For years and years the accepted wisdom was that fifty points would ensure safety in a forty six match season. You’d get anomalies like when Peterborough went down with fifty three points I think it was in our title winning campaign and Blackburn got to fifty one in 16/17 but couldn’t beat the drop, you’d be very unlucky if you get to the half century and found yourself in the third tier though.
Recent seasons have seen the struggling sides getting less points and since that Blackburn relegation, the last four completed seasons have probably seen that target figure to avoid the drop lessened by a couple of points by those within the game.
That trend will continue this year, but, of course, Derby’s massive points deduction has rather invalidated that line of thinking – the team we end the season against next weekend would be on fifty five points well clear off the drop were it not for the financial misdemeanours committed by those running the club.
We shouldn’t forget Reading’s six point deduction either – they are one of only four clubs we’re certain to finish above at the moment, but they would have been going into today’s matches thinking they could overhaul us and Birmingham were it not for the sanction imposed on them.
It’s been a common refrain that City would be going down were it not for what happened to Derby and Reading, but by finally ending their latest long run of consecutive defeats by signing off at Cardiff City Stadium with a 1-1 draw with Birmingham, City reached the fifty point figure that relegation threatened sides aimed for – they would still not be completely safe tonight in a Championship without points deductions, but they would go to Derby knowing that it would need a combination of a very heavy defeat for them and a big win by Birmingham and a huge one by Reading to relegate them.
What is beyond doubt is that the atmosphere and general feeling around today’s match would have been far more fraught than what we saw this afternoon if Derby and Reading had not been docked points. To be fair, the match was more competitive than your typical end of season fare between sides that had no chance of going up or down (as evidenced by six bookings, four of them to City players).
So, City we’re probably just about good enough to stay up anyway, but, for long periods this afternoon, it looked like they were on their way to yet another of those 1-0 home losses that have plagued us this season and, were it not for us being awarded our first penalty of the season on our forty fifth match, I think we would have done so.
In saying that, I think it would have been an injustice if we had lost because we put Birmingham under an awful lot of pressure in the second half, but it does occur to me that, like the drunk who says they’ll just go on one more binge before they go on the wagon for the rest of their days, we had to revert to the style of play we’re supposed to be dispensing with to get our point.
There were a barrage of corners, free kicks and Vaulks long throws for Birmingham to defend in the second half and, largely, they did with not many alarms because, without those big defenders that people like me say can’t play out from the back, we’re nowhere near the dead ball threat that we were.
To their credit, City really did try to win the game once they levelled with eight minutes left, but it’s hard to see how Steve Morison arrived at his opinion that we dominated the game from start to finish…
Our manager continued to “match up” (it would be nice to see us be positive and have a sod what they’re doing attitude just once) with our opponents by reverting to a back three, while there was a second league start for Eli King in midfield alongside Ryan Wintle and Tommy Doyle, but it was only after that trio had been replaced that City really came into the game.
Before then, Perry Ng from left wing back had been City’s likeliest scorer in yet another tepid first half showing as he twice forced Neil Etheridge into saves and the ex City man was also called into action to block Cody Drameh’s effort.
Birmingham we’re the more dangerous side though as Jermaine Bela put them ahead with a good finish after they became the latest side to catch us on the break from an attacking dead ball situation – in doing so, they also exploited how poor our delivery has been from this source in recent matches..
The introduction of Rubin Colwill (I just don’t get our manager’s attitude towards him in these games which surely should be used for giving players like him the sort of starting opportunities he didn’t get enough of earlier in the season) and Will Vaulks for Wintle and King improved things somewhat with the latter having one of his best games of the season for me, but, after Birmingham had twice gone very close to doubling their lead, it was the replacement of Doyle by Max Watters that was the catalyst for the pressure being upped.
It was Watters who won the penalty as he ran on to a Ng pass and got a touch on the ball just before Etheridge brought him down. It was a clear penalty and Vaulks emphatically put away the spot kick in impressive style with a nerveless finish.
There were lots of crosses coming in after that, but, as has been the case since Ryan Giles’ loan spell ended, there was a lack of real quality to most of them, but at least City had done enough not to add a five match losing run to the eight game one that they’d put us through in the autumn and, in this so poor season, you have to be grateful for crumbs of comfort like that.
Before that, there was a 2-1 away win for the under18s at QPR thanks to goals from Japhet Mpadi and a Morgan Wigley penalty. There’s just one other game to report on, a 1-1 draw for Champions Treherbert Boys and Girls Club at AFC Butetown in the Highadmit South Wales Alliance Division Two.
Can anyone believe this is still the same season that saw Vaulks find Giles who crossed for Kieffer to score against Blackpool? That feels like years ago already but one player clearly remembered that day in the sun and wanted to recreate it.
Nelson and Denham had another good game though Denham was another right-footed player as LCB losing his footing and putting us in trouble after McGuinness did earlier in season – it really is a more specialist position than we’ve treated it as.
Despite being targeted, NG has been a big part of good moments for us since Morison arrived and the only one chasing back to help Phillips for their goal. There was a point in 2nd half where NG, Denham, Nelson and Vaulks calmly moved the ball firstly backwards out of danger and then up the field which showed exactly what Morison wants going forward even if some of our fans are allergic to the idea. We need McGuinness, could have easily been a red, back confident and capable of doing the same on other side of defence to more obviously see this an an improvement.
King looks like he’s got the tools but one who is still very much learning the game so really a pity he only had 45 mins and who was this Vaulks person who put in such a strong performance?
However, where were the defenders and midfield for the goal we conceded? That one mistake almost cost us and made it much more difficult to see the positives from yesterday so Bowyer can justifiably say they could have come away with something more.
Harris has shown many tools but this year he’s either been good at finishing moves or good in the build-up but never both which is a concern for how many minutes he’s had in past two years. His minutes are going to shrink dramatically next year but I think he was as bright, especially in first half, as Watters was coming off the bench who performed well off the bench and got a 7/10 in local press.
Think we need to remember that Colwill hasn’t had a full pre-season at senior level with surprise Euros trip last year so it’s understable that he’s been so inconsistent and struggles to make himself effective for 90 mins, but it’s another short pre-season going into next year too.
Drameh’s final ball needs work but otherwise showed what we need our wingbacks to do, Doyle was busy and determined to go out on a high but he does highlight how neglected our academy has been over past decade because he knows what to do on the pitch whereas a few of our youngsters and just starting to work it out.
Hugill was used more in the build-up which shows progression in our tactics rather than just being a target man.
Biggest credit of all goes to the Canton who had a right go in first half when it all felt a bit pre-season and lead us into last 20 minutes when Cardiff realised no one wanted to leave the CCS this year on a 1-0 defeat. One more game to go before a huuge summer.
Good afternoon Paul – My usual thanks for your reporting and sensible observations. For this observer, this season cannot end quickly enough and Saturday’s efforts from our men in blue had me frustrated once again as they failed to overcome a team below us in the league. No goal from open play for the fourth game in a row and for all of the improvement that there has been since the change of Manager a few months ago, not enough chances are being created for our strike force in whatsoever combination is selected. That situation just has to be addressed.
I am intrigued by Steve Morison’s statements on his proposed recruitments in the coming months and that contact has been made with players that he wants through the door. He wants to do his business early so it is said and good luck with that. But so does every other club and I shudder to think just how many quality performers will be attracted to the CCS when it is common knowledge that we have little money.
Of the current home grown talent that appeared for the team on Saturday, only Colwill is worth a starting slot, and he needs to sharpen up on performances. My opinion on Harris has not changed, for he brings very little to the team other than pace. His control of the ball is awful and when an opportunity arrives at a shot on goal, he rarely finds the target with any meaningful effort. Young Denham who has shown promise in a central defensive position was caught out too many times as a left sided defender as a Birmingham attacker passed him with ease, and I felt that an even younger King was not sure of his duties and it was no surprise when he was substituted at half-time.
I suspect that all of our loanees will return to their Clubs, and it will be remarkable if we are able to recruit their services again for next season. Personally, I would be happy if Drameh, Doyle and Hugill returned, but that really is wishful thinking.
I understand that ten of our current squad are out of contract, and if reports are correct, none will be retained, or certainly not on present wages. So only Vaulks of that number appeared on Saturday and he is one that I hope will be offered terms that he feels acceptable for he has some energy and certainly knows how to take a penalty. Maybe only an impact player, but his arrival certainly pepped up affairs second-half.
An indication of just what the City supporters thought of their team was demonstrated at the players’ walk around the pitch post match – very few remained. I think they deserved better than that even if the season has been poor. Those that stayed did give them generous applause and at that moment I decided that I will renew my season ticket regardless of the many disappointments these past nine months. They have been my team for over seventy years, and winter would not be the same without them for they are my go to drug.
And finally Paul, renewed thanks for your thousands of words these past nine months – just one match to go. Enjoy the summer.
Thanks both for the replies. As I said in my piece, I thought we resorted to type a bit to get our point on Saturday, but I’d agree that in the past few games, there has been far less “hoofball” played by City and, although Denham struggled a bit at times defensively (DJ makes a good point about playing right footers on the left of a back three) and McGuinness has not finished the season too well, you’d like to think that they are young and enough and good enough on the ball to become the all rounders defensively that we’ve not really had since Bruno left. As for the goal we conceded, the midfield and defence were caught out, but it all stemmed from another poor dead ball delivery from Doyle who arrived at the club with a big reputation when it came to this part of the game, but, despite being a good signing overall, has completely failed to live up to that billing in my view.
BJA, I think a lot of Championship clubs are going to be in the same boat as us this summer and, because of this, there are going to be an awful lot of out of contract players about. I heard a podcast or radio discussion recently where there was agreement among those involved that there is evidence of a new sense of realism among players due to be released who are likely to end up at clubs in the Football League when it comes to wage demands – there’s still be the ones at the top of the tree so to speak who will be able to ask for top dollar, but, below that, there’s likely to be a feeling that they are happy to have found a club even if they’re not earning as much as they once were.
Regarding the post match walk around the pitch, I can definitely remember times when it would have been a much more “edgy” experience for any squad which had produced a set of results like this one has and the awards night held a few hours after the game told you so much about what sort of season it was. Having had a few days to think about it now, I’m still none the wiser as to who I’d have voted for as Player of the season because I don’t think there was anyone who consistently showed form worthy of the award over the past nine months and the selection of players on loan, who were not here for a half of the season, tells it’s own story.