Brilliant in the Championship, but how will Neil Warnock try to transform his Premier League fortunes?

I don’t know if it’s the same for most City fans, but it’s still too soon for me to try and place where this latest promotion rates alongside the other ones I’ve experienced – in lots of ways, five days after the event, it’s still not really sunk in yet for me.

This was the ninth promotion for the club since I first saw them play in 1963 and my gut instinct is that it will become one of my favourite ones, primarily because it was so unexpected. One thing I can say with some certainty is that this promotion will come to be associated with one person more than the other eight were.

I say that while noting that Rick Wright was very much the driving force behind the 1992/93 double winners who captured only the club’s second league title and the Welsh Cup.

Also, however he is viewed by City fans these days, Sam Hammam was the catalyst for our promotion to what is now League One eight years later. Indeed, the level of idolatry Hammam used to get back then was probably the equal of the man who will come to be seen as the architect of our second promotion to the Premier League. As much as Sam tried to involve himself with what was going on out on the pitch though, he was always a bystander like the rest of us once the action got under way, whereas Neil Warnock was there all of the time bellowing out instructions, making the fourth officials life a misery and plotting tactical changes and substitutions which, glory be, actually worked sometimes.

No, I can’t remember a person who has dominated promotion post mortems as much as Neil Warnock has done this time.

Right from his first game when a confident and in form Bristol City side turned up at Cardiff City Stadium for a televised Friday night game, only to leave deservedly beaten by a home side that had been in horrific form up to then, Warnock has been there front and centre – the natural target for any praise and headlines (and flak!) heading City’s way.

Read or listen to almost any of the stuff in the media about our season over the past few days and there will be Neil Warnock’s face looking back at you or his voice regaling you – there have been stories centred around Neil Etheridge’s struggle to stay in the game after his release by Fulham as he told it in his post game press conference on Sunday, but, that apart, it’s nearly all been about our manager.

You don’t stay in the game as a manager as long as Warnock has if you are not a shrewd cookie and, by making himself the issue so often, he has shielded his players from the publicity glare and the pressure which goes with it as the realisation that the “rash” that had infected the upper reaches of the Championship was not going to quietly go away.

Post match discussions more and more featured criticism of decisions by officials, occasionally opposition managers, teams and players, but, never ever, his own side – that might come a little later, but straight after the match there was always praise or a “I thought we did pretty well actually”, no matter how disappointing the performance and/or result.

Strange therefore, that as soon as I switched the radio on after getting into my car on Sunday, the discussion on Radio Wales in the post game phone in was about the possibility of Neil Warnock stepping aside this summer.

Now, there was a time when that notion would not have been a far fetched one. Warnock often talked of how he wasn’t a great fan of the Premier League and the attitudes he found in it in some Board rooms and dressing rooms. No, our manager preferred the muck and nettles of the Championship – an environment that it seemed clear he felt was a far more honest one for all sorts of reasons.

So it was, that I heard someone proposing, I think seriously, that Chris Coleman should now be appointed City manager!

Listening a little longer, I learned that the daft suggestion was in response to the opinions being voiced by Nathan Blake and Kevin Ratcliffe that City would need a different tactical approach in the Premier League, with Blakey very keen on the idea of bringing in a coach, hopefully one with widespread Premier League and continental experience, to oversee training.

On Wednesday’s Blakey’s Boot Room podcast he developed his theme and, by the end, I found myself agreeing with some of what he said. We need to have a plan B and plan C essentially, because the cuter teams we will be facing come August will be able to counteract what were our strengths in the Championship and we also need someone who could make us more precise in the way we went about our preferred mode of play, while also developing the tactical flexibility which will, almost certainly, be required for us to survive at the higher level.

However, although I have become more sympathetic towards Blakey’s point of view, is there really any chance of, firstly, Neil Warnock stepping aside over the course of the close season or, second, agreeing to the hiring of the sort of coach being suggested by our former player?

With Warnock having signed  a new contract which covers next season and him talking about now fancying another crack at the Premier League, the answer to the first question would seem to be a comprehensive no. Of course there were those (myself being one of them I suspect!) who were saying eighteen months ago that a relationship between such combustible characters as Neil Warnock and Vincent Tan was one that was doomed to failure, so the possibility of a falling out which leads to our manager leaving cannot be completely discounted, but there has been no public sign of such an event being on the cards whatsoever so far.

As for the second question, I’m going to play amateur psychologist here for a while and make a few observations about our manager. One of the good things about Neil Warnock compared to most other managers is that he’ll often answer questions honestly – yes, he’s there talking about “going all around the houses” today when he wants to avoid answering a question in media interviews and saying that football managers, like politicians, often talk a load of bull, but he is a more interesting interview than most in his profession because he is blunt and is prepared, to borrow the phrase he used to describe what his team would, hopefully, do next season, to ruffle a few feathers.

From the start, Neil Warnock was honest about his reasons for coming to Cardiff, and, by implication, why he resisted Rotherham’s overtures after their escape from what looked like an inevitable relegation after his time there as a caretaker boss – he wanted that record eighth promotion.

Similarly, he has talked about one of his motivations for staying in management in his seventieth year, was to prove Chairmen and directors who have either sacked him or chosen others before him wrong.

I also mentioned recently that he says that “building for the future” is not really an option at his age, so, you put it all together and our manager is, essentially, in the game for himself – most managers are I daresay, but they don’t tend to be as open about it as ours is.

Mr Warnock, correctly in my view, also talked of what we could expect from the national press next season. First time around in the Premier League, our “Bond villain” owner was fair game to the press and became, alternatively, a figure of fun or a hard nosed dictator prepared to ride roughshod over a club’s traditions – either way, factor in the all too public destruction of our owner’s partnership with the manager who had got us the promotion people had been waiting more than half a century for, and you have a club that got a very negative press back in 13/14.

With Mr Tan having taken a back seat in recent years, it may be that he will receive an easier ride of it this time, especially when you consider that we now have a highly experienced manager who has not been averse to naming a few hacks in the national media who have made a habit of writing negative stories about him.

On that subject, Russell Kempson was a football writer at the Times for sixteen years. These days he writes on Reading games for the Press Association and does a weekly column for something called Get Reading. So, no connection with Cardiff City you would have thought, yet in the last six months, Kempson has devoted the following columns to our manager;-

As Reading have shown with Stam, Cardiff should be wary with new Warnock deal.

Why Warnock thoroughly deserves a touchline ban

Fiery Warnock and Holloway lead the way for Championship touchline antics but another manager is threatening to join them

Why Neil Warnock should call it a day once and for all after ugly Cardiff display against Manchester City 

Warnock’s conspiracy theory for Derby County v Cardiff City game was a joke

Now, perhaps in the dim and distant past, Neil Warnock did something to Mr Kempson to provoke such stalker like behaviour, but, come on! Do the people of Reading really want to be reading about the manager of a club about one hundred and thirty miles away every six weeks or so?

The point here is imagine if Mr Kempson was still writing for the Times, the whole country would doubtless be reading completely one eyed stuff about our manager throughout next season and I cannot help but feel that there will be other journalists about who will ensure that there will be plenty of anti Warnock/anti Cardiff stories in the national press during 18/19.

Put all of that together with his prickly relationship with match officials and other managers he has had run ins with and you begin to see that there are going to be plenty of people around that our manager will want to prove wrong next season.

This brings me on to the “Warnock Way”, whatever that is. Our manager tells that funny story about when he was being interviewed at Norwich and that term came up in conversation about how the club’s fans would react to a team playing the Warnock way, to which the answer came “you mean winning?”.

Good, typical Warnock knockabout stuff there, but there’s also a serious edge to it and, I would suggest, a bit of resentment about the way his teams are perceived as going about their business.

So, to conclude my cod psycho analysis of our manager, I say that, first, he is going to want to prove a lot of people wrong next season. Second, he will want to do it by shattering the widespread belief that Neil Warnock is a very good Championship manager, but he cannot cut it in the top flight -his Notts County team were relegated from the old First Division in 1993, as well as the controversial relegation of his Sheffield United team in 2007 and sackings at QPR and Crystal Palace. Furthermore, he will set out to prove himself at the higher level by playing in what is called the “Warnock Way”.

I might be proved wrong and Nathan Blake proved right as we appoint a foreign coach with the intention of getting us to play differently to how we did over the last nine months, but it’s my opinion that the Neil Warnock psyche makes this very unlikely – like many managers, he has his preferred partners and I’m not aware of him ever working with the sort of coach Nathan Blake is, seemingly, talking about.

To conclude, I’d like to include a link to a good article which appeared on the Wales Online website yesterday which suggests, along with this recent piece where Wales’ Osian Roberts complements our defensive set up in our win at Middlesbrough, that the “Warnock Way” is not as straightforward as some, like me, have thought it was.

Certainly, our calamity at Derby apart, our defensive record over the season suggests that the tactical approach highlighted in those two pieces was a success. On the other hand, in my opinion, the attacking intention as described in the Wales Online piece became less and less frequent after a very encouraging start and the long high ball to an isolated striker who was not good at heading the ball, when Zohore was playing at least, gradually took over. It does show however, that it is wrong to write our manager and his coaching staff off as just being long ball dinosaurs.

I appreciate and agree with the argument which says we need to be better at playing the sort of game we have been doing and also that we will need to find a bit of sophistication and subtlety to turn to if we are struggling with the bludgeoning approach. However, essentially, although I’m not a great fan of the Warnock Way as I understand it, hasn’t he earned the right to give it a try at the highest level if he wants to?

Neil Warnock has got the record he craved at an age where he probably thought he would be seeing out his days working on his farm in Cornwall, who is to say that he won’t be able to prove his critics wrong in his latest encounter with the Premier League as well?

 

 

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8 Responses to Brilliant in the Championship, but how will Neil Warnock try to transform his Premier League fortunes?

  1. Jeff Blight says:

    Cheers again Paul for another thought provoking piece.

    I think we can all agree that the gaffer has earned the right to manage the team in the premiership in a way that he wants to. It would be nice to witness free flowing football with the ball played to feet but again we all realise that he is not going to change his style of play.

    Watching his recent interviews I was encouraged by his comment that he was going to tell our owner how to run the club and that he wouldn’t be throwing money at the premiership. The last thing we need is to repeat the mistakes of Mackay and Solkskjaer.

    My only concern regarding acquisitions is although his record with free transfers and out of contract players is outstanding, when it comes to buying players for reasonable fees he has struggled during his time here. I would be surprised if Tomlin, Bogle and Madine are in our squad of 25 for the new season.

    On the subject of new acquisitions I hope we go the younger up and coming route rather than the high earning one season mercenaries. Players like Pearson at Preston, Woods and Sawyers at Brentford and even a cheeky bid for Hugill who isn’t playing at West Ham.

    It’s going to be an interesting season ahead.

  2. Richard Holt says:

    Thanks for a lot of interesting thoughts Paul. Earlier in the season when promotion was just a hopeful possibility I remember discussing with a fellow fan what we thought might happen regarding Warnock if we did actually manage to go up. We came quickly to the conclusion that Warnock would leave (or maybe move ‘upstairs’) with his work, indeed life’s work complete and ending on the best possible high for him, while at the same time leaving the club free to appoint a new young manager with modern ideas who could get us playing in a style more in keeping with the Premier league. When I saw the same fan before Sunday’s game we had the same discussion but both came to very different conclusions. In fact, the closer we got to promotion the less I held my erstwhile view.
    Firstly, it became increasingly obvious that Warnock himself had no wish to stand down irrespective of how the season ended and no one could possibly deny him the right to make his own decision on that if, as has turned out, we have been successful.
    Secondly, I don’t think the team-spirit and determination which Warnock has engendered in the squad and has been such a vital factor in getting us over the line, could have been developed if there was any slight suspicion among the nucleus of the team that this was a one-season project which would end with everyone moving their separate ways come the end of the season.
    Thirdly is cost. To bring in a new manager/coach of the calibre needed could be very expensive while to bring in a substantial number of players capable of playing a different passing style at Premier League level would probably be catastrophically costly as I doubt there are that many players in our current squad who could make that transition
    I’ve noticed that Burnley are being held as the template as to what we should aspire to and even this week Warnock has been pointing out that they went up and were then relegated before coming back up stronger. I wonder whether this a reminder to Vincent Tan as well as fans of the kind of path we need to follow. I do suspect that next season will be Neil Warnock’s last wherever we finish but one would hope that the club are already musing on possible successors who could build on and evolve from what he has achieved rather than someone with an ‘all change let’s start again approach’ of the sort that proved so disastrous under Solskaer.
    As to which league we’ll be in at the end of next season. Maybe it’s the afterglow of promotion but currently I would put our chances of survival at at least 50/50. That may not seem over-optimistic but that’s a hell of a lot better than how I rated our chances for most of the last time we were in the Premier League.

  3. BJA says:

    Good morning Paul, and Jeff and Richard.
    Almost one week on from a very memorable occasion, and three months away from the new season, and all I seem to be thinking of is – what next.
    As you have rightly stated, NW and his cohorts will want to have another crack at the Premier League and they surely have deserved that opportunity. His personal record of eight promotions having been secured, he will want to mix it with the “big boys”, and I relish the prospect of forthcoming encounters with the peacock that is Mourinho, the brains of Guardiola, the style of Pochettino’s Spurs and others. And as I believe he has stated, if it doesn’t work out, he’ll leave.
    But I hope he doesn’t, for he has engendered a team spirit in our current bunch of Bluebirds that is as brilliant as it has ever been, and that has been a major reason for this season’s success. Obviously, he can’t go on forever ( witness Arsene’s retirement ), and the time will come when we will need to think of his successor, but not yet. Whatever happens next season, as supporters we can rejoice in a most unexpected triumph and enjoy our appearance in the world’s most popular league once more, and hopefully for more than one term.
    If I have a concern, it relates to who will be these six to eight players that we supposedly need to strengthen our team, and what departures will take place. Already this week, we have been associated with midfielders MacArthur and Windass, Newcastle’s sixth goalkeeper and a German striker who looks quite useful on YouTube. Last year, NW was quick off the mark in acquisitions, but in the main they were free agents ( apart from Tomlin ). So it will be a case of watch this space – and the trouble is – I do!! I seem obsessed with catching any news of potential changes to our personnel. I am sure I’m not alone.
    Paul, as always, thanks for your reasoned articles. Last night I caught the end of the Blues’ triumph in Spain. What a wonderful few days to be a Cardiffian.” SEMPER SERSUM”.

  4. BJA says:

    Paul – Further to my last note, I gather we are now also supposed to be interested in Rondon from WBA and Gray of Watford. Crikey, not sure Mr Tan will want to spend all this cash which we haven’t earned yet. Time for a lie down!!!

  5. The other Bob Wilson says:

    Thank you all for your replies, Jeff I agree with you about our signings so far under Neil Warnock – the better ones have been free transfers really haven’t they. Also, I’ve heard him say a few times that he is rubbish, or not very good at least, at signing strikers – so far, his record in that department isn’t that great at Cardiff (Danny Ward was doing okay, but I’m not sure we’ll be seeing much of him or Gary Madine in the Premier League.
    As for the type of players we are looking at, I always think that a promoted manager would not go far wrong if he signed the best four or five players he saw in the Championship as opposed to Premier League players from clubs in the lower half of the table. At the moment though, we are going down the Premier League route if the rumours we’ve seen are correct – the Championship players wouldn’t come cheap, but I reckon they wouldn’t cost as much as the likes of Gray, McArthur, Rondon etc.
    Richard, I think Neil Warnock is in credit to a large degree with the likes of Messrs Dalman, Choo and Tan and so I’d say there wouldn’t be a rush o sack him even if we made an absolutely awful start to next season, but even so, I would’t put the chances of us still having Neil Warnock in charge come Christmas time as better, say, two in three – like you, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him leave this time next year if he, and City, come through the season without being relegated.
    BJA, I think the days of clubs spending £10 million at most on a player following promotion to the Premier League may be over – I’d say prices have doubled, at least, since when we last played at this level. Therefore, I can see us spending around the same amount as we did in 2013 even if we do have a more conservative outlook and level of ambition this time. For example, I’ve seen the fee Watford paid for Andre Gray as being £18.5 million, I know he’s not done great at Vicarage Road, but they’re going to want all or most of their money back – Gray would be quite a big signing, but I wouldn’t class him in the Caulker and Medel category from five years ago, but I reckon we’d have to pay about £5 million more more for him than we did for Medel.

  6. David Lloyd says:

    Only one side won fewer than 10 games in the premier league season this year without going into the final two games as relegation threatened. 10 wins should be the aim (supplemented by a few hard earned draws) to stay up next year. This might mean going 4 games without a win again, it might mean winning only one or two games at the start of the season as Brighton did this year. Can Warnock produce a sqaud that can stay together to keep picking up wins having gone a period of time without a win? Absolutely. Can Warnock produce a squad that wins 10 games in the premier league? That’s the challenge this summer, and you’re right to suggest we’ll need more variety going forward than we had this year.

  7. Russell Roberts says:

    Sorry for the late read and reply I think its a simple one ,hes old skool, however that old skool ,outperformed some good sides and coaches one of which in London are the bext big thing tactically, unfortunately its a sum of all things that get you up over a 46 game season, its not always about how technically or tactically brilliant you are.

    Next year will be tough but hey Mr Blake and anti Cardiff Ratcliffe, its simple for us , build on our back four capabilities to not concede, build your base from that , look to create better in midfield, brake at pace when you can , rough up a few Premeirship prima donor’s , win ugly , keep togther the established undoubted teams ethos as best we can .

    Warnock mentioned goals , and hinted that qualifying for Europe would be great, could we get a Europa spot?? Yeh why not, lets dream,we have too, Warnock is not done yet ,and cleverer than most give him credit for.

  8. Dai Woosnam says:

    Congrats, Paul on the amazing sleuth like job you did on exposing the Russell Kempson obsession with Neil Warnock. Chapeau bas, to you.
    And hats off to Jeff Blight too…he well knows the incontrovertible fact that Jordan Hugill is a proper centre forward of the Nathaniel Lofthouse kind.

    I had a dream last night. Make of it what you will…
    Next season, Mozza breaks Salah’s EPL scoring record as Cardiff’s outstanding centre forward. And guess who proves to be our outstanding centre half…?
    Why…none other than …
    …Gary Madine…!!

    Where is my old copy of Sigmund Freud’s THE INTERPRETATION OF DREAMS, when I want it…?

    Will sign off now, delighted that Derby have just had their comeuppance for cheating. The last team to fail to fulfil a fixture – Middlesbrough – had 3 points deducted and were relegated from the EPL as a result.
    Derby should have lost three points too…and seeing as they only finished two points above Preston, it should have been PNE playing at The Cottage yesterday.

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