
Sometime last week, in an online conversation somewhere, I ventured the opinion that Cardiff City were a better side than Brighton and Hove Albion for more than a half of last season’s Premier League campaign. I don’t think there can be much doubt that City were stronger than Huddersfield Town and Fulham, who were relegated along with us, but was there another team that we could, realistically, have bettered to secure a third season in the top flight?
As mentioned above, Brighton were the only genuine contender in my book. Yes, I thought Burnley looked a very poor side when they, somehow, ended up beating us at home back in September and Southampton under Mark Hughes’ management bore many of the hallmarks of a relegation outfit, but the former rediscovered their trademark resilience in the second half of the season and the latter were soon showing improvement under Ralph Hasenhüttl’s management after he had lost his first game in charge in Cardiff.
When Brighton came to Cardiff in early November, they had fourteen points from ten games and a continuance of that sort of form over the course of a full season would have seen them end up with a total of around fifty points with the possibility of a top half finish.
That goes to the heart of why it is us, rather than the Seagulls, who’ll be playing in the Championship in the coming season. While they were piling up the points in the first three months or so of the season, we amassed a mere five, taking all of nine weeks to record our first win.
City left themselves with too much to do from the end of October onwards to overhaul the team that we beat so comfortably at the Amex Stadium in April, but I would argue that the fact that we amassed seven more points than Brighton over the last six months of the season confirms my contention in the first paragraph – we were better than them for the majority of the season.
That’s not an end to it though because, as explained by SBD , our actual point total from last year (34) was 3.5 points lower than their Expected Points, which is based on how many chances they generated relative to their opponents. So, even with the very large hurdle we created for ourselves from August to October, it seems we would have cleared it by amassing more points than the team that finished just above us if we had been more clinical in front of goal and scored as frequently as our build up play merited.
Unfortunately, the goal-challenged squad will be without co-leading scorer VÃctor Camarasa, who’s headed back to Real Bettis, and, as yet, Cardiff haven’t brought in any new scoring threats via the transfer market. Therefore, Cardiff are by no means a certainty to earn promotion next season, but the Bluebirds have the fourth-best odds at +350 (7/2) and, as outlined above, were, in reality, a little unlucky to be relegated in the first place.
It can be argued that the lower standard of defending in the Championship may be sufficient for Cardiff to find it easy enough to come up with the goals they couldn’t find in 2018/19, but the likes of Bobby Decordova-Reid and Josh Murphy will need to up their goalscoring rate significantly and the money from the imminent departure of Kenneth Zohore (West Brom have had a bid accepted for him today) spent well if Cardiff are to earn a return to the Premier League.


