Thirteen proves lucky for impressive Cardiff City – how was it only 1-0 though?

My pre match prediction for Cardiff City’s lunchtime home game with Birmingham City was for a low scoring draw. The fact Birmingham had drawn 0-0 at highly fancied Luton on the opening day of the season and followed that up with a 2-1 win against Huddersfield at St. Andrews and City had thrown away a lead at Reading in losing 2-1 and then were humiliated 3-0 in losing at home to Portsmouth in the League Cup (thereby dissipating the almost euphoric feeling of the Norwich win in the season opener) had a bit to do with that call of mine.

Mostly however, it was because I thought the temperatures edging towards the mid thirties in a ground which had very few shaded areas because of the early kick off would lead to a cagey, slow paced affair in which attackers would have to fend for themselves as it would be so hard for midfield runners to join them.

Seeing that the result was 1-0, someone just learning of that outcome might say to me that my prediction of the result was wrong, but the score line suggests that I was right about it being a weather dominated affair with chances at a premium.

The truth is though that I was hopelessly wrong about the type of game it became. There should have been five or six goals scored and all bar one of them should have ended up in the Birmingham net!

Yes, City had a spell of about half an hour in the second half when they ran out of steam somewhat and the visitors had their biggest share of the ball of the afternoon, but then City got a bit of a second wind in the closing stages and there were a few more scares for a Birmingham side who were thoroughly outplayed in the main..

Now, despite what I said earlier about Birmingham’s encouraging start to their season, it’s true to say that we’ve faced two of the three teams widely tipped to go down in our opening trio of fixtures – Reading, the other relegation bound side according to the pundits we’ve come up against are currently getting tonked 4-0 at the other team who are supposed to be playing League One football next season, Rotherham. So, that rather puts our result last weekend into some sort of perspective.

However, to dismiss today’s second win of the season by saying “it was only Birmingham” would be wrong – the fact is that City played very well and I believe they would have been too good for the majority of the teams in the division playing like they did.

Steve Morison made a couple of changes from the last league fixture, one completely predictable and the other a little surprising. Perry Ng’s return from suspension meant that he was always likely to come in for Curtis Nelson (especially when considering that he gave away penalties in both of the games he played and was at fault with Portsmouth’s opener in midweek), but Jaden Philogene for Sheyi Ojo was a bit of a shock.

Last weekend, City were quick out of the traps, but couldn’t maintain their form beyond the twenty minute mark. It was different today. The fast start was maintained for forty five minutes despite the searing heat and Birmingham couldn’t live with us.

There was an awful lot to enjoy in City’s performance – for me it was especially pleasing that this was a triumph built around the new approach Steve Morison is introducing and it’s fair to say that this was the best example yet of what the future may hold if we can start playing like we have done against Norwich and Birmingham on a consistent basis..

Yes, I take on board that this is a new team and even with a sample of only three league matches to consider, there has been a wide disparity in performance levels, but I’ve now thoroughly enjoyed two out of three Championship games (that’s not just because we won them) and that’s way above average for the Cardiff City of recent seasons.

Reading this gushing praise while considering what the score was points to an obvious negative aspect of the game and I’ll come to that later, but, for now, I want to accentuate the positive, to quote a song from well before I was born!

The tone was set in the opening minutes when Mahlon Romeo put in the sort of tackle all football fans love, Romeo’s tackle was hard, but fair and kept City on the front foot having already put together a neat move which ended with Ryan Wintle shooting about four foot wide.

City enjoyed a lot of success down the right as they exploited the space behind wing back Placheta very effectively. The goal arrived in the seventeenth minute, butwe should have already been one up by then as goalkeeper John Ruddy was forced to make two good saves in quick succession as Callum O’Dowda was put away down the right by a fine Romeo pass.

When O’Dowda was sent clear into the same area after a flowing twelve pass City move in which Wintle was twice able to give examples of the range of his distribution, the winger was able to continue to the bye line and provide pass number thirteen  in the form of a low cross which took Ruddy out of the game and allowed Philogene, stood in glorious isolation on the far post about four yards out, to tap into the net.

I was one of a number of City fans who commented on O’Dowda’s lack of goals and assists at Bristol City when he arrived, but a goal and two assists in his first three matches has rather made such carping look a bit daft and he really could and should have had more of both today, but his selection as Sky’s Man of the Match tells you all you need to know about his contribution.

So much of City’s first half supremacy stemmed from their almost complete domination in midfield – I’ll repeat that, so much of City’s first half supremacy stemmed from their almost complete domination in midfield.

In seasons past when City were trying, and failing, to incorporate some playing out from the back into their long ball game, we got used to seeing whoever was playing in goals, our back three defenders and Marlon Pack trying to do what Ryan Allsop, Ng, Cedric Kipre and Wintle were doing today. The contrast between the two groups is astonishing – it used to be laborious and went nowhere, but today, in conditions which, granted, hardly encouraged a high pressing game from our opponents, it looked so easy and was a regular launchpad for attacks.

It needs to be noted that Birmingham were missing Ryan Woods who is, apparently, on the brink of signing for Hull and had a teenage debutante Alfie Chang, another teenager in Welshman Jordan James (who’s a regular starter) and a very ineffective Bacuna (no, not him, his brother Juninho) in midfield, but, again, when Wintle, Adam Rinomhota (who was giving opponents a yard start and sprinting past them in the final few minutes of the game and also getting up after treading on the ball and winning it back again within seconds in the first half) and Romaine Sawyers, the sort of creative, composed player we haven’t seen in ages in a City shirt, are on song they’re a match for many in this division.

Birmingham had two moments when their hopes of an equaliser might have had an air of realism to them. The first came around the half hour mark when their best piece of approach play put Scott Hogan in the clear in the middle of the pitch, but before he could get a shot away, Jamilu Collins caught him and put in a great last ditch tackle which saw the ball end up in Allsop’s hands via the Birmingham striker.

The other one occurred early in the second half when Hogan got clear of Kipre and went down when there was contact between the two players – I expected a penalty to be given, but instead, the hair banded ref Darren Bond, who let a lot of things go, but was consistent in his decision making, gave a goal kick and booked Hogan for either or both of dissent and diving. Even here though, City could say they had a better claim for a spot kick when O’Dowda looked to be fouled by James and both managers were agreed after the game that there should have been a penalty for either side.

City managed to beat Norwich with an XG (expected goals) figure of just 0.08, so Birmingham’s 0.09 today did not guarantee us a clean sheet, but it did tell the story of a good afternoon’s work by a defence which did not have the best of times of it last weekend and Allsop, in one of the quieter games of his career I’d bet, only had two crosses to easily catch and a corner in added time to punch away as far as I can remember.

So, the midfield was purring, the defence and goalkeeper solid and generally comfortable and, having had the creativity of the team questioned in the three matches played before today, there were plenty of chances out there with a string of crosses from wings and full backs to feed off.

The BBC’s match stats show possession 57/43 in City’s favour, with sixteen goal attempts to four and seven to nil when it came to on target efforts – I believe City’s XG figure was 2.8 which is a highest so far under Steve Morison’s management apparently.

So, why was it only 1-0 then? The answer has to be that the opposition goalkeeper had a good game and our finishing was just not good enough. I mentioned earlier that City should have been in front before they scored – this came in the seventh minute when O’Dowda was again given the freedom of the right wing to pick out Sawyers on the penalty spot whose shot was blocked by Ruddy who then reacted well to keep out Max Watters’ follow up effort, but one of the chances should have been put away.

There were encouraging aspects in the performance of Watters, who left the action at half time because of illness, but he missed the sort of chance he would surely have put away in an MK Dons shirt last season as O’Dowda played him in on goal, but there appeared to be one touch too many by the striker and Ruddy again saved his team by turning the shot away for a corner. There was also a mis control when in a good position shorty before the interval when he made way for Mark Harris.

It wasn’t just Watters who was culpable, O’Dowda had two decent opportunities at the start of the second half which were again kept out by Ruddy.

After this, Birmingham had their better spell and you began to wonder if City had put too much into their first half in the fierce heat, but the truth was probably that Birmingham, with all of the running without the ball they had to do in the first period, had very little left to give as well and it was City who threatened to score the game’s second goal late on with the four subs City they introduced (why not use all five in such conditions?) to the fore.

First, Rubin Colwill, who I thought did well in a deeper lying role, picked out Harris with a lovely pass. From there the home grown forward beat his man and clipped in a cross which was just crying out to be nodded in by Kion Etete, but the Cheltenham fans who said he wasn’t good in the air for his height were given some validation in that opinion when he headed a yard wide from an unmarked position six yards out. That apart, Etete did okay and almost reached a Romeo cross shot before Ruddy and, finally, there was a curled effort from Ojo which drifted just wide with Ruddy beaten.

So, yes, there should have been more goals, but, as our manager said, they’ll surely come if we keep on creating chances like we did today – all in all a very encouraging ninety minutes to follow on from two less convincing showings.

I’m typing this as Manchester United are being battered 4-0 at Brentford, so maybe scoring four against them like City’s under 18s did yesterday in another pre season match for them is not as impressive as it sounds at first – especially when you recall that a Jon Brown inspired City beat them 5-1 in the only previous meeting at this level between the teams in 2007 I believe it was.

Seriously, congratulations to the youngsters on a great win. Disappointingly, and just as they didn’t for the game with Liverpool a couple of weeks ago, City’s Academy Twitter site has nothing about the game at all, but I’m grateful to the messageboard poster who confirmed that, after trailing 2-1, City were 4-2 winners thanks to goals from Adam Coomer, Tanawsya, Trey George and Morgan Lewis.

Finally, as has been the habit at the start of a new season in recent years, can I ask readers if they’re willing to make a donation towards the running costs of the blog. I say running costs towards the blog, but, that’s not really true this time because this year any donations will go towards costs incurred in the production and publication of the book I aim to have out for sale by October.

As mentioned this time last year, I decided to do another review of a season to follow on from Real Madrid and all that which was about 1970/71. This one is about the 1975/76 season and will be called Tony Evans walks on water. Currently, I would say I’m about 90 per cent of the way through the writing of the book – I should finish that by mid August and then it will be a question of tidying it up, proof reading, inserting a few photos and designing a cover  before sending it off for printing.

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