a good idea of what to expect from our first opponent when fixtures resume on Saturday.

Having played for and managed Millwall, Harris will know exactly what to expect from his old club and, despite a concerning result and performance in their last away match at QPR, will know that his team’s away record lately is among the best in the division.

If Cardiff are to start climbing the league, it is essential that away results continue in the same vein as we’ve seen throughout 2020, but there are two stats which are far from in his side’s favour. First, although they did win at Craven Cottage in their abortive Play Off campaign four months ago, it is now twelve games since City won a match in London during a regular league season. Secondly, while only one of our last fourteen league encounters with Millwall have been lost, ten of them (including the last five meetings between the teams) have finished all square.

Furthermore, Millwall and Cardiff were tied for first and tied for third in draws last year with 17 and 16, respectively. The teams also have nine draws in their first 22 matches this season. Looking ahead to Saturday’s match, while home side Millwall is slightly favored at 29/20 compared to Cardiff at 37/20, the draw at 21/10 is the best value on the board (odds from Sports Betting Dime).

With this in mind, the match odds would appear to be pretty generous if you are a City fan and a win would be a great way of picking up spirits which had slumped after the Bristol game, but the draw look the better bet to me.

The truth is though that Cardiff are one of about ten sides in the division who are looking at their start to the campaign with a feeling of dismay – teams with a school report card which would say “must do better” if they existed.

Much the same applied to City a year ago and, with it being a year to the day on Monday since he was appointed, Neil Harris will know that he was able to get us into the position the Board expect us to be in last time around – also in his favour is that the late start to 20/21 means that fewer matches have been played by early November compared to a “normal” season.

So, there’s no need to panic yet. In my opinion, we spent about three quarters of 19/20 not looking like a top six side and yet that’s what we ended up as – it should be a doddle to do the same in 20/21 he says with fingers tightly crossed!

Posted in Out on the pitch, The Championship | 2 Comments