A few months ago someone posted a link to an excellent Welsh football podcast called Elis James’ Feast of Football on the City messageboard I use. I’ll always be grateful to that person because it’s a great listen and I heartily recommend it to readers of this blog if they have the time to listen to the different broadcasts over the course of the season.
Comedian Elis James is a Swansea City fan, but don’t hold that against him, because he comes over as funny, likeable and as someone who also knows his stuff when it comes to many aspects of football.
However, for me anyway, his two sidekicks Danny Gabbidon and Iwan Roberts, who are guests on each podcast, add so much to the show. Both of them are very good in their different ways and they share a habit of letting you in on behind dressing door secrets more than you’re used to hearing from most ex pros now working in the media.
Roberts is the more conventional and serious minded of the two, but is also impressive in the breadth of his knowledge (he is kidded sometimes by the other two for being a bit of a swot in terms of the amount of research he does before each programme). However, it is Danny Gabbidon (I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this before, but he’s the best defender I’ve seen play for City!) who, contrary to the perception I had of him based on interviews he did when he was a player, is the person who gives the most forthright opinions and is most willing to offer insights into the personalities of some of the biggest names in the game.
It’s the honest nature of what Gabbidon has to say that I am going to concentrate on here. If you listen to the podcasts from the second half of the season in particular, you won’t have to wait that long before you’ll hear him rubbishing this season’s Premier League.
According to Danny, the Premier League campaign just ended was of a particularly low standard with some very ordinary teams down near the bottom of the table. It’s a criticism that I’ve heard quite frequently this season and, based on what I’ve seen of it (I’ve not watched as much of this season’s competition as I have done in the past), it’s one I agree with.
There are common themes to the criticisms I’ve heard – while there is an acknowledgment that Manchester City are one of the better teams to have won the competition since it became the plaything of Sky TV and Rupert Murdoch just over a quarter of a century ago and other top sides have made some progress forward (as evidenced by Liverpool’s run to the Champions League Final), dig beneath that top layer of quality and it doesn’t take long before the gold and silver is replaced by base metal.
Although Arsenal need to start producing something soon if they are to continue their membership of the select few that give the Premier League it’s real star quality, there are six clubs which are figured to be ahead of the rest and below them it’s all much of a muchness.
The new ownership at Everton meant that they were being touted this time last year as a side which could prompt a situation whereby the usual suspects might face new competition for their Champions League places, but, based on what I saw during the first half of the campaign in particular, the merseysider’s finishing position of eighth greatly flattered them. If a side as poor as Everton are able to finish eighth in a league of twenty teams, then it really does give you a big clue as to it’s strength in depth.
From what I’ve heard of Elis James in the various podcasts I’ve listened to, he is under no illusions as to how poor his team has been for the last three seasons and Swansea’s continued presence in the top flight in 2017/18 told you as much about the level of ability shown by those at the bottom end of the Premier League as it did to the jacks’ talent for survival.
I’ve mentioned before on here that the definitive text book on how not to survive in the Premier League could have been written with our 2013/14 season in mind, but if there had been a sister publication called “How to survive in the Premier League when you’re a small to middling club”, then it could have been based upon the jacks’ first two seasons in the division following their promotion in 2011.
When the jacks came to Cardiff in November 2013 for the first Welsh Premier League derby, it was billed as a bottom of the table clash. Swansea were in a proper relegation fight for the first time in their Premier League existence and, despite him having won a first major trophy for the club a little over six months earlier, there were plenty of calls for manager Michael Laudrup’s head at the time.
These only increased after their defeat at Cardiff City Stadium and by the time of the return fixture in February, Laudrup had gone – Garry Monk took charge of the jacks for the first time in the game at the Liberty where City’s limp 3-0 defeat only added to the growing feeling that Ole Solskjaer was not the man to extend our stay in the top flight into a second season.
While we subsided to our inevitable relegation, Swansea comfortably avoided the drop and, albeit with a more pragmatic style than the Premier League had been used to, they prospered for a season under Monk. However, having earned a reputation for finding transfer gems that did not seem to be on the bigger club’s shortlists, Swansea, for whatever reason, promptly lost the knack and their transfer dealings in recent years have been a long way short of the quality of three years and more ago.
When you add foreign ownership, which seems to me to have hindered rather than helped, and Swansea’s template for survival, which had involved the selling of one top player a year to be replaced by shrewd bargain basement (by Premier League standards anyway), simply stopping working, then their subsequent struggles are not too surprising.
Suddenly, where the feeling of continuity that had existed had only been broken when bigger clubs came in for their managers, it was now a case of the jacks going through two or three bosses a season under ownership which seemed unwilling or unable to act on, or even acknowledge, that the club had changed fundamentally from those days when they were envied by so many.
Indeed, when the end came for Swansea as a Premier League club last weekend, it had the feeling of a pet being put out of it’s misery.
The club that had been proclaimed as many people’s “second Premier League team” with an attractive and effective passing game which earned them much admiration, went down playing defensive stuff with what looked suspiciously like a long ball approach – they had become a characterless blight on “the best league in the world” and I get the impression that few outside of their immediate support were too upset to see them relegated.
My point in going on about the jacks at some length is that if a side as poor, and as badly run, as they have been over the past three seasons can survive in the Premier League as long as they did, then that suggests to me that standards at the lower end of the league have dropped, perhaps only slightly, since we were last there.
It used to be said that the Premier League was, in fact, three leagues in one with an elite grouping of six or less which could entertain fairly realistic hopes of winning the title, with the consolation for failure on that score being that they would at least be in the fight for a Champions League place. Then there would be a group of about eight who could dream of a Europa League place and, possibly, a domestic cup win. These sides might end up being involved in a relegation fight, but were generally regarded as having enough about them to win it – finally, you would have another group of six for whom just avoiding the drop would be deemed success.
I’d say that, broadly speaking, that was the Premier League we were in during 13/14, but it was completely different in 17/18. The elite group were still there, but if there was a middle group, I would say it consisted of Burnley, possibly Arsenal above them and maybe Everton and Leicester below them.
However, both of those last two sides spent quite a lot of the season beset by relegation worries and I think it could be convincingly argued that for two thirds to three quarters of the season, the bottom group, as defined by the old standard, contained as many as thirteen teams.
Now, of course, we’ve had a Leicester come along and win the thing a couple of years ago, but, more and more, that just looks like a statistical freak to me because the big boys’ hold on the league seems as strong now as it’s ever been. Also, just because it was a weak league this season, it doesn’t automatically mean that it will be in 18/19, but while some of those teams which survived in the bottom thirteen may make significant improvements with some good transfer wheeling and dealing and/or the right managerial appointment, it’s asking too much surely for many of them to do so.
Therefore, I would argue that, for a large part of the season anyway, more than half of our fixtures are going to be against sides that would be seen as a relegation rival of ours.
Now, I can’t remember where it was that I made this comparison recently, but I’m going to use it again. We started the season with a run of four fixtures with Burton, Aston Villa, Sheffield United and Wolves and then we had a sequence of matches against the same teams in late March/early April.
Comparing the outcomes of these games sends out a clear signal that the Cardiff City of August was a stronger side than the one of this spring. If the August 2017 version of Cardiff City were to face one of those bottom thirteen teams at home with the sort of team spirit and belief we showed throughout the season, I’d back us to win quite a few of those games.
However, the spring version of the team had got into the habit of losing or not performing against the better teams in the Championship and although that spirit and belief seemed as strong as ever, I’d fear another relegation if we couldn’t raise our game to higher levels than that seen against, say, Sheffield United, Villa and Derby recently.
The dilemma for Neil Warnock and the management team is if there is a feeling that we need new players to improve the team (and it seems there is), does that carry the same sort of potential problems as we saw in 12/13 when a side quite like the current one in many respects, was taken apart to include a series of expensive signings on wages that impacted on how we operated for years afterwards?
The alternative is to put more trust in the promotion squad than was shown last time around. Based on what we saw over much of the second half of the season, I doubt if this is going to happen – despite the earlier evidence that the current squad have it in them to play good quality stuff when they are on their game.
As mentioned above, the early evidence is that we will be pretty active in the transfer market in the coming months (don’t forget that the transfer window closes about three weeks earlier in the coming season) – there have been quite widespread stories about five or six new signings and I’ve even seen in one report that the number will be eight (it was broken down into a goalkeeper, two defenders, three midfielders and two forwards).
What needs to be remembered is that, for all of the talk about not wanting to see a repeat of the 12/13 spending levels, a significant difference between then and now is the valuation of players – at least when Premier League clubs with the money from the latest TV deal come calling.
The one transfer which came to encapsulate the overspending and ineptitude of our summer 2012 dealings was the one which brought Andreas Cornelius to the club – this was the signing which Vincent Tan was able to dine out on when he wanted to reaffirm his feud with Malky Mackay.
However one of a plethora of players we have already been linked with is Andre Gray of Watford. Now, I think he could be a very good signing for us, but the fact of the matter is that, having been a quality Championship striker with Brentford and Burnley, he got a reported £18 million pound move to his current club on the back of one fine season in the top division Turf Moor .
Things have not gone so well for Gray at Watford and, if we signed him, there would be a chance that it may be for a bit less than Burnley got, but it’s likely that, especially when you consider the player’s wages, he would cost us double what Cornelius would have done if he had seen out his Cardiff contract.
Similarly, if we were looking at two players with the career prospects that Gary Medel and Steven Caulker had when they signed for us, I suspect we would be looking at something like £35 million in transfer fees alone for such a pair of players.
The reality is that the Premier League millions and an eye watering transfer budget, by our standards at least, are not worth anywhere near as much as it may first appear. City will have to be cute with their transfer dealings this summer and, with us likely to be shopping predominantly in the overpriced domestic market, the odd quality Bosman here and there would be very handy.
Mind you, maybe we’d be better off steering clear of the overseas Bosman market if the rumours linking us with Hamburg’s Sven Schipplock have any truth in them – even my desire to give every new player a full chance before starting to get critical would be be tested to breaking point with that CV!
Let’s not forget that, despite his, justified, reputation as something of a miracle worker when it comes to the Championship, Neil Warnock, who acknowledges his record when it comes to signing strikers is poor, will forever be damned by the judgment “but he couldn’t do the business in the top flight” unless he proves those critics wrong next season.
You would like to think that our manager would be backed up by a better and more understanding team than we had last time in this league. Ken Choo seems to be a definite improvement on what went before and, leaving aside the whole Malky Mackay thing for now, it’s to be hoped that Vincent Tan would have learned from the contract dispute which dogged the 13/14 team after it became public knowledge about six matches into the campaign.
For me, so much is going to depend on the quality of our recruitment this summer and whether it results in a dilution of the mental qualities which proved so valuable for us in our promotion- get it right and I honestly believe that the we can stay up, perhaps quite comfortably, given the likely shortcomings of, perhaps, a majority of the sides we will face.
I enjoyed that Paul, another interesting piece.
Warnock is his own man and will want value for money. Mackay failed miserably with his purchases of Cornelius and Odemwingie and it was expecting too much of Campbell to score the necessary number of goals.
Although I like Andre Gray is he in our ballpark? 70k a week wage plus anything from £10 million to buy. Warnock is more likely to go for a Bosman someone like Hernandez of Hull. As he favours a lone striker where does that leave Zohore and Madine?
Priorities for me are midfield and right back. Does Paterson have the ability to continue in midfield in the premiership or has he the necessary defensive quality for the premiership?
Thanks Paul for the most detailed assessment of the season ahead.
The big difference this time to 2013 is we have a manager who is not setting out to shaft our wonderful owner. And you cannot put a price on integrity.
I also trust Neil will not make the same stupid mistakes in purchases. I would leave Andre Gray where he is…seems to me a Fraizer Campbell Mk ll. It is a real pity we cannot do a deal with West Ham for Jordan Hugill…we could give them Gary Madine AND Kenneth Zohore on a straight swop…that is how highly I rate Hugill.
And Neil would surely no more buy a centre back like Caulker for 9 million (a player who had zero positional sense, and couldn’t really tackle) …and whose career has nosedived since that high watermark…than Neil would fly to the moon. Very good in the opposition’s penalty box though. Not dissimilar to Mozza…though Mozza has his edge at both ends…and is clearly the better leader of men.
And a word to Jeff…have no worries about SuperCal. To me he is the most valuable player on our books. He will captain Scotland in a year or three. Ah dear Danny Malloy…if only Rupert had pioneered his incredibly brave and risky satellite venture during YOUR playing lifetime.
You would have had a lot greater recognition than a solitary cap for Scotland B…
Well Paul I thought the season planned out very well and like you the comparisons of early season and late season is very telling. But….. I didn’t think the two games against Villa and wolves were any different from the early season it was just that we were failing to put the ball in the net.
The difference in the final games was quite simply down to a lack of a goal scoring centre forward. Yes people may go on about Zohore but he showed nothing to me that made me think he would get goals regularly. Couple that with Madine and we have the answer to the losses towards the end.
At one time we were being touted that we were front runners for grabbham and maybe he was the type of player that would not fit in to the team spirit only NW knows that but he would have won us the league with his goals.
In the premier you don’t get many chances to create and score goals so that position is key and the forwards we have will in nobodies eyes make the grade.
So if there is any money available that’s the key position this year. A creative midfielder is also on the list but after that the lads should be given the chance to enjoy the fruits of their work.
I have no doubt that everybody in the club have learned from our last premier season and you are right about the standard. Give me the championship every time for value for money.
If we finish below half way with a new centre forward and midfielder I will be surprised.
Let’s ruffle some feathers
Many thanks for a season of great reviews Paul see you in the premiership
Thanks Paul lots to read and consider, it brings to you a stark and unknown, if we approach the season in a uncompromising aka early Stoke days we could build in a fear factor that could see us grab points.
They wont lack motivation as a group they have shown they can compete against skilked sides.
Warnock knows this is his final swansong in this league ,he’s proven himself elsewhere and has taken side up, so he knows the pitfalls.
I think with a couple of good passing midfielders, some extra pace up front and a quick full back we could attain results at clubs like Brighton ,Huddersfield, Bournemouth,Southampton and more as the premiership in my view become a two tier league more than it was when we last dipped our toe in. Man City points grab and a poor Utd finishing second I feel proves that.
I will be interested to see how Holilett does if he signs and Zohore who surely will benefit from a less physical and more space league.
Some big decesions to be made in midfield for Neil , are for me the crux of where we end up , Gunnerson mmm, not sure ,Ralls will be raring to go , Patterson will be a nuisance his power along with Morrison in the opposition’s penalty box will be telling.
Last 15 minute cameos from Madine will be a chuckle.
Manga and Bennett have good skills and can play in space .
Let’s not overspend ,lets purchase like minded players as we have now, let’s just enjoy the ride.
As the Beach Boys sang “god only knows”
I reckon we’re going to be shopping at “Best Players in the Championship R Us” rather than “Premier League Pedigree Land”.
Could still be a successful tactic though.
Apologies for taking so long to reply. Jeff, I think you are probably right about Gray’s wages, but I wouldn’t rule out us paying something like £18 million for a player in transfer fees this summer. I’d be surprised to see Paterson used as a right back in the Premier League – primarily because our manager sees full back as a defensive position first and foremost.
“Incredibly brave and risky” Dai? Murdoch was on to a winner from the start with Sky – I agree it would have been a risk without the sports access Sky got mind. Also, as a fellow member of the James Tarkowski fan club from back in his days with Brentford (and possibly Oldham if I remember correctly). I have always had respect for your ability to judge a player, but I must admit to being somewhat surprised by your continual championing of Jordan Hugill. Good player and a real handful in the Championship, but just three substitute appearances for a very ordinary West Ham side since his signing in January tends to tell a story I feel – unless there’s been an injury I didn’t know about, I would be very reluctant to let Zohore and Madine go just to accommodate his arrival.
Similarly, Lewis Grabban, as recommended by Barry, is another name I’d be very so, so about signing for Cardiff – never done it in the Premier League as far as I’m concerned and he’ll be 31 in January and I think Barry might have something when he talks about the player’s attitude.
Those areas that need improving that you suggest tie in more or less exactly with mine Russell – wouldn’t be at all surprised if Gunnar has played his last game for us and I can’t help thinking that there might be an offer from another Premier League club or two for Hoilett.
Ian, I think a side capable of staying up could be put together from the current squad with four or five good additions from the Championship with the right attitude – Hernandez, as mentioned by Jeff, would be a good Bosman I reckon, but, even if we looked outside of the Premier League, three or four good and proven Championship performers wouldn’t leave you with much change from, say, £35 million these days.
Rupert Murdoch – why I won’t join the majority of my friends in giving him a good kicking…
Re your comments Paul on the man who the Left tend to hate: I want to say some words in his defence.
Rupert Murdoch is certainly a man who divides opinion. He definitely could do with learning a few lessons in diplomacy, but I will cut him some slack now as he must be in his late 80s, and people like him and Prince Philip don’t have much time left to beat around the bush. Everything they do is in a race with the undertaker.
Now, to begin at the beginning: I will concede that he had a silver spoon start to life, given that his dad was who he was.
But the history books are full of dissolute sons peeing away the family fortune.
He has done quite the contrary: he diversfied and grew the family business exponentially.
Before he went into satellite TV, his career in newspapers was a stellar one. Foremost of all his successes was his launch of THE AUSTRALIAN.
On the occasions when I have been in Australia, it has always been my newspaper of choice…trouncing as I believe it does, such eminent newspapers as the Sydney Morning Herald, and The Age (of Melbourne).
Until Murdoch made the bold move of launching it, there had never been a daily paper aimed at all Australians. But he grasped the nettle and simultaneously printed in more than one city, thus aiding distribution in such a massive country.
And he has produced a magnificent newspaper with brilliant columnists like Phillip Adams. I genuinely believe it to be the best newspaper in the English language, pipping some serious contenders Stateside.
And then look at his newspapers here. Yes I know he bowed to public pressure and closed down the News of the Screws, too hurriedly and wrongly in my opinion*, but he bought The Times and brought it into the last knockings of the Twentieth Century…not least by embracing new technology and standing up to bullying wildcat strikes that regularly saw newspapers not appear in the late 70s early 80s…or when they did appear, they did so with large sections redacted on the instructions of the Father of The Chapel, or some such union official.
Interestingly, if many reasonable people still sided with the Luddites (as a part of me did…being the son of a Rhondda miner killed by the NCB at just 56), then as soon as Eddie Shah and Rupert Murdoch installed the new printing presses, these Luddite supporters immediately did a volte face.
And every other newspaper quickly followed suit…even eventually The Morning Star.
And as for satellite technology…how anyone thinks he was obviously “on to a winner”, bemuses me. For there were only a measly seven bidders when satellite TV in Britain was about to launch in the late 80s. Hardly indicative of a licence to print money, eh? Had there been Untold Riches on the menu, then hundreds of companies and corporations would surely have been queuing up.
Remember one successful competitor, BSB and their “Squarial” square aerials? They eventually found the investment just prohibitive. And as for SKY…well the share price started to collapse after profits vanished with the setting up of its whole analog satellite system. But when eventually they swallowed up the ailing BSB, and started to get their heads above water, blow me if DIGITAL satellite technology did not appear on the scene…!!
And so then, every subscriber needed a new digital dish, and the massive costs of upgrading aerials, boxes and programme technology, suddenly set SKY’s profits into a nosedive into the red. Many investors bailed out of SKY…but Murdoch was brave and stood firm.
And thank heavens he did…even though it has led to obscenities like Alexis Sanchez being paid close on half a million quid a week at Old Trafford.
No Paul, it was far from obvious that Rupert Murdoch was “on to a winner” and would succeed in his satellite venture.
Satellite TV nearly three decades later, already has a graveyard that is pretty full of broken dreams and failed ventures.
Remember ITV DIGITAL suddenly going bust in 2002…and the resultant crippling of the economy of several lower league clubs who had budgeted for their large cheque that never came…? And in 2009 the disappearance of Irish satellite tyro, Setanta Sports..?
No Murdoch is lots of things…he is cynical (changing nationality for business reasons), brusque, and a bully (though not I fancy even remotely of the Maxwellian or Kerry Packer type).
But he is, I submit, also incontrovertibly …BRAVE.
*The Daily Mirror (and other papers to a lesser degree) indulged in phone hacking on an industrial scale, yet was never closed down by Trinity Mirror. What sunk the News of the World was the Millie Dowler affair and the terrible damning allegation on the front page of The Guardian that the Murdoch’s journalists had been deleting the poor girl’s voice box …and thus wrongly giving the impression that she was still alive and doing this act herself. Thus the NOTW had given the desperate parents false hope.
The Guardian indeed holed its tabloid fellow newspaper below the waterline with this accusation, and the atmosphere was so toxic that all decent people wanted The News of The Screws closed down, me included. And Rupert quickly bowed to the inevitable, and a solid tabloid newspaper was closed down. It struck me as a far, far better read than its direct competitors, The Sunday Mirror and The People. And it was a newspaper that had done some wonderful public service stings…
Remember the Fake Sheikh doing Sven up like a kipper? And then getting Fergie to ask for a cool half a million if she got an Arab businessman access to Prince Andrew? And similarly getting Newcastle directors Freddie Shepherd and Douglas Hall to laugh disdainfully at Alan Shearer’s clean image, deride Toon fans for paying daft prices for replica shirts that cost the club a pittance from factories in the Third World, and then (most shockingly) call Geordie women “dogs”?!
These were just some of the wonderful NOTW stings to expose fraudulent behaviour.
But then, when this 170 year old iconic tabloid newspaper is still warm in its grave, what happens? Dynamite is what happens. Dynamite.
It turns out that far from The News of The World cynically torturing the Dowler family by deleting calls and giving the family false hope that their beloved girl was still alive, the truth was somewhat different. It seems it was an automatic deletion process in the system of her mobile supplier, all along…!!
But this bombshell came after the News of the World was closed down, and Murdoch had given the family a million quid.
The Guardian had smeared and actually destroyed a famous newspaper…but did they apologise?
Well, yes…sort of…but not on the front page this time…and most grudgingly, and in a few sentences buried away circa page 14.
As if The Guardian’s shameful treatment of Julian Assange was not bad enough. I tell you, CP Scott is still turning in his grave.
Thanks Paul for mentioning Jordan Hugill.
You say, “but just three substitute appearances for a very ordinary West Ham side since his signing in January tends to tell a story”.
Yes. It tells the story that the manager had the gumption to tell their right winger that he was such a talent that he should be allowed to play havoc straight down the middle. And Andy Carroll when fit couldn’t even come on as a sub.
Am I saying that Jordan Hugill is another Marko Arnautovic?
No. Nobody is.
But I am saying he is a proper centre forward, as Jeff Blight avers.
Andy Carroll made four appearances for West Ham in the last month of the season after being out injured since January, scoring once – Hugill was not used in that time, so, barring the injury I don’t know about that I alluded to earlier, he was seen as third choice striker at a pretty ordinary Premier League team. In saying that, I would have him here as a replacement for Gary Madine (who I don’t see making a Premier League player) because that would give us two strikers that are big and powerful, but also offered a contrast – I accept that Hugill needs more time to make a mark in the top flight and while I would be slightly disappointed to see him coming here, I think there would be a decent chance that he could prove me wrong.
As for Rupert Murdoch, I’ll agree he has been brave at times in his business career and I daresay this helped him get to a position where he had sufficient money to pour into Sky at the start. That money made the whole thing less of a gamble for him than it was for most others who were around at the onset of satellite broadcasting, there was definitely big money to be made and so I don’t see him as being particularly brave there – he would have known that he was always likely to have the power to blow away the opposition.
Very, very interesting and well written series of articles. Very thought provoking.
I think it was a good job we did not have to go through the playoffs. It would have been extremely difficult.
In respect of the future, I suspect that the various names currently linked with the City are largely dropped into the press sporting pages by agents and do not represent an indication of what NW is thinking. Premier League money will not go very far. Neil will have to be economical and we can only hope that he will have a trick or two up his sleeve. If Eddie Howe can keep Bournemouth levitating in the PL, why not Neil?
I also think that Tan is likely to be considering sale of the Club. He seems to have lost his early, touchingly naive enthusiasm and this would be a good chance to offload.
On the playing side, and as an aside, even though he cannot head a ball (he seems to have no spatial awareness!) I suspect that Zahore will be much more effective in the more open spaces of the PL than he was in the hard tackling confines of the Championship. His speed and power, when he turns them on, are formidable weapons.
Paul,
I am quite a fan of Simon Jordan. He is an abrasive character with lots of enemies, but perverse fellow that I am, I think he is super intelligent and speaks lots of good sense.
And by golly, look what he says about a chap you admire, though a fellow who I emphatically do not.
I refer to Gary Rowatt…the man who I reckon had his fingerprints all over SNOWGATE.
Jordan really nails the blighter here…once and for all.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/he-hops-around-bats-eyelids-14699787