Sometime last week, in an online conversation somewhere, I ventured the opinion that Cardiff City were a better side than Brighton and Hove Albion for more than a half of last season’s Premier League campaign. I don’t think there can be much doubt that City were stronger than Huddersfield Town and Fulham, who were relegated along with us, but was there another team that we could, realistically, have bettered to secure a third season in the top flight?
As mentioned above, Brighton were the only genuine contender in my book. Yes, I thought Burnley looked a very poor side when they, somehow, ended up beating us at home back in September and Southampton under Mark Hughes’ management bore many of the hallmarks of a relegation outfit, but the former rediscovered their trademark resilience in the second half of the season and the latter were soon showing improvement under Ralph Hasenhüttl’s management after he had lost his first game in charge in Cardiff.
When Brighton came to Cardiff in early November, they had fourteen points from ten games and a continuance of that sort of form over the course of a full season would have seen them end up with a total of around fifty points with the possibility of a top half finish.
That goes to the heart of why it is us, rather than the Seagulls, who’ll be playing in the Championship in the coming season. While they were piling up the points in the first three months or so of the season, we amassed a mere five, taking all of nine weeks to record our first win.
City left themselves with too much to do from the end of October onwards to overhaul the team that we beat so comfortably at the Amex Stadium in April, but I would argue that the fact that we amassed seven more points than Brighton over the last six months of the season confirms my contention in the first paragraph – we were better than them for the majority of the season.
That’s not an end to it though because, as explained by SBD , our actual point total from last year (34) was 3.5 points lower than their Expected Points, which is based on how many chances they generated relative to their opponents. So, even with the very large hurdle we created for ourselves from August to October, it seems we would have cleared it by amassing more points than the team that finished just above us if we had been more clinical in front of goal and scored as frequently as our build up play merited.
Unfortunately, the goal-challenged squad will be without co-leading scorer Víctor Camarasa, who’s headed back to Real Bettis, and, as yet, Cardiff haven’t brought in any new scoring threats via the transfer market. Therefore, Cardiff are by no means a certainty to earn promotion next season, but the Bluebirds have the fourth-best odds at +350 (7/2) and, as outlined above, were, in reality, a little unlucky to be relegated in the first place.
It can be argued that the lower standard of defending in the Championship may be sufficient for Cardiff to find it easy enough to come up with the goals they couldn’t find in 2018/19, but the likes of Bobby Decordova-Reid and Josh Murphy will need to up their goalscoring rate significantly and the money from the imminent departure of Kenneth Zohore (West Brom have had a bid accepted for him today) spent well if Cardiff are to earn a return to the Premier League.
I just do not understand why we keep on hearing about possible signings of defenders or midfielders when I thought almost the only thing all Bluebirds supporters could agree on was that we needed STRIKERS who could and would score goals. Is it that we have become so proud of converting a Scottish international full-back into perhaps our most lethal striker and a Spanish loanee into one of our most dangerous attackers that we’re looking to players who think of themselves as defenders or midfielders to score the goals which will have to be scored if we are to challenge to return to the Premiership this season? I don’t mind losing Kenneth Zohore, who I hope will disappoint West Brom as much as he did us last season, but I think we never gave Rhys Healey the chance he deserved. And what we get from selling them both is not going to be enough to buy the striker we sorely and surely need!
I cannot understand why any competent judge of football would see Zohore through rose-tinted glasses, but good luck to him if his move to the Midlands transpires. Neil Warnock’s biggest mistake was to cover him with what I felt virtually from the outset was unjustified praise, and then to continue selecting him even after the arrival of Gary Madine. I also think that Madine could be as good as any of the strikers now being touted as the answer to our prayers, provided he is given the same sort of opportunities in the Championship as those previously enjoyed by Zohore. A rejuvenated Tomlin could also be a revelation. Only time will tell.
Look mr warnock if we now don’t sign 2 strikers then who are going to put the ball in the net no strikers equals no points goals so we will not go up get your act together Neil speculate to accumulate push the boat out
Morning everyone, the replies all centre on our transfer activity, or the lack of it, this week, so I’ll give one or two general thoughts on that. We drew 1-1 against New Mexico United last night and, while accepting that we’ve got a few players missing from the tour party, our side last night showed that we look anything but a promotion chasing side on paper – Omar Bogle scored a fine equaliser from a free kick, but the fact he is playing for us after struggling to get in the Portsmouth side at the end of last season tells its own story about our lack of credible forward options after the sale of the man generally reckoned to be our first choice striker when we last played competitively.
There appears to be a general acceptance that Bruno is leaving now and, given his and Kenneth Zohore’s contract situations, cashing in on them is not something that strikes me as a bad thing (we’ve ended up getting nothing for too many players who would have netted us a decent sum if we’d sold them at the right time down the years), but Neil Warnock really does need to get their replacements right and I’m afraid his buying record since he came here when spending the sort of sums we’re likely to is patchy at best.
Most reports say we’re paying more for Auden Flint (who is, apparently, having a medical today) than we are receiving for Bruno and yet, although Flint has been a good Championship level defender in recent years, I can’t help thinking I wish we were keeping Bruno. Flint is not a disastrous signing by any means, but he and Sean Morrison strike me as very samey – a great pairing to play against sides using Neil Warnock type tactics, but against sides that look to move centrebacks around (as an increasing number of Championship sides do based on last season’s evidence), we may have problems.
Given we were prepared to sell Zohore before we had bought in a replacement for him, I can only assume that we have one lined up and, more than in any other position, we will definitely be shopping in an inflated market if we choose to buy domestically – for me, that means spending £10 million at least on one player if we want to see an improvement on what we had and, as David says, with Rhys Healey having also left the club this week, there is an argument for saying that we need two new forwards.
Good evening Paul – Thanks for your views with which I absolutely agree. Sad to lose Bruno, and if I’m honest Zahore also. Morrison and Flint are so alike and no pace in either of them. But will that matter when Vaulks arrows his long throws into the penalty area. Absolutely for we will be caught on the break and their tardiness really could cause problems when we come up against nimble attackers. I just hope our Oxford newcomer will prove to be quicker, if he is ever selected, in the heart of the defence.
As for our attacking options, I suspect there is some faith being placed upon Madine, and in Tomlin in midfield. That hardly fills me with enthusiasm. And we seem to be having competition for the Senegalese mid-fielder that we were supposed favourites to sign. I suspect a busy week ahead and wonder if there are to be more departures, particularly with Schalke interested in Murphy.
And only two goals in America, one from a penalty and the other from a free kick, is hardly encouraging. But I’m being defeatist before the season starts – I must keep the faith, but there have been better weeks.