A defeat against the impressive Italians, but Wales head to Amsterdam and the knock out stages

With a defensive holding operation which I suppose you might expect from a side which, three goals in Belgium excepted, has a superb goals against record in competitive games in recent seasons, Wales qualified for the round of sixteen in the 2021 Euros, thereby making it an impressive three qualifications from the group stages in the three major competitions they’ve played in..

Although beaten 1-0 by Italy in Rome this evening, Wales made it through to the knock out stages as of right because of a superior goal difference over Switzerland who could not bring about the five goal swing needed to take them into second place, despite a 3-1 win over the very disappointing Turks.

I’d by pretty confident if I were Swiss mind because four points with a goal difference of minus one will surely be enough for them to clinch one of the four best third place finishes for them, but they’re going to have to go through a few days of nervous waiting before getting confirmation of this – Wales, on the other hand, know that they will be playing their next game in Amsterdam next Saturday evening..

As to who we’ll be playing, it’ll be the runners up in group B, but, as that could still be any of the four teams involved, it’s all still something of a mystery until tonight when the final round of fixtures in that group are played.

Although, our recent defeat against them doesn’t mean that we need to stop calling ourselves Belgium’s bogey side, we should be grateful that it is very unlikely to be them that we face. A draw in their final game against Finland would guarantee them first place, as, indeed, would a one goal defeat, with things only getting complicated if any defeat is by two or more goals.

Although the Finns have shown themselves to be defensively well organised and their victory over Denmark, albeit a traumatised Denmark, shows they’re capable of pulling off an upset, the likelihood is that Finland will end up with three points hoping that any defeat by the Belgians will be narrow enough to give them the chance of still finishing as runners up.

For that to happen, a Denmark side with no points from their two games so far would have to beat Russia knowing that a single goal win may not be enough to get them second spot, while the Russians could well end up rueing their 3-0 defeat against the Belgians when it comes to a second placed finish,with the probability being that they will have to avoid defeat to stand a chance of qualifying automatically or even as a best placed third.

If I had to predict, I’d say we will end up facing the team that are currently bottom of the group, Denmark. With Christian Eriksen discharged from hospital after a successful operation to fit him with a defibrillator, I’m sure the mood in the Danish camp is a better one and, having watched their unlucky 2-1 defeat against Belgium in midweek where they looked what they are, a top ten side in the world rankings, the Danes are the team I fear most out of our three likely opponents – I’d very pleasantly surprised if were able to beat them.

As for Finland and Russia, I’d say we would be looking at a very tight game where we might just be considered slight favourites. After all, we beat Finland twice in Nations League qualification, while I wouldn’t mind betting that there are some in the Russian side that still wake up in a cold sweat brought on by nightmares about what Messrs Ramsey, Bale and Taylor did to them in 2016! Being a bit more serious, I’ve not been too impressed with what I’ve seen of Russia in the competition so far, while Finland have something of an Iceland 2016 look to them which would make them doughty, if somewhat limited, opposition.

Coming back to what we do know, by finishing second in what I would rate as a tougher group than the one we won in 2016 (Russia were, arguably, better than Turkey this time around, while I’d argue Italy and Switzerland were better than England and Slovakia), Wales have defied their seeding, their odds and the large majority of pundits who had them down to finish last.

While we may not be in Croatia territory with their record of second and third placed finishes at World Cups and Iceland’s achievement of reaching the Quarter Finals in 2016 was remarkable considering their population of not much over six hundred thousand, Wales have done enough in the last five years to be up there challenging for a top six place in any country with a small population punching above their weight league table – no matter what happens from here, I believe our Euro campaign of 2021 now has to follow 1958 and 2016 as being deemed a success.

As for today, it could be said that the two manager/coaches went with different approaches when it came to team selection. While Roberto Mancini, with his team’s qualification secured, made eight changes, Robert Page limited himself to three as he left the three members of his squad facing a suspension if they picked up another booking (Keiffer Moore, Chris Mepham and Ben Davies) on the bench and brought in Neco Williams, Chris Gunter and Ethan Ampadu which meant that we reverted to the 3-4-3/5-3-2-1 seen in the last of the warm up games against Albania.

That day, we were non existent as an attacking force until we brought on Moore at half time and changed our formation – we had next to nothing to offer up front today as well, but this time we had an excuse in that we were playing a very good team.

After Italy had beaten Switzerland by a 3-0 score line that did not flatter them in the slightest, I saw a pundits’ discussion on ITV involving Gary Neville, Patrick Vierra and Roy Keane in which Italy were almost completely written off as possible winners of the tournament on the grounds that they had not played anyone good yet. Because I genuinely believe that the people who have played the game for a living have a better knowledge of it than those of us who are just spectators, I thought “fair enough” when I heard that verdict while thinking to myself that Italy were definitely the most impressive side I’ve seen so far.

Time will tell whether those three, who hold two hundred and sixty nine more international caps than I do, were right and I was wrong, but today Italy proved that, with something like a second string team out, they still are a very impressive outfit.

There was still the same intense high pressing game that had made life so difficult for Switzerland and Turkey and it is to Wales’ credit that they did not go the same way by suffering a three goal defeat or worse – especially when you consider that we had to play the last thirty five minutes with ten men following Ampsdu’s red card.

The Chelsea player was dismissed for a foul on Federico Bernardeschi where his foot was slightly off the floor when he made contact with the Italian’s shin. It was, we were told, a definite red card under the current interpretation of the law, but all that means to me is that the current interpretation is wrong.

 If you include our last Under 21 fixture, Wales have now had three players sent off in their last six games – there was Williams’ pathetic red card for handball against France and, although I’ve not seen Sion Spence’s sending off against Moldova, the fact he got a second yellow card, for a perceived dive, which was shown to him as he was being carried off on a stretcher rather tells a story!

It’s not the laws that are wrong, it’s the modern day interpretation being put on them that’s the problem – none of the three players would have seen red in more sensible times.

I won’t go into any great detail on the game. Suffice it to say that Italy’s 23-3 win in the goal attempts category accurately captures how the match went.

The winning goal was overdue by the time it arrived in the thirty sixth minute, but Wales will be angry and concerned that both of the goals they’ve conceded in the competition up to now have come from dead ball situations – this one was from a free kick by the very impressive Marco Verratti touched in by Matteo Pessina as he gained a vital yard on Joe Morrell.

Hardly surprisingly, Morrell’s limitations against opponents this good were exposed at times, but what do you expect from someone who spent most of last season on the Luton Town substitutes bench? Similarly, Charlton’s Gunter struggled occasionally, while the contributions of Joe Allen, Ampadu and Danny Ward, with his kicking anyway, told a story about how their league seasons had gone.

I’ve heard it said a few times that Italy are strongest in midfield at the moment, whereas, great servant though Allen has been and continues to be, this is the area where we are weakest. Little wonder then that I watched the game thinking that Wales’ world might collapse at any moment, but they were able to get a save (Ward was very good in that department again), a block or a challenge in that would prevent a goal – although we rode our luck on occasions, no one could deny our resilience and spirit.

Indeed, there were decent opportunities to end Italy’s ten game run without conceding a goal – Gunter probably came as close to scoring his first international goal as he’s ever done when he nodded Dan James’ corner on to the roof of the net and in the second half Ramsey got free in the inside right channel but was unconvincing, albeit from a narrow angle, as he seemed unsure what to do next. The worst miss was Bale’s though – he was completely unmarked as Joe Rodon’s header from a free kick dropped to him on his left foot about ten yards out, but his volley flew well over the bar, it was the sort of chance I’d expect him to score from about eight times out of ten.