Relegation looms for Cardiff City, but imploding Brighton offer hope.

A phone call just as I was settling down to watch Cardiff City’s vital game at Burnley today altered my plans for the afternoon as I had to rush off in the car to help with a friend’s domestic emergency. In the event, it didn’t turn out to be as bad as first thought, but it did mean that the match was virtually over by the time I got home.

Therefore, this is another of those periodic postings where I will have probably seen less and know less about the game City have just played than most of the people who get to read this.

Because of that, I’ll limit myself to just a few general comments about where we find ourselves now after our 2-0 defeat and also the controversial incidents that left the Cardiff contingent feeling they had been hard done by again by the officials.

The first thing to say is that we need to beat one of Liverpool or Manchester United to overhaul Burnley now and even in the unlikely event of us doing that, Sean Dyche’s side would need to lose all of their remaining matches.

To all intents and purposes, Burnley are safe then and I think you can say the same about Southampton following their 3-1 win over a Wolves side that, yet again, proved to be just the sort of opposition struggling sides need to be facing at this time of the season (for all of the, justified, praise Wolves have had when they play the top teams, they have found things much harder against sides at the bottom than they should have done). Don’t forget that the Saints have that banker of a home match with Huddersfield to fall back on if needs be on the final day of the season.

Brighton, who I’ll talk about in more detail shortly, must now be the one team that City can still entertain hopes of overtaking, but they have to go there on Tuesday knowing that, in reality, a draw would leave us having to take something from our two remaining matches against top six sides to stay up if the Seagulls take just the one point from their other five remaining matches – our awful goal difference ensures that.

I’ve read on messageboards this evening that our loss today makes no difference to our chances because the situation between Brighton and us has not changed, but I can’t agree with that. Our options have got much more limited after today because we are getting much closer to a scenario whereby we cannot just write the Liverpool and Manchester United games.off and I’m afraid that if and when we get into that territory, there is nothing in our results or performances against the top clubs to suggest we will get even one point off them.

It also needs to be said that, at this level, there are no games where we can take victory for granted. I’m sure that any combination of results from the remainder of the Premier League programme picked out by supporters that has City surviving has us winning at already relegated Fulham and beating a Palace team with nothing to play for at Cardiff City Stadium. However, besides the limitations that have been the main reason for many pundits having as down as prime relegation candidates from day one of the season, it has to be pointed out that by beating Everton 2-0 at Craven Cottage this afternoon, Fulham achieved a result that I would say is as impressive as any we have managed thus far. Similarly, Palace’s away record tells us that probably the only way we can beat them is if they are mentally on the beach for what will be their penultimate match of the season.

The most likely outcome of all of this has to be relegation for City and I think I’m right in saying that it could come as early as next Sunday if results keep on going against us like they have been in recent weeks.

The cold, hard facts say that we are now in a place where a side that has lost six out of its last seven games, has to, at the very least, win three out of its remaining five – it’s not going to happen is it and yet there is still one lifeline for City to cling to.

For most of 2019, apart from the likes of Huddersfield, Fulham and, to a lesser degree, us, Bournemouth have been the sort of side any Premier League team would look forward to playing on their own ground – their very good start to the season meant that relegation has never really been an issue for them, but they’d lost eleven of their last twelve away matches before today.

Actually, there is another Premier League side that teams could anticipate taking three points off in the days before meeting them with great confidence.

Apart from their wins in successive matches over Huddersfield and Palace a few weeks back, Brighton’s league results in the last five months or so have been wretched and that’s why, with matches against Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester City to come, today’s visit from Bournemouth was absolutely huge for them. Beat Bournemouth and they could go into Tuesday’s match with us in a very confident frame of mind, but a loss today would really make for a very tense atmosphere among the home team and fans for what would become a critical midweek game at the Amex.

However, it’s one thing to go into that match having been beaten by, say, 2-1 by Bournemouth and another thing completely to have to face us having lost 5-0l on your own patch to a side with no away form to speak of – I find it impossible to believe that Brighton won’t be scared stiff going into Tuesday’s game and I would really fancy our chances if we could score first.

A win for us would be a real momentum changer and I reckon that could help greatly in our bid to get those six points off Fulham and Palace. As for Brighton, besides those three games against top six sides I mentioned earlier, a visit to Wolves and a home game with safe now Newcastle would appear to offer them hope, but a loss to us following on from today’s thrashing would leave them absolutely on the floor mentally – I reckon if we could add two more victories to one against Brighton we’d stay up.

Mind you, to do that we will certainly need a bit more luck when it comes to the big decisions in games. I still believe that the only reason we didn’t beat Chelsea was the ineptitude of the referee and one of his linesmen. Despite it being generally agreed that Burnley were the better side today, I’ve heard pundits say that we should have had three penalties and there is also talk on messageboards about Ashley Barnes being offside and interfering with play while he was stood in front of Neil Etheridge for the first goal.

Having not seen any of the controversial incidents yet, I can only go by what people who have seen them are saying, but the incident whereby referee Mike Dean awarded a penalty for handball against Ben Mee then, seemingly, told a linesman who believed it was handball that it wasn’t and promptly changed his mind sounds downright bizarre.

More than any other of the Premier League referees, Mr Dean has always struck me as someone who likes to give a penalty, so it seems odd that having given one today, he had such a dramatic change of mind – maybe it was a sort of revenge for the very soft penalty he gave us which enabled Ross McCormack to rescue a draw for us in added time in the last South Wales derby match to be played at Ninian Park!

Interestingly, Sean Morrison seemed to think that our shout for a penalty after Charlie Taylor appeared to bring down Aron Gunnarsson was a stronger one than the one Mr Dean had second thoughts on – I’ll have to wait and see about that for a few hours more yet, but more blunders by officials to match the ones against Chelsea would have me thinking that someone up there wants us relegated.

Finally, it should be recorded that Cardiff City beat Burnley 5-3 on aggregate today, because our Under 18s rounded off their regular season programme with a 5-1 win at Treforest this lunchtime. Burnley got the scoring going by taking a tenth minute lead, but Sam Bowen, Connor Davies and Kieron Evans all scored between the thirty third and fortieth minutes to give us a comfortable half time lead.

After that, Dan Griffiths added a fourth not long after he was involved in an off the ball incident which saw a Burnley defender receive a red card. The scoring was completed by sub Siyobonga Licenza and so City head into the Play Offs not in great form, but with a degree of confidence restored following a first win in five games.

Elsewhere, league leaders Ipswich suffered a second successive 4-0 defeat against a Sheffield side as United beat them on their own pitch, so City find themselves back at the top of the table and will be Champions if Ipswich fail to win at Palace (who are unbeaten in five matches) on Thursday.

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8 Responses to Relegation looms for Cardiff City, but imploding Brighton offer hope.

  1. Pr says:

    Correct that someone wants us relegated. I was saying this in 13/14. Too many big decisions go against us for it to be coincidental.
    I thought first penalty would have been harsh and would have been livid if it was given against us. The blocked shot where Heaton was diving and bringing gunnerson down were penalties.
    I felt their full back dived for the free kick that they got the corner from. I don’t think Etheridge touched it, ex referee Walton has stated the same. Apart from offside Manga was being blocked/obstructed.
    That’s 7 or 8 game changing decisions in 2 games.
    I might be ridiculed for this comment but are the premiership discriminating against Cardiff City. I feel they are!!!
    I have written to them, no reply, and the refs association who replied that mistakes happen and they are continually improving. Well I don’t see that improvement and neither do FIFA who did not take one English ref to the world cup.
    Every Cardiff supporter should write to then to show how enraged we are by their biased treatment of us. It’s one thing to lose but another to lose when the result is contrived by an attention seeking ref. Who incidently state after the game ‘oops I made a mistake’ again. They have no thought or care about us supporters who spend a lot of money following Cardiff in the hope we will see an honest result.
    If anyone wants the refs association email I can provide it.

  2. ANTHONY O'BRIEN says:

    Dear Brethren,
    My Sermon today is about the IMPORTANCE OF HOPE (and I don’t just mean the valuable contributions to this very site by the eponymous MIKE HOPE. It is the HOPE mentioned in the regular high standard of today’s opus from our revered Blogmeister.)
    Here beginneth the PARABLE OF THE RAT IN THE VAT.
    In olden times when cider was a favoured drink it was the practice to place the crushed juice of the apples into a vat to be “churned”. This was usually achieved by throwing a rat into the vat to churn the liquid by swimming round and round. If the rat wasn’t taken out after a short time it would simply give up HOPE and drown. If it was taken out, however, and then returned to the vat it would continue swimming for a very long time in the ongoing HOPE OF SURVIVAL.
    For everyone connected in some way with the fate of Cardiff City the continued SENSE OF HOPE is crucial. I must therefore admit that, as soon as I saw yesterday’s team sheet, my HOPES WITHERED. I could not understand why Kenneth Zohore had been selected ahead of Niasse.
    There may have been unknown reasons for this selection, but it looks very much as if Niasse was being punished for missing a goal opportunity towards the end of the game against Chelsea. He may have lost confidence or composure as he raced towards goal and lost control of the ball by overhitting it, but I would argue that his lack of ball control, as anyone with knowledge of football must know, often comes with exhaustion. In my opinion he was exhausted after his trademark all-action display compounded by a long sprint to reach the through pass.

    Can this ever be said of Kenneth Zohore?
    A team relying on the aforesaid Zohore is inevitably facing a FORLORN HOPE (in the CURRENT inaccurate translation of the term).
    Looking back over two seasons I am convinced that Neil Warnock made a great mistake when he claimed that Kenneth Zohore would save Cardiff City the expense of buying a genuine centre forward. This mistake was compounded by the continued selection of the player and the failure to find someone else — a case of too little, too late.
    It avails nothing to keep harping on bad luck, missed opportunities, poor refereeing decisions — all that is covered by the Parable of the Spilt Milk.
    Our team needs to be a FORLORN HOPE in the ORIGINAL Dutch sense of the term — the Verloren Hoop, warriors, the bravest of the brave who have a never-say-die spirit at the forefront of the conflict and lead by example. We are deep in the vat. But the team needs to keep churning to the bitter end in the HOPE OF A MIRACLE. This is the only response the team and genuine supporters must make. HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL.

  3. Pr says:

    I was seriously thinking of not renewing my season ticket because the refs are ruining my enjoyment. I expect to lose, fairly, not by contrived results. This is what we are getting.
    We may have had just one decision go for us. Huddersfield penalty. That started outside box and it appeared Bennett was the one pulled down. So it was harsh in first instance.
    There have been plenty against us. Team handball, chambers foul. Both Fulham. Chelsea. Yesterday.
    Manga pen was harsh v Bournemouth.
    There are so many I cannot remember all.
    Come on officials give us fair and honest results and allow teams to win or lose by their own means without you altering the results and making headlines for yourselves.
    City are not up to standard but we should be relegated on merit not due to officials interference. How do they sleep at night knowing how they have affected and wronged so many supporters who paid a lot of their wages or pensions to see the match

  4. Colin Phillips says:

    Thank you again, Paul.

    And thank you very much, Anthony, a very educational and well written comment. I knew not about rats in the vat or the Dutch warrior tribe – never too old to learn, eh.

    LikePaul, I have seen nothing of the game but did listen to commentary on Radio Five Live. Sounded like a lot of endeavour but a lack of skill and composure – sounds like City.

    I must say my hope departed with that Chelsea goal, it seemed like a sign. Can’t really believe there is a conspiracy to get us relegated but there are moments when you wonder.

    I have invested in a season ticket for next season and I am resigned to watching Championship football. Not a total downer in that hopefully we will be competitive in most, if not all, games – bear in mind the last live game I went to was the Manchester City “game”.

  5. Geoff Lewis says:

    Thanks Paul and fellow Supporters, It does feel that there is a conspiracy against Cardiff City with all these decisions going against us, but never the less we cant seem lately to score from open play. Hoillett missed a sitter yesterday. Our only chance is to win a few games and not rely on Brighton to lose all their games.
    Conspiracy who knows who would benefit?.Are there brown envelopes going around to officials etc Perhaps in later years it will all come out or not. Who killed President Kennedy ? Biggest cover up ever.

  6. HuwPerry says:

    Thanks Paul and others. Added cider knowledge thrown in for good measure – such an education this site!
    I decided to take myself away from the stress of the match by taking the dog for a big walk around Roath Park during the match. I paused and checked my phone for updates at regular intervals, but decided to relax and enjoy the sunshine instead of stressing for the duration. All to no avail as the hope – that word again – of a late rally/equaliser was lost with the killer second Burnley goal.
    MOTD highlights showed again our lack of luck but, more tellingly, our inability to make the most of a couple of good opportunities that came our way. This has been a familiar theme in most matches when we have been beaten and that lack of goal scoring punch is a real weakness.
    It appeared we gave it a right good go in the second half, but no luck and agree at least one penalty shout should have gone our way. I know we will all be collectively kicking ourselves if we miss out by a couple of points come season end.
    The only consolation, as highlighted by Paul, was the wretched performance by Brighton. They looked like us at our worst and must be on the floor after that performance . Agree an early goal from us tomorrow could make things tasty. Living in hope I know , with then only rampant Liverpool to tackle next Sunday!

  7. BJA says:

    Paul and others – Late to the party this week and like Colin, listened to the whole game on 5 Live, and not until late last night did I see the three incidents where we could have, no should have had decisions go in our favour. But they did not, so we have to get on with it. As I have stated more than once this year, I believe in the impartiality of the Premiership officials, but do question their competency. Sadly, NW’s outbursts on this very same subject has landed him in trouble with the FA but how does that organisation justify financial penalties, if that is what they will award, when the evidence seems clear enough that some of their officials have made serious errors of judgement. A good advocate could have a field day.
    So we now need a come back of mammoth proportions and having spent much of the week-end marvelling at the goings on in Augusta, take heart City. It ani’t over yet.
    And oh yes, I have renewed my season ticket.

  8. The other Bob Wilson says:

    Morning everyone and thanks for your replies. The first thing to say is that I have now watched all but about ten minutes of the game on the club website, so can comment about the various controversies now – – keeping it brief, my opinion is;-
    1. First handball by Mee – could have gone either way.
    2. Second handball by Mee – no way a penalty in my eyes, but I don’t get how and why the decision was changed after it had been made.
    3. Foul on Gunnar – penalty for me.
    4. Offside claim for first goal – nothing wrong with it in my book, City should look more at their woeful defending which left Wood completely unmarked (we struggled all afternoon from Burnley free kicks and corners), but I would say that I’m not convinced it was a corner in the first place.
    I thought Mike Dean was poor throughput the game and he’s usually someone who I think of as being one of the better Premier League referees.
    Where I think City had justified grounds for complaint is that, unless there was something in the ten minutes I’ve not seen, all of the major decisions in the match went in Burnley’s favour despite some of them being genuine 50/50s and one or two others being, say, 80/20 in our favour. Nothing I saw on Saturday was as bad as some of the absolutely atrocious decisions we had go against us in the Chelsea match, but at least in that game the officials’ ineptitude worked in our favour once when Gunnar blatantly grabbed someone’s shirt in the penalty area early in the game.
    I firmly believe that the decisions have not evened themselves out over the course of the season as the cliche tells us they will do and, just as in our first season in this league, we’ve been far more sinned against than sinning when it comes to referees and linesmen making dodgy decisions.
    However, I’m not convinced by the view put forward by Pr and others that this is all some sort of plan to get us relegated because, as is alleged by some, we’re Welsh. Pr himself makes the good point that no English referees were selected for the 2018 World Cup Final tournament and for me the reason for this is that, although I think Michael Oliver was unlucky to miss out, they are simply not good enough as a group. For me, the officials who’ve given us so little in recent weeks are not bent, crooked or whatever else you want to call them, they’re just not very good. Let’s be honest, the ref on Saturday awarded us two penalties in a minute or two last season and he also enabled us to escape with a point against the jacks when awarding us a very controversial late penalty in a game where he had received a head wound after being hit on the head by a missile thrown by a Cardiff fan – for me, it was never a penalty that day, Mike Dean got it very wrong, but it was us who benefited.
    What I will say is that as a smaller. unestablished, member of this league, we perhaps suffer from what I would say is a probably subconscious tendency on the part of referees and linesmen/women to favour the more traditional Premier League outfits with there, perhaps, being a pecking order which sees the big six at the top because of the furore a wrong decision which costs them a game will cause, followed by more established outfits like Everton, West Ham, Leicester etc through to the likes of Burnley who are “established” in the Premier League in a way that we aren’t. I’d say a team like Huddersfield, despite having survived a season, are in the same boat as us at the bottom of that pecking order and maybe the same could be said of someone like Brighton – I’m not wholly convinced by this argument by any means, but I can acknowledge the possibility of it being true in a way I cannot do when it comes to any anti Welsh conspiracy.

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