Weekly review 7/6/15.

CoymayThere’s no weekly quiz on here during the summer months, but I’m going to begin with an excellent question set by Richard Holt the co author of the Journey Back, the book you can read about in the Cardiff City Books section on here;-

What happened in 39 of City’s 46 league games during 2014/2015 but only occurred in 6 league games during the whole of the 20th Century ?

I’ll give the answer at the end of this piece, so bear that in mind if you want to give yourself a while to try and come up with it.

As far as the week just ended goes, I suppose the main piece of City related news to emerge from it was confirmation that Aron Gunnarsson (whose deal was due to run out around this time next year I believe) had extended his contract by a further two years. I gave my reaction to this in a messageboard thread discussing this news when it first broke three or four days ago and I’ve not changed my mind since then.

Essentially, I thought it was good news, but noted that, in the view of many Coventry fans, the Icelandic captains time at that club consisted of him making a very impressive impact initially, but then his level of performance gradually tailing off until it got to a stage where there seemed to be no great sadness at his departure to us four years ago – Gunnarsson began his time at Cardiff with a couple of very good seasons, struggled in the Premier League in his third (no great shame in that, there were plenty of others who did as well) and has just come off his worst campaign for the club, so the challenge for him is to arrest a decline that is in danger of turning his Cardiff career into a repeat of his Coventry one.

I believe he is good enough to rise to that challenge, but there were plenty who were not as charitable about the man who is now one of our longest serving senior players (off the top of my head, I can only think of Peter Whittingham and David Marshall who have been here longer than him) – sell him now or just give him a one year deal were opinions that appeared in that thread I mentioned and I have to admit that, even if I don’t support such views, I can understand them to a large extent.

The Whittingham/Gunnarsson central midfield partnership were first choices in the Championship winning team for more than three quarters of that season before the former lost his place for the closing games, so they had a history of proven performance at this level, but if you were to ask most City fans (myself included) what single on field factor contributed to our season turning out like it did, I believe the most common answer would be an under performing central midfield.

Gunnarsson needs to start hitting the heights of his first two seasons with us if we are to fare better than we did in 14/15 – I thought he improved a little in the closing games of the campaign when we were winning more than we were losing and my suspicion is that if the “part of the furniture” central midfield pairing is going to be broken up, it may be Whitts who should be more fearful for his place in the side.

There was also an announcement that we will be playing new Premier League club Bournemouth in what will, almost certainly, be our final pre season match on 31 July and Cheltenham Town have said that they will be entertaining us three earlier (I don’t believe there has been any confirmation of this game from City yet mind).

If that Cheltenham match goes ahead, then it will be following the convention that applies in pre season matches about 95% of the time, whereby the side which plays at the lower level is at home. What struck me straight away with the Bournemouth match was that we, as the “junior” side, were going to be travelling to the south coast, so, it certainly is beginning to look as if City will not have a home match before the league season starts on August 8. For the last decade or more, our final warm up match has been at home against continental opponents and, given the cost cutting seen over the last few months at the club, the thought occurs to me that the decision has been taken that City do not want to risk losing money by paying for a fixture which may well be given a miss by many of the apparently meagre number to have bought season tickets so far given the levels of apathy among the club’s support at the moment.

On the other hand, perhaps I’m adding two and two and getting five because the indications are that Russell Slade could well have a bigger than expected transfer budget to work with in the coming weeks. Before going on to that, I should just mention quickly that there appears to be interest in Adam LeFondre from a few Championship clubs – Bolton manager Neil Lennon has said he would like to have the player back for next season, but the suspicion remains that they do not have the funds to buy him, so Charlton or MK Dons would appear to be a more likely destination for the striker with the latter being the more strongly linked of the two.

Barnsley's Conor Hourihane celebrates a goal one of two draws his team managed against League One Champions Bristol City.

Barnsley’s Conor Hourihane celebrates a goal in one of two draws his team managed against League One Champions Bristol City last season.

On the incoming front, Conor Hourihane of Barnsley is a name that  has cropped up a bit in recent days. The Irish midfielder was signed from Plymouth last season and was a virtual ever present for the Yorkshire side during a season which saw him make a tremendous goalscoring impact early on. That side of his game tailed off during the second half of the season, but, even so, thirteen league goals is an impressive tally that was enough to make him the Tykes top scorer and, on the face of it, the 24 year old looks the type of player who would be attracting interest from the Championship this summer.

Going back to the amount our manager has to spend this summer, the reason why I feel it could be more than many suspected it would be is that, apparently, our interest in Daryl Murphy, the man who scored more goals than any one else in this division last season, is a genuine one. I made my feelings clear on this possible signing last week and the news from the Ipswich end that they, seemingly, value the 32 year old at £4 million only makes me repeat that, surely, this should mean that this is a deal not worth pursuing from our point of view?

On the other hand, this is Cardiff City we are talking about and they are a club where the large majority of transfer deals in recent years have been all about short termism. The only signing Russell Slade has made so far that I can think of who would fall into the “one for the future” category is Matt Kennedy and when you also consider the complete absence of young home grown players from the first team squad for those, largely meaningless matches we played through April and much of March, I find it hard to avoid a feeling that while our manager may trot out the term “youth development” from time to time to keep people on board, in reality, it is low on his list of priorities.

This brings me back to Richard’s question. The answer relates to the number of Welsh born players selected in the team. Last season the only Welshmen to feature in the first team in the league were Declan John, with two starts and four substitute appearances, and Danny Gabbidon with just the one appearance off the bench – there was no Welsh representation in thirty nine of our games and this is more than six times the total number of occasions in which this happened throughout the whole of the last century!

Yes, the game has changed and I think it’s fair to say that it is harder for young players to break into first teams than it used to be, but, for a side that is. allegedly, looking to balance the books these days, I find it baffling that there is an almost total reliance on looking elsewhere for new players when they are needed – it all comes back to the lack of a “plan” which I find so frustrating, it still only seems to be about the here and now at the club.

 

 

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Weekly review 31/5/15.

CoymayThere’s seldom a summer goes by without plenty of online messages from supporters of football clubs bemoaning their team’s lack of activity in the transfer market during the close season. Well, I saw my first Cardiff City one of 2015 on a City messageboard this week. It matters not that the 2014/15 domestic season only formally ended yesterday with Arsenal beating 4-0 in an FA Cup Final that was even more one sided than the score suggests or that I’m fairly sure that the summer transfer window hasn’t formally opened yet, this person was getting in a right panic about how some of our rivals have already done some good business, while we sit about doing nothing.

Now, there have been some years when we have been pretty busy in the weeks immediately following the end of a season and I think it’s fair to say that the results of this early business have been mixed. For example, I can remember us bringing in Kevin McNaughton, Steve McPhail and Michael Chopra early on during the summer of 2006 and they all turned out to be superb signings who played leading roles in a very strong start to the season that year. Likewise, I can remember us signing David Marshall in 2009 within days of his Norwich side being relegated to the third tier and I think there’d be general agreement now that the £500,000 we paid for him was money very well spent.

On the other hand, I can remember this time last year there were plenty saying how good it was that we had acted so quickly to bring in new players – I can remember because I was one of those saying it! The bookies agreed as they installed us as favourites to win the league (I see we are, predictably, in the middle range of the betting in the, completely pointless, list of odds brought out for the 2015/16 Championship recently). We spent all last summer as the team most likely to be preparing for the Premier League currently – and then we started playing and reality dawned!

At this time in 2014, it was believed that the recently arrived Messrs Guerra, LeFondre and Macheda would help give us a formidable strikeforce that would have Championship defences quaking in their boots. Even if Fraizer Campbell was likely to leave, we still had Nicky Maynard and Kenwyne Jones as well as someone like Joe Mason contemplating another season which would see him loaned out somewhere because he had no chance of breaking into the City side with the galaxy of striking riches we had to choose from – well, we all know now how that worked out.

While I can understand why managers say that they prefer to sign new players early enough for them to have a full pre season with their new club and, failing that, early enough to have them ready for the start of the season rather than when the transfer window closes after three or four league games have been played, surely the truth is that, no matter when they arrive, new signings can simply be broken down into good ones and bad ones? It doesn’t matter one bit when they come as long as we eventually end up with newcomers who can turn us into a better side than we were last season.

No, the only real reason I would have liked to have seen us sign someone by now is because it may have cast some light on something which I believe has become less clear over the past week – just what sort of budget does Russell Slade have to work with this summer?

Given our transfer dealings in January and the way we were loaning out first team players in March, my first assumption was that we would, to borrow a bit from our manager, be shopping in Poundland rather Harrods, but I have been told the names of three players we are chasing this summer by someone who has been a very reliable source in the past and, if he is right this time, then we are, maybe, giving Harrods a miss, but we are still shopping in John Lewis’.

However, if there is any substance to some of the names we were linked with last week, then maybe Mr Tan is still permitting the occasional visit to Knightsbridge!

Daryl Murphy was the Championship’s top scorer in the season just ended – he found the net twenty seven times in league fixtures and every time I watched Ipswich last year he showed there was more to him than just being a penalty box predator. I’ve always liked Murphy, as hinted at earlier, he always puts in a real shift for the team, is decent in the air, yet mobile enough to be used as a wide player and he has a little bit of quality about him that has always made me think he should have played more top flight football than he has done.

However, his goalscoring record last season was something of a one off – his thirteen goals in all competitions in 13/14 was, by some distance, his next highest scoring season. Now, if he was a twenty two year old making a reputation for himself with that sort of increased goalscoring record, then it would be one thing, but Daryl Murphy is ten years older than that and, although I’d say he would, almost certainly, be an improvement on what we’ve got, it seems to me that spending even half of the £4 million valuation Ipswich have, apparently, put on him would be too much for someone of his age.

Peter Whittingham watches on as Darl Murphy scores a great goal from twenty five yards to put Ipswich ahead at the Cardiff City Stadium in October.

Peter Whittingham watches on as Darl Murphy scores a great goal from twenty five yards to put Ipswich ahead at Cardiff City Stadium in October.

By contrast, Crystal Palace striker Dwight Gayle is only 24 and, unlike Murphy, has a good Premier League goalscoring record. It would appear that Gayle is available at the right price, but that price would surely be one that cast serious doubts about how intent the club are on ending the days of £10 million plus annual losses. Reportedly, the deal which saw Gayle sign for Palace could have ended up costing the London club £8 million and, given that he has been far from a flop in the top flight, I would have thought they would want to get virtually all of that back if they sold him.

It would surprise me if there were no Premier League clubs prepared to sign Gayle, but, if he was to end up with us, surely he would be paid for by the departure of three or four of our most saleable assets and so you’d have to wonder about what sort of Cardiff squad he would be joining for the new season.

To be honest, I hope we don’t sign either of these players. That’s not to say that I wouldn’t be excited by their arrival, but it would feel a bit like us keeping on digging when we were already in a massive hole.

More likely for me than either the Murphy or Gayle rumours is the one linking us with a £500,000 move for Swindon left back/winger Nathan Byrne who was voted into the League One team of the year by his fellow professionals in April. In saying that, I see speculation this morning that West Brom are going to bid £2 million for Byrne, so, maybe, this is another one that should be filed under “unlikely” – I suppose my point is more that a £500,000 move for any highly rated young League One player has a ring of truth about it that Dwight Gayle to Cardiff does not in my book.

Finally on the transfer rumours front, it’s been reported that Cardiff could be a destination for a couple of young centrebacks that Everton are looking to loan out to Championship clubs. Tyias Browning and Brendan Galloway will it seems by playing in our league next season. Browning, who made his first team debut for Everton when he came on as sub in the Merseyside derby match back in September, has  already done so with a couple of appearances for Wigan in a loan spell with them in January 2014, while Galloway, who arrived from MK Dons last summer, started against West Ham and Spurs in the Toffee’s last two matches of the season. On the face of it though, with centreback being the area where we are strongest, it’s hard to see how either of them would get many first team opportunities for us unless we see a few established names leave in the coming weeks.

If you read last week’s piece, you will have seen me discounting Norwich’s chances in the Play Off Final simply because I wanted them to win. However, they overcame this huge disadvantage quite easily as it turned out scoring twice early on to secure a comfortable 2-0 win over Middlesbrough with ex City striker, and my man of the match, Cameron Jerome getting the first one. So, Boro will be one of a few Championship teams looking to do a spot of rebuilding after the loss of some very influential loan players back to their parent clubs – it’s another reason why the Championship is such a fascinating league, the widespread use of loan players by some teams means that there can be a loss of continuity with success one season often not being guaranteed to follow in the next one.

 

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