Sport would never be the attraction it is for billions all over the world if the best individual or team always won. I’m not going to guess what percentage of times the individual or team that is inferior on paper ends up winning, but it is a fairly common occurence and that is why so many supporters of underdogs keep on coming back for more when their team is beaten by their “superiors”
As to why favourites end up losing, there are all sorts of reasons. Bad luck, controversial decisions by officials and individual errors spring to mind, but these are included in what happens out on the pitch, court, track etc over the course of the contest – there are other reasons which are more psychological that often have their roots in the, much longer, periods when the people involved are not out there in the spotlight performing.
It could be that there are problems at home which effect performance or the there may be an issue with the everyday working environment. That last one would, from the outside at least, be the thing which best explains why the Chelsea team of 2015/16 and the Manchester United side of this season were so often beaten by their inferiors in the first half of those campaigns – to have Jose Mourinho in sullen, defeatist and introspective third season mode is quite a handicap for any team to carry, no matter how much talent there is on the playing staff.
In both of these cases mind, Mourinho could look at the contributions of important members of his teams and legitimately question their effort levels (he’s not the first manager that some of Chelsea’s big names have downed tools over in the last few seasons either), but one of the great managers of this century also has this strange third season problem which sees him as very much a short to medium term fix, but definitely not a long term one.
If City had been in the Premier League in 15/16, I would have been confident we could have taken something from a match with Chelsea at home before Christmas, but not after it because that was when Guus Hiddink had taken over as their caretaker boss and results began to perk up for the Londoners.
Last Sunday as Manchester United’s players slinked off the pitch at Anfield beaten by 3-1, but far further behind Liverpool than that in terms of morale, vibrancy and wow factor, I thought to myself that it was almost as if they would be underdogs coming to Cardiff six days later to play a side which had won four out of it’s last five home matches.
Player for player, Manchester United were far better than us, but that appeared to count for very little because, even from the outside, it was easy to see that there were serious problems at that club.
I know I was not the only City fan quietly confident of getting at least a draw, because there were so many who had told me this over the past five or six days. However, in almost every case, they would then qualify what they were saying by adding something like “until they sacked Mourinho that is”!
I was listening to the radio on Monday morning when the news broke that Mourinho had been dismissed and, whereas everything I was hearing after that was about “where do United go from here?”, my immediate thouights were along the lines of “well that makes things much, much more difficult for us next Saturday” – I’m pretty sure that I was only thinking what thousands of other City fans were at that exact same moment as well.
I’d remarked a week or two back on here that we have not been having much luck in terms of what’s been happening to upcoming opponents at Cardiff City Stadium recently. Obviously, the helicopter tragedy at Leicester put things into perspective as far as the importance of a sporting event at that time, but City were placed in an awkward position by the whole thing and were, seemingly, affected by being very much supporting cast on a day when the eyes and thoughts of not just the football world were on the Leicster team and their fans.
We coped better with the challenge of facing a Southampton team playing their first match under a new manager, but today threatened to be a completely different matter as Manchester United came here under the charge of a caretaker boss who was very much a club superstar – indeed, I’ll use that much overused and undervalued word “legend” because he had done enough during his time as a player at Old Trafford to have truly earned that title.
The fact that the Manchester United legend happened to be Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, who just so happened to be a complete failure in his eight and a half months as manager here at Cardiff, might have have been seen as something to get City fans into an optimistic frame of mind, but it was never going to happen in this case in my opinion.
Even if Ole is really as bad as he looked at times down here, he was always likely to make a positive start in his second managerial job in this country because, firstly, he had so much goodwill behind him and, secondly, simply because he wasn’t Jose Mourinho!
In the event, a final score of Cardiff 1 Manchester United 5 could not have come as a complete shock to anyone really and, fair play to them, Ole’s new team played some lovely attacking football at times as they completely controlled most of the game.
Their third goal especially was a thing of beauty which I couldn’t help but compliment with the words “cracking goal” as the ball hit the net.
I’ve not seen a Manchester United team play like that going forward for quite some time (since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement maybe) and when the favoured team plays as close to it’s potential as they did tonight, the chances of seeing one of those upsets I mentioned at the start diminsh dramatically.
However, many of the basic rules when analysing a sporting contest still apply – for example was the outcome more down to the brilliance of the winners or was it because the losers were so poor? Sadly, good as United were, I think there is a case for saying that it was more, or equally at least, down to the ineptitude of the losers tonight.
What I found most concerning about City was that, just as at Watford last weekend, our opponents found it so easy to pass their way through us. For the second weekend in a row, our goalkeeper kept the score down with a series of saves that, once again, probably earned him the City Man of the Match award.
In saying that, Neil Etheridge, according to this week’s Elis James Feast of Football podcast he may well only miss the Gillingham FA Cup tie while away on Asia Cup duty with the Philippines next month, did seem to me to possibly be at fault with the first goal scored in the third minute by Marcus Rashford. I say this because the shot from the free kick went past the wall and into the net with our keeper motionless. I’m writing this straight after getting home from the game, so have only seen the goal once, but it just struck me that something seems wrong when a goalkeeper doesn’t move and the ball goes past a wall like that – one or the other of them must have been wrongly positioned surely?
For the second consecutive match, City were too often chasing shadows. Frustrated fans first attempted to make referee Michael Oliver the villain of the piece, but, while there were some odd looking decisions by the official at times, he was never the reason for Manchester United’s overwhelming superiority through much of the first half.
The stats show that City, the fifth “cleanest” team in the Premier League apparently, only picked up the two yellow cards and no doubt this will lead to charges by some fans that we are being too nice for our own good. I think there is something to that point of view, but would say that, for all I know, the intent might have been there to rough up our opponents a bit tonight, but we never got close enough to them to do that.
Ander Herrera, apparently with the help of a slight deflection, made it 2-0 around the half hour mark and, embarrassingly for City, we then saw the first signs of something which was there for much of the match – it had the look of a training game at times.
Therefore it came as a surprise to see Rashford carelessly concede a penalty for handball which Victor Camarasa put away in a manner that makes you think he’ll be able to convert any more spot kicks we are awarded this season.
Against Mourinho’s United of this season, that goal might have been the signal for a fightback and, perhaps, even a point or three for City. However, instead, the visitors responded with slick passing which sliced us apart completely as Anthony Martial provided the finish a superb move demanded.
The game was as good as over twelve minutes into the second half as Lingard slotted in a penalty awarded after he had been fouled by Sol Bamba. So, even the period when City finally offered some attacking threat, this may have been down to a certain amount of easing off by the visitors. Nevertheless, it did offer evidence of defensive frailties which better teams than City could still exploit in the coming weeks – even if Ole turns out to be just what Manchester United need at this time, there is nothing in his managerial CV which says he will be able to transform what is a very ordinary defence without significant specialist help.
David De Gea had to make a few saves as City finally gave the crowd something to get excited about and there was a Bamba header that flew just wide, but the only further scoring came from the visitors late on as Sol was robbed of possession and Lingard waltzed through a tired and demoralised defence to make it five.
City have been completely outplayed in their last two matches I’m afraid and, although Manchester United might develop into one in the coming months, neither of the teams responsible for this can be called members of the division’s elite.
We seemed tired and somewhat devoid of that spirit which was seen to good effect in our last three home wins tonight and we need a performance soon to set aside a nagging doubt that we have been “rumbled” – the aggregate score in our last two matches has been 3-8 and I’d say that definitely flatters us,
Trying to find positives, I thought Greg Cunningham, who replaced the injured Joe Bennett, did pretty well, there were touches of class from Camarasa and Kenneth Zohore’s half hour contribution off the bench was, unquestionably, the best we’ve seen from him this season. As mentioned earlier, Etheridge again made some fine saves, but there was little else to offer hope – Bruno Manga was as poor at right back as I’ve seen him, Harry Arter was something of a headless chicken, Gunnar struggled, Junior Hoilett offered little, Josh Murphy flattered to decieve again and Callum Paterson battled manfully, but to little effect.
It really was a night where City’s limitiations were exposed. Manchester United were responsible for much of this, but as I listend to a succession of their supporters, basically, saying encouraging but it was only Cardiff on 606 as I drove home, I was forced to, reluctantly, agree with them – Ole’s former team really did give his new one the most gentle of introductions to that club’s new managerial regime.
At least there was better news from the Under 18s as they headed into their Chrstmas break with a 2-0 win at third placed Millwall to consolidate their place at the top following their home defeat by Ipswich last weekend. Three weeks ago, Millwall had the better of a 1-1 draw at Leckwith between the teams, but this time they had no answer to a couple of Dan Griffiths goals in the first quarter of the game as City extended their lead over them to six points – we are now three points ahead of second placed Ipswich and have a game in hand over them and Millwall.
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Thanks, Paul, it can’t be easy writing a report on a game that appears to have been a dire and depressing experience for the home support.
Once again I have seen nothing of the game, seems I’m lucky on this occasion, and as the game was covered by BT Sport nor am I likely to. Instead I had the ‘pleasure’ of watching Hull at home to the ‘Jack Bastards”. Even though there were goals there wasn’t a lot of quality, the interest for me was seeing the two Hull players we mentioned last week, Fraser Campbell and Jarrod Bowen. The former was his usual lively self and he won a first-half penalty for Hull which the latter took. Not a lot wrong with the penalty but Agent Mulder in the Swans goal pulled off a nice save down by his left-hand post. Bowen scored two goals, the first when he got himself in a nice position to convert a Campbell cross, the second was a goal that we have seen Craig Noone score, cutting in from the right and curling his shot into the far corner. In fact, Bowen played much the same role that Noone did for us. Probably a bit too predictable to work for long in the Premier League.
Are we really going to spend around 20 million on an unproven (in English football) striker? Doesn’t seem likely to me.
Keep up the good work, Paul.
It seems the gods that contrived to cause my wife’s car not to start yesterday morning and ultimately prevent me from travelling to Cardiff for the match were on my side after all. In the end my daughter took up EE’s offer of a free trial with BT sport so I could watch the match (mismatch) on TV. I have to say that I can’t recall ever watching a more uneven Premier League contest. As you say Paul it wasn’t just that we were bad or they were good – it was both.
The list of areas where we need strengthening seems to be getting longer. A right -back, a midfielder and a striker have long been touted as necessary but I think it’s time we began to get real about our central defenders. Morrison and Bamba were heroes last season and fully deserved their chance at this level but I think we should now acknowledge that neither has made the step up we hoped for and that an experienced premier league central defender or two should be high on our shopping list for January.
Zohore’s performance was encouraging – largely I felt because he was playing in a slightly deeper wide left role where he could run at defenders rather than as an isolated up front figure. I have long thought that getting him playing as he can would be a vital key to any hopes of survival.
By the time I next get to Cardiff for the Huddersfield game on Jan 12th I’ve a feeling we will still be on 14 points and well immersed in the bottom 3. Hopefully some useful reinforcements will have arrived by then.
In mathematical terms Cardiff were at the kindergarten standard stage of learning tables — which, of course, are unchangeable and therefore predictable. MUFC on the other hand were graduate standard at geometry, masters of the triangle. I admit that from Cardiff’s point of view it was a horror show, a lesson in what qualities of pace, skill, and — above all — touch which we were lacking.
But, the point of a lesson is to learn and improve, to the limit of your ability, even if that ability is very limited. I hope for better things to come though I might well be in cloud cuckoo land.
Yesterday’s match was also a learning cove for the fans — the long-term tactic of putting square pegs into round holes has been well and truly found out. I won’t name names, but any observant supporter will know whom I mean.
If, by the end of the season we need to win our final game to stay up, the bad news is that the game will be against an already resurgent Manchester United. Let’s live in hope that we’ll be safe by then.
One last comment: I understand that Solskjaer was booed as he got of the team bus. All I can say to the perpetrators is — Shame on you.
Have a good Christmas everyone.
Tactics were of a novice standard yesterday.
defenders were sunday league standard. Along with Etheridge who combined were to blame for the first goal, That wall was shocking in the respect that it did not cover the post. What are they working on in training. too often this season we have seen individual errors lead to goals or lack of concentration which leads to a goal.
None of us are under any illusions that the players are of a top 6 standard but they should not be losing at home to Burnley due to lapses.
We need a right back and personally i feel Manga would be a better bet in the centre than Bamba. Bamba makes too many errors, 2 penalties conceded by him so far and robbed of ball yesterday which led to goal 5. Lets hope that goal does not make a difference come the end.
Sort the defence out and perhaps the midfield will have more confidence and play will improve. Our wingers are shattered due to all the covering they are doing.
my 11 for next week, 3 games would be
Etheridge
Hoillett ………Morrison…….. Manga……..Bennett
Mendez………..Ralls……….. Arter……..Murphy
Camasara
Zahore
Bench
Smithies……Bamba……..Cunningham…..Harris…….Patterson…….Reid…….Gunnerson
if the team is not performing there are changes to made from the bench. Some exciting ones too. Ie Reid.
Its not over yet and who knows what the january santa will bring.
Back to yesterday. i did not find it as depressing as i though as I was expecting it. AS soon as they sacked JM I could see what was on the cards. When they employed OGS it just made it a double whammy.
Vincent Tan was at yesterday’s game and I would love to hear the post match conversation between him and Warnock.
On the one hand Warnock could justifiably be saying –‘I told you I needed much more money to invest in the team’.
On the other hand Tan could equally justifiably say ‘ All our players are well paid professionals why are they so inept at basic skills like receiving and passing the ball?’
The conversation would be based around spending plans for the January transfer window and Tan will obviously be wondering whether it would be worth risking a further £20 million or so to guarantee a further year in the Premier League or whether he would be throwing good money after bad.
If it was my money I would be insisting that a new or additional skills coach should join the first team staff —- Bellamy?
He has already dropped hints in TV interviews that our players should be more comfortable on the ball and we know from our blogmeister’s reports that this is a priority in his coaching of our under 18’s
Thanks Paul and others.
Struggling to add anything to the excellent analysis and subsequent responses which all confirm my thoughts. Embarrassingly short of quality and now 3 poor back to back performances where we have been totally outplayed and our keeper has avoided even worse score lines.
Lacking in many areas but, like Paul, I was fearful of the Man U response to having the shackles taken off with new manager impact. Also agree that we don’t seem to cope well when we are the supporting cast to the main National media story of any weekend!
Everything now seems to be hinging on good loan deals ASAP and, clutching at straws, Zohore rediscovering some much neede quality.
Other than that it’s a case of rejoicing in ongoing struggles of Fulham, Huddersfield and Burnley. Saints and Palace looking like the are finding some form to pull away from trouble.
On a happier note, a Merry Christmas to Paul and other contributors.
Paul – Good evening to you and fellow contributors. Once again a deliberately late response from me as I wished to see how Spurs would perform against Everton as they are our next opponents at the CCS. All I can state is ‘Pity Help Us!!!
As many have commented upon, our skill levels yesterday were so far behind those of United. We were slower in thought, deed and pace and very, very few will look upon their performances as being satisfactory.
To concede the first goal so early in the manner we did showed to me a complete lack on our Management’s part in having the awareness that in situations where a free kick such as that awarded with Pogba and Rashford over the ball that it would be the latter that would take the kick. Our wall disintegrated when Pogba ran over the wall. Do we not do any research on opponents?
From then on, we were chasing the game, but were we? Possession stats reveal us having under 30% of the ball and at no time did I feel that our performance would see us level the match. It really was no contest.
As Anthony has pointed out, our deficiencies in certain areas of the pitch was truly evident, but also others on whom we have depended upon are also being found out. It makes for a potentially disappointing few games before the transfer window opens. And I do not see Mr.Tan wanting to spend the amount of money to fix all of our current problems.
In NW’s programme notes, he writes “There will be people in 200 countries watching today’s game, so raise the roof and let’s show everyone what we’re all about”. Sadly, we did that alright.
Unseasonly grim stuff, but inevitable I guess, given our performance as reported.
I’ve never understood why Tan, a highly focused man in general, seems to be so apparently half-hearted once we reach the ‘promised land’.
Mind you, judging from the contributions above outlining the absence of touch, technique, and pace, it’s going to require a lot more than mere dosh to cure our ills.
However, a major injection of such may just help to keep us there, while longer-term matters are worked on.
A Happy Christmas to one and all…here’s to a few glasses of bubbles to counter the gloom.
Morning everyone, a good and varied set of replies which I’d say take a generally realistic view of where we stand at the moment. Colin, I’ve now seen Bowen’s second goal and it was a beauty, but I take your point about it possibly not being the sort of goal you could score consistently in the Premier League. That said, Bowen is someone I would like to se eus go after because I do think he has something, whereas, at thirty one, I believe Fraizer Campbell’s time as a Premier League player has come and gone – all the signs are that he isn’t the player he was five years ago when he was part of a squad which finished bottom of the Premier League and never really proved conclusively that he was up to playing at that level.
Richard, I find it hard to argue too much with you concerning our centrebacks. Morrison is always going to struggle at this level if he is backed up facing most of the strikers in the division running at him and I suppose the trick is to have the mifdield sorted out in front of him to try and prevent that happening – once it does, then you have to wonder about his place in the team, especially given his lack of goals this season. As for Bamba, he gets the crowd going with his last ditch tackles and interceptions and there is something to be admired in them, but he doesn’t half take some liberties and I get the feeling that with Premier League sides are getting more familiar with how he plays, we may see more of the sort of thing which led to the fifth goal. As for Zohore, that was the first time I’ve seen him go past an opponent with that run down the inside left channel in ages, I agree with you that this is the area where he is most effective in.
Anthony, granted I’ve not paid too much attnetion to what has been said and reported after the match, but it seems to me that Ole’s return was something of a non event from a City perspective with the attitude of many fans fans mirroring mine – I wasn’t too worked up about it one way or the other – I suppose when you consider that there were something like twenty five to thirty thousand City fans present, you were always going to get the few who would react in anegative way to our former manager returning, but the large majority didn’t seem to bear him any malice.
Nice to hear from you pt. The right back and striker situations are embarrassing frankly and our manager has been lucky that Paterson (a right back who Warnock considers to be not good enough for that position, despite the fact that Scotland manager and multi capped defender Alex McLeih plays him there in important games) has done a decent job as a stopgap centre forward – as a Premioer League side, we should never have got into a state where we do not have at least one specialist capable of doing a decent job at this level for every position on the pitch. Bruno was dreadful on Saturday. but I’m not going to be too critical of him because the qualities which might make him a Premier League standard centreback are not much use when he’s beign used in a position he is just not suited to (especially the way a modern day full back is expected to perform).
Mike, I agree with everything you say and it should not be forgotten that our manager has spent £35 million in transfer fees (assuming the reported figures are correct) in 2018 and I would say that only Josh Murphy out of the players we’ve had a fee for could be considered to be a likely starter in Neil Warnock’s prefered starting eleven (he may well not get in if it was an away game either) – our two bear signings have been loan players and maybe this is why our manager appears to be favouring that method of brigning in newcomers next month.
Huw, we do need to remember that we are clear of the bottom three at Christmas and there are sides who would love to have our knack of being able to beat sides around us in the table at home more often than not, but it’s worth recalling that we were never in the bottom three (apart from on the first day of the season) until the turn of the Year in 13/14 and we ended up going down with barely a whimper – I keep on returning to the fact that from the Leicester match next weekend onwards, all of our oppoennts will know exactly what to expect from us and I can’t help thinking that we need to look at ways of becoming less one dimensional.
BJA, as you say, Everton (a much better side than us) were completely taken apart by Spurs yesterday. If you were asked what were the four outstanding performances of the weekend just gone in the Premier League, I think there is a good chance you’d pick Palace at Man City, Leicester at Chelsea, Spurs at Everton and Man United at Cardiff – i.e. the four teams were playing over the holiday period! I’ve mentioned before that we’ve been unlucky quite often in how the fixtures have fallen for us. but, as you say, Saturday was far from being solely about our opponents being very good on the day – our last two performances have been very concerning, as I mentioned in my piece, I believe the aggregate score of 3-8 against Watford and Manchester United certainly flattered us.
I’ve just re-read my comments on Saturday’s goings on – it is no wonder that our wall disintegrated when Pogba “ran over them”. For “wall”, please read “ball”
Merry Christmas.
A bit late with this comment – Christmas preparations for a very large family!!
Another brilliantly comprehensive report and follow up Paul; for which, many thanks once again. I was able to watch live on to tv and, I’m afraid, our limitations were indeed brutally exposed by an extremely sharp set of knives. Also many thanks to all contributors for some very pertinent comments: our ability to receive and pass the ball when under pressure is just not good enough at this level; Manga is not suited to play at right back; and we do need someone to score some goals. On the positive side I thought Kenneth Zahore ran some good lines and is, understandably, a much better all-round striker than Pattison – pity he can’t jump! Best wishes to all for a healthy and happy new year and, to City, for a barrow-load of luck in the transfer market.
Hi all,
To lose against any of the PL top-six is no great surprise or shame. To be so overwhelmingly outplayed was no great calamity and to have lost 1-5 was as not a bolt out of the blue. In truth Man U won at a canter, barely breaking sweat. Of more concern to me was the gulf in ability, pace, movement and ruthlessness in front of goals exhibited by Watford and WHU, two middle of the table teams we played recently. They both, could have scored 6 or 7 against us. Player for player they were light years ahead of us. And these, two sides, if we were to get to our 40 pts safety mark, we would be needing to get a point at away from home and beating at the CCS.
Off the pitch there seems to be the delusional and the suicidal amongst City fans. Thankfully this blog does not fall into that category but offers a well balanced view of City 2018-2019. When I’ve sought to bring an impartial, honest view of this City under Tan/Warnock in discussion with fans I’ve been criticised. To speak the truth to a people who do not want to hear it is viewed as an act of aggression. So be it. Despite having a strong emotional link to City going back almost 60 years I will not be blinkered. I’ll duck now.
At the start of this PL season I said we needed to beat the bottom ten clubs at home and get a point off them away for the goal of safety. A few games into the season we failed that test at Huddersfield and at home to Newcastle & Burnley losing 7 points off our target. Moreover our first 20 minutes at home to Arsenal warranted more than the defeat we got.
As said before: lack of investment tends to poverty. As you sow you reap. For the second time in a couple of seasons we haven’t grasped the PL opportunity. Which ever way we dress it up we have not spent to give fans any hope that CCFC seriously wants to stay in this league more than one season. Sad. Furthermore, if we are to believe reports in the media it seems Dalman wants to spend and Tan not to. Ah well. Consequently many times this season our xi has included 3 cbs and 4 cms, a cb at rb, a cm on the wing and a utility player as striker (our fifth tried in that role behind Reid, Zohore, Ward and Madine). As we all know we faced an uphill struggle before a ball was kicked in August.
What of Saturday and the Man U game. The scoreline was emphatic but on watching the highlights it seemed the visitor’s first two goals were aided by deflections whilst Mr Oliver’s decision to give OGS’s team a penalty was generous. Camarasa, I felt, was our best performer. He alone of our outfield players, does not look out of place at the top of the highest level.
Etheridge has shown he has acclimatised into being a genuine PL keeper; Manga, if played in his preferred position, would do a job in the PL; Murphy has the ability to become one when mentally switched on whilst Bennett is a solid performer at this level. Ralls, Patterson, Morrison and Bamba have had goodish seasons. Sadly too many of our team are Championship plus / PL minus players.
Our fans, from the beginning of the season, have been excellent putting to shame the likes of Chelsea, Spurs, Everton, Man City and many more deserving the rb, dcm and striker we crave to give us a chance in the latter half of the season. It would be so disappointing for the second time this decade to give up the PL status with barely a whimper. We can but hope as this fan has for 60 years where City is concerned.
To one and all may I wish you a blessed and peaceful Christmas and prosperous 2019.
Mike, I can’t help thinking you are spot on with “our ability to receive and pass the ball when under pressure is just not good enough at this level”.
Steve, I’m not as critical of our relative lack of investment in our playing staff as you, because of that £60 odd million pounds of debt to equity conversion by Vincent Tan. That said, I agree that survival is, almost certainly, going to be beyond us unless more ambition is shown in terms of the sort of player we try to attract next month compared to what we saw in the summer. One thing which also bears remembering is that I wouldn’t call one of the six players we signed for combined fees of £35 million in 2018 can be termed a total success and there is also the Lee Tomlion precedent to be remembered as well – even if Neil Warnock is given substantial funding for next month, there is no guarantee it will be spent well.