Last week I commented that the end of June/early July period was usually a busy one when it came to transfers, well with Cardiff City having added two more players to their squad yesterday, this is, surely, a time to say “I told you so”.
I won’t be doing that for a couple of reasons however. First, I’ve always believed that people tend to notice when you’re right about something, so there’s no need to ram it down their throats with proclamations to that effect – if you are right often enough, you will earn people’s respect anyway. Second, and more important, I wasn’t really right – I was referring to Bosman free transfers as players let their contracts run down, the two newcomers were far from being those sort of signings.
My comment was relevant more for us avoiding a Bosman free transfer departure with the very welcome news that the week began with Junior Hoilett committing himself to the club by signing a new deal, with the bonus being that this one was for three years, rather than the twelve month ones he had penned with us up to now.
It’s been said by some that Hoilett agreeing to remain at Cardiff is the best signing we’ve made so far and I can see where those responsible for that opinion are coming from. The Canadian international is one of what is a pretty small number of players at the club with previous experience of the Premier League and, certainly during his time as one of the division’s bright young things at Blackburn, he got by pretty well at that level.
A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then for Hoilett though as his career stalled at QPR and I’d say the perception grew that he was someone who was wasting a level of ability that should have ensured that all of his football was played in the top flight.
However, by largely maintaining a standard which marked him out as our most consistent and influential attacking player over the course of a season which began with him playing a series of competitive internationals for his country, I would argue that Hoilett is coming off his best campaign in six or seven years.
If he is able to maintain the standards he set for himself in 17/18, then I’m confident that Junior Hoilett will be one of our players who will be able to cope with the step up in standards next season – it’s a relief that such an important player has decided to stay at Cardiff.
Of course, there is still every chance that one first teamer from last season will not follow Hoilett’s lead and decide to turn down the contract offer that is on the table from the club in the next few days.
As things stand, our longest serving first team player, Aron Gunnarsson, will cease to be a Cardiff City player at midnight tomorrow when his contract with the club runs out. I had hoped that Iceland’s elimination from the World Cup would quickly be followed by an announcement that Gunnar was staying at City, but it’s not come yet and I can’t help wondering if it ever is going to now.
Of course, even if the contract remains unsigned on 1 July, it doesn’t mean that Gunnar has definitely left the club. There have been precedents whereby an out of contract player remains at his club by agreeing to weekly deals while he considers his options and, anyway, I suppose that the lack of an announcement that the Iceland captain will be leaving Cardiff could be taken as an indication that, even at this very late stage, talks are continuing between the two parties.
I’ll return to Aron Gunnarsson and our central midfield later, but I mentioned two new players at the start and so it’s about time I said something about them.
Around the time Junior Hoilett was turning out for Blackburn Rovers, there were very few of my Cardiff City teams on Football Manager which didn’t feature Alex Smithies in goal. Now, my liking for this keeper, who was with Huddersfield at the time, was solely based on a set of figures which marked him out as just about the best young, affordable, goalkeeper in the game, but I think most of those who catch the Football Manager bug make a habit of following the fortunes of their favourites in the game in real life and that’s what I’ve done with Smithies.
If his career hasn’t quite panned out as successfully as the Huddersfield Football Manager researcher of the time thought it might, then I think it’s fair to say that Smithies has proved himself to be one of the second tier’s best keepers year in and year out and, if the theory about goalkeepers peaking later than outfield players is correct, it can be said that his best days are still in front of him.
Although Sam Johnstone of Villa, who was largely responsible for the margin of defeat for his Villa side not being double what it turned out to be, was my pick as the best visiting keeper to be seen at Cardiff City Stadium last season, I would also say that the two best displays came in our first three matches there as Johnstone’s heroics were followed two games later by a fine performance from Smithies as his QPR team were beaten 2-1.
An unfortunate moment for Alex Smithies on his last visit to Cardiff City Stadium as his kick rebounds off Junior Hoilett and into the net for an equaliser in a match we eventually won 2-1. Smithies was played into trouble though by mistakes from those in front of him and his overall performance on the day only added to my feeling that he has always been one of the best around at Championship level.
You only have to read what the QPR fans are saying about Smithies to see how highly rated he was by them – the best keeper the club has had since David Seaman left in 1990 is a compliment I’ve seen paid to Smithies on more than one occasion.
If the reports are to be believed, Smithies, who has signed a deal until 2022, is costing us 3 million pounds with another half a million on top of that if we avoid relegation next season and I think it’s fair to say that the fans at his former club think we are getting him on the cheap.
By contrast, Bristol City supporters, rather like Norwich fans did a few weeks ago when we signed Josh Murphy, seem to be saying that they have got a good price for their top scorer, Bobby Reid, who joins us on another four year contract for a fee reported to be 9 million pounds with the potential to rise to 10 million.
What cannot be denied about Reid, who I can remember seeing play for Bristol City’s Under 18 and Development sides on a few occasions in the last seven or eight years, is that he is coming off the season of his life so far as he gained the approval of his fellow professionals to the extent that he was named in the PFA Championship team of the season for 2017/18 – he was also chosen for the EFL Championship team of the year as chosen bv the division’s managers.
Reid owes his place among such illustrious company to the twenty one goals he scored in all competitions last season, but it does need to be said that this figure is almost double the amount he managed beforehand in a senior career that started in 2011.
The suspicion is then that we may have signed someone who could turn out to be a one season wonder, but, to be fair to Reid, he was not really the same player prior to 17/18 because he was used by the wurzels in a deeper role than the one which bought him so much success last season.
Indeed, I can remember thinking back in August as he began the season with six goals in his first six matches, that Reid was the reason Bristol City were willing to let us sign Lee Tomlin – from a distance, it didn’t half look as if Reid had been handed the role that used to be Tomlin’s.
Besides the obvious conclusion that Reid offers more goals than Tomlin based on the evidence so far, I’d say that while our new man is less likely to leave fans drooling with the very occasional flash of sheer skill, he will produce far more in terms of work rate than Tomlin and stamina does not seem to be an issue with him.
Reid is one of those signings which came very much as a bolt from the blue with us never having been linked to him until the report on Wednesday that he was having a medical with us. Whether this is because Reid only became a target for us in the last few days after we had not been able to close out a deal for another player is not known, but what is clear is that he fits precisely into the template of player we have brought in so far.
Apparently, new signing Bobby Reid being pictured doing the Ayatollah has not gone down too well with some Bristol City fans – the hack from Bristol Live I saw giving his thoughts on the deal made reference to it, but he also said that he believes Reid has it in him to play for England.*
Back in the quiet days of May when nothing was happening on the transfer front, there was a great deal of speculation as to how we would go about our business this summer. There were plenty who felt that, having got our fingers badly burned in 2013, we would be be very cautious in our spending this time around. Indeed, the local media were reporting that we would be relying mainly on loans and Bosmans because our budget was only 20 million pounds as we targeted players with Premier League experience.
Now, I always found the notion that we would be bringing in proven Premier League performers on a budget that was so small by the standards of “the best league in the world” to be totally implausible – as I mentioned on here before, the only way that could happen was if we were chasing the likes of Phil Jagielka, Peter Crouch and Gareth Barry (i.e. the over 35s market).
Far more sensible for me was to target players from the Championship who were hungry to be given a chance at the higher level. However, even this strategy would be a risky one because the truth is that most of Reid’s team mates in those two select elevens I linked to earlier would be out of our price range if the plan was not to repeat the mistakes of 2013/14.
You only have to look at a situation whereby Nottingham Forest are paying 13 million pounds for players this summer and Leeds are being linked with 12 million rated performers to get an idea of the sort of market we are operating in these days. These are two clubs who, admittedly, get bigger gates than us, but their days of receiving parachute payments are well behind them (that’s if they ever got them in the first place!) and yet they are looking to spend more, as Championship teams, on one player than we have ever done.
Yet, despite this, if the reported fees for the four transactions we’ve carried out so far are correct, we have potentially paid just short of 30 million pounds in transfer fees alone this summer – just imagine what that figure would be if we had signed four players, all under the age of thirty, of proven Premier League quality or a quartet who could be called the best the Championship had to offer!
I don’t think even Josh Murphy, Greg Cunningham, Alex Smithies and Bobby Reid would describe themselves as the best the Championship had to offer if they were being honest with themselves, but I would argue that they are among the best that league had to offer this summer for a club looking to spend at the sort of levels we are.
I may be proved totally wrong here of course, but, curiously, I feel the two cheapest buys (Cunningham and Smithies) are the ones out of the four who are most likely to succeed. In saying that, I recognise that the market for defensive players is a cheaper one than for attackers, but Reid and Murphy carry that element of risk for me.
However, realistically, if we are going to look at improving attacking options on our sort of budget, Reid and Murphy are the sort of players we have to go for – if we are talking about permanent signings anyway.
As someone who urged a middle way (i.e. something like the sort of spending seen from Huddersfield last summer) between the two extremes of Bosmans/loans and 2013 type expenditure, I think City have bought pretty shrewdly so far – it may not be enough to keep us up, but, if it isn’t, we are bringing in players who would do well in the Championship or would have a good resale value if we were forced to sell them.
With Neil Warnock saying he is happy with the defenders he has to choose from and the versatile Reid to cover a lot of the forward positions, it now seems to me that the area crying out for reinforcing most is central midfield. Even if Aron Gunnarsson signs that new contract and, as reported this week, Liverpool are agreeable to letting Marko Grujic come here again on a season long loan, I still think we could do with one more player in there.
It’s frequently said that we need a playmaker in central midfield, I agree with that, but if you are thinking in terms of a Whittingham type “quarterback” spraying defence splitting passes here, there and everywhere, I’d suggest you don’t know our manager.
After all, we are talking about someone who uses the term “bread and butter players” as a compliment when talking about central midfielders – Neil Warnock is a “nowt fancy” manager and this seems to apply particularly when it comes to the middle of the park, can you name a midfield playmaker, in the classical sense of the term, who has featured in one of his successful sides?
No, if we are looking for another central midfielder, I would suggest that, broadly speaking, they will be similar to what we have already, but, hopefully, a little better.
Finally, I wondered last week whether the friendly at Greenock Morton on 31 July would involve the first team or a Development side, well the news earlier in the week that we will be playing at Hereford United on the same night surely confirms that it will be the former rather than the latter that will be turning out in Scotland.
Another pleasing week on the acquisition front Paul and I admit to being excited by our purchases to date as they add to an already quick forward line and competition in defence, both aspects we badly lacked when we were last promoted.
I agree that midfield in now the priority and that we are more likely to acquire a Shaun Derry type than an Adel Taarabt. Right back also concerns me, I am hoping that Paterson (A favourite of mine) can revert to his original position as I believe Reid will be at the top of the diamond or number ten.
Role on the new season, I can’t wait, we have the pace and goals to trouble the bottom ten, have we enough to concern the top ten?
All potentially good signings so far I think. Pleased to see we’re not spending willy-nilly for poor quality like we did last time. Warnock has so far largely had a knack for spotting players who can raise their game at a higher level. Hopefully he’s done that again.
Hello Paul and others – Paul, you seem to be ahead of yourself this week as I believe most of your weekly updates occur over the week-end, but I’m not complaining, particularly with the happenings at the CCS these past few days. And there’s new kit to look forward to acquiring to-morrow if that takes one’s fancy. Personally, I think I may be too aged with a far from athletic shape to strut out with the new kit, but I have the notion that my son may be determined that I celebrate our return to the Premiership displaying our colours. Ah well….
So we have four new arrivals, and Hoilett re-signing. I am happy with Messra Murphy, Cunningham and Smithies ( class act ), and I believe Reid could add to my demeanour if he is able to replicate last season’s form. But just what position will he occupy? If I understand his playing career, he was originally an attacking mid-fielder, but Lee Johnson converted him to a striker. If NW sees him in that role, will that mean a demotion for Zahore, or will he become the second striker in support? Or perhaps revert to his previous role as an attacking mid-fielder? As he is a player with pace and energy but no great defensive qualities, it may well be he will best serve us in an advanced mid-field position.covering vast acres. Time will tell.
NW states that he is happy with the defence, but I wish I shared his confidence. If we are to play with three central defenders Cunningham, Bamba and Morrison, with Bennett out wide on the left, who will be out wide on the right? Possibly Paterson, or perhaps Peltier or Richards. If it is to be the former, he may well have to curb his attacking instincts except at set pieces. But I suppose NW clearly has in mind his preferred personnel, so I will not second guess him – I’ve been wrong too many times.
Will Gunnars re-sign, and will we persuade Grujic to return? I will be happy for both situations but really hope that our young Serbian will not be dazzled by Continental bright lights. Central midfield is the position that we must strengthen and we keep being mentioned with Besitkas’s Tolgay Arslan. From what I have seen, he really would be worth spending a further £8 – 10 million, but have we spent our full allowance already, or will we be receiving a few shillings for some departures? Paul, if you have any influence, put in a good word!!
As others have stated, last year much of our success was as a result of a brilliant team spirit. I just hope with our new arrivals, we do not upset our applecart. A busy pre-season schedule will clearly help integration with perhaps most of the desired players on NW’s wish list already here. But how I wish for Arslan.
Thanks Paul as I type I read Warnock wants another striker and indicates with that signing and Grujic,it may be done I hope not as our midfield will not be good enough, if I was the club I would have released Aron , perhaps they have in a Whittingham sort of way,offered a deal but its not enough and we don’t want to drag an inflated wage back into the Championship for another two years if we went down as I’m guessing he wants a 3 year contract.
Agree our signings are at best good quality Championship, not the best ,but young enough to develop,we shouldn’t lose thier value . They all appear workers as required by Warnock , (Please remind me why we signed Tomlin,maybe he’s the ace up the sleeve ,he has the natural quality, just need fittness and dedication )
Best signing for me is the keeper .
Need two more in midfield experinced,one of which an old head to bring calm and infulunce to a very naive team.
Thanks for your summing up of the transfer situation, up to 29th June. I so agree with you that Cunningham and Smithies look like the lads most likely to succeed…though I hope the latter is not given the first team’s squad number 1…but has to work to get selection. Etheridge should and must be in pole position.
Regarding pictures mentioned in the last thread, I have one or two in a box in the loft of selfies of me with now long forgotten players like Tommy Halliday and Dick Scott…As for the latter I was almost his sole fan …all my mates thought he was agricultural, and no loss at all to Norwich City. But I thought he was a player with huge potential, and weirdly, such was my admiration that I used to imitate his idiosyncratic walk on my newspaper round.
Strangely, although I have not looked up in the loft for at least 15 years, I believe I have a picture of Gareth Williams and John Charles on a train coming back from Portsmouth Harbour…we had just been stuffed 5-0 at Fratton Park. Jim Dickinson was making his 500th appearance for Pompey…or some other such landmark. I am too lazy to google, as it will soon be time to go up the wooden hill to Bedfordshire…and I have 5 emails to write before beddibyes…”miles to go before I sleep” as the great RF immortally wrote.
Anyway, apart from George Swindin and his team, the young Peter Corrigan was on the train as well and when I asked him what he thought of the 5-0 result, he answered “City were lucky to score nil”.
Of course, that line has now been flogged to death, but I genuinely had not heard it way back then, and thought it brilliant.
The thought also occurs now, that it was the culmination of so many City thrashings I attended… a 6-1 at Chelsea at Easter 61, a 5-1 hammering at the Hawthorns in March 62, when their left winger Clive Clark ran us ragged…and several other heavy away beatings I attended, but have managed to forget the date and exact scores.
As for that West Brom game …I came back on the train to Cardiff with the father of Alan Durban sitting next to me. What a nice man he was . And someone who was so kind and genuinely interested in what 14 year old me had to say. And was a goldmine of info for me, and my questions.
Anyway, Paul…I am Daigressing as ever. Apols.
Let me instead respond to your thoughtful report on the past week.
Here is my take on things…
There’s an overwhelming sense of deja vu, here.
Overpaying as ever.
I still cannot get over £11 million for Josh M….and now we are going to pay as much as £3 million for another Josh…Josh W. Eh? You have got to be JOSHING me…!!
Why? Well because this fellow is another Hugill in that he cost PNE £25K from Port Vale…and you tell us that Windass two years ago cost a mere £60K from Accrington Stanley…!! Gee…this is beginning to no longer seem a freakish mismanagement of transfer funds, but a profligacy that borders on recidivism. “Sir” Vincent …take note please…and put a stop on this spendthrift lunacy.
Is Robbie Reid worth a similar massive fee £9+m to Josh M…? I have to say that I hae me considerable doots. He might make a Keegan to Madine’s Toshack, but what we really need are defenders. We have not got a EPL quality centre back…though Sol fits the bill on those days when he can concentrate (and is not spraying suicidal passes across his penalty area).
Dear Sir Vincent…please listen to my plea.
One player who clearly WAS worth a big fee, was someone I suggested we buy a couple of weeks ago in these very pages. But I see that the wily old bird Tony Pulis has snapped Aiden Flint up for a fee rising to £7m. A real quality player is that lad…
And someone who Bristol City paid just £300K for from Swindon just 5 years ago.
Why is it that Cardiff City cannot have bought him, way back then? Instead of which, we bought Sean Morrison for an eye watering £4m. A player who has all the makings of a fine centre forward, but has never convinced me as a centre back. Still, Neil loves a Plymouth lad. After all he lives just down the road, and Plymouth is very much Neil’s metropolis.
And look at the money wasted on Omar Bogle. Just three years ago this month, Solihull Moors were considering two bids of £10K for him from Nuneaton and Gateshead. Then Grimsby gazumped them with a bid rumoured locally here in Grimsby to have been £20K. Cardiff then end up paying £750K…it breaks your heart…it really does.
But hey…hush my mouth. We must trust in our Great Alchemist, but at the same time pray that he does not perform financial alchemy in reverse…i.e turn real Pound coins into worthless base metal.
So let me put it in the language of fellow Yorkshireman Wilfred Pickles, a man he might just remember. To borrow and distort Wilf’s catchphrase…”DON’T give him the money Mabel”!
For ‘Mabel’ read ‘Mehmet’.
And I will leave you with this thought…
Malaysia have clearly been so impressed by a man who will be 70 by the end of the year, that they have tacitly said “continue for another quarter century”.
Why do I say that?
Well they have just reappointed a 92 year old as Prime Minister…!! And he has agreed to hand over the job in his 95th year …but has since stated that he might well choose to carry on …if asked.
YCNMIU, eh?*
So our Great Alchemist might still – God willing, and with Malaysian reverence for the wisdom of old age, permitting – be prowling the CCS touchline in 2043…!!
*=You Could Not Make It Up, (even if you tried…!!)
Right. Time to write those emails… and close down my iPad before I close my eyes down for the night and start counting zeds.
Gosh look at the clock…it is gone midnight. And I have missed Newsnight.
I wrote an earlier piece which seems to have disappeared into the ether.
The gist of it was that I was trying to be optimistic but I was having difficulty in identifying the three clubs who would finish below us at the end of the season.
Since then I have been delighted to read that NW hopes to sign a new striker on loan as the missing link in our line -up.
Even though he is now 38 years old I think that Peter Crouch is ideally suited to our style of play and would knit together our defence and attack getting the best out of players like Bobby Reid.
Absolutely spot-on Mike.
A man who can win the ball in the air. Peter is a proper footballer.
Having all these wingers, it would be a pity to waste their crossing ability.
And he could make a star out of Bobby…who I may have called “Robbie” late last night…but seeing as I am not family, I cannot get away with such a mistake.
But then, in my defence, it was late…
Jeff, I agree that it seems most likely that we will see Reid operating as a number ten behind whoever is playing centre forward, but a way of getting two strikers without leaving us short in midfield would be to go with three central defenders and wing backs in a 3-5-2 – I certainly think we will see three centrebacks at times in the new season, but two strikers? I’m not so sure, but I would expect Reid to be one of them if we did.
Ian, I’m with you about our spending – by modern day Premier League standards, and the standards of one or two Championship clubs, it’s quite modest.
BJA, as far as the kit goes, I showed both my age and general couldn’t care lessness when it comes to modern day kits when I said I couldn’t see any difference between the new one and last season’s – I’d give the “new” blue kit a five out of then, but I like what we’ve seen of the change kit, wonder what colour the shorts are?
I’d say Peltier is favourite to be our right back when we play at Bournemouth at the moment. I don’t see Paterson playing there much in a back four, but right wing back in a three centreback formation is much more likely – I’m not sure what Neil Warnock makes of Jazz Richards because he’s spent so much time out injured under his management, but my guess is that Bruno may be ahead of him in the right back pecking order.
I was going to say my influence is very limited, but it’s more a case of it being non existent! I like what I’ve read about Arslan, but the truth is I had not seen anything of him, so I’ve just Googled his name and found this;-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrqVsmq6mpk
and I’m very impressed. Just on the evidence of that video, I would say that Arslan has many of the qualities our central midfield lacked last season and I’d definitely be after him if it was my decision to make, but is this a case of our manager wanting something different – does Arslan take too many touches for our manager and is there a bit too much jam for his bread and butter tastes?
Russell, I suspect that the lack of a decision from either party says that the club have not made Gunnar the sort of offer Whitts got last year. I keep on banging on about Warnock type players and by what he says about him and the way he was so keen to keep Gunnar in the side after he returned from injury, my feeling is that he is one – I think our manager wants Gunnar to stay and so our offer is a genuine one. As for Tomlin, I’ll be surprised to see him featuring for us next season – I reckon he’ll be out on loan somewhere.
Mike. sorry, but I hope we’re not interested in Peter Crouch, three years ago yes, but not now.
Dai, you’ve produced a pair of messages there which I can find very little to agree with. The long contract extension Etheridge signed yesterday shows I think that the goalkeeping issue is far from settled and that’s the way it should be, but I can’t help thinking that, when it gets to August 11 I think it is and we take the pitch at Bournmeouth, we’ll find that it’s Smithies who is starting.
I’ve seen us lose a lot away from home, but I’ve not seen us hammered too many times – I think 4-0 at Swindon on Boxing Day 1975 may be the biggest away defeat I’ve seen, but it’s a different story at home. 2-7 against Cambridge, 1-6 Sheffield United, 0-5 Maidstone, too many 1-5s too mention, the list goes on and on!
Having watched Sean Morrison last season, I wouldn’t swap him for Aden Flint – good centrehalf he may be and very much a Warnock type player I’d guess, but I’d say it’s telling that no Premier League club took a punt on him.
Thanks Paul for your summary of the responses.
As for finding little to agree with in my contribution this time, no problem. I would not expect you to.
What is really commendable about you is the fact you allow me full rein, and allow me to air what is usually a counter view to that of most MAYAns. Long may you reign over us.
Just a couple of points. The first re Mike’s suggestion of Peter Crouch.
You say it is three years too late. Maybe.
But think of him as an impact player to be brought on in the 65th minute if things are not working.
He can certainly last 25 minutes…and he might well have the stamina to last all 90 minutes.
After all, he is still 12 years younger than a certain opponent playing for Stoke City who I saw giving Trevor Edwards a tough examination at Ninian in early 1965…and he was just past his FIFTIETH birthday that day.
I refer to the magnificent Stanley Matthews.
And my second point is re Morrison: I too recall his performances in defence last season, and do not share your optimism for his encounters with the likes of Kane, Lukaku, Firmano, etc. Up front he is great…as good a goal scorer as Flint. But defensively?
No.
Sure, he has better positional sense than our centre back pivot last time in the EPL…Steven Caulker. But that would not be difficult.
Alas he is still too prone to backpedal, and very iffy in his clearances. And his tackling lacks the timing and authority of Flint’s, when seriously examined by a proper centre forward like Hugill. (Examples? That iffy clearance that went straight to Grealish for his so-called “worldy”. And the way at Pride Park, Cameron Jerome reduced Sean’s game to something approaching ragged disarray.)
But I have real belief that the Great Alchemist will keep City up next season, and he, more than any City manager in my lifetime, can make players play well above themselves.
And he will certainly need to do it with Sean Morrison. But I, like you Paul, pray with all my heart that he does.
Oh boy oh boy…now there (see link below) was a boy it WAS worth pushing the boat out for…!!
Genuine gold standard. Not the possible “all that glistens” of the two Joshes and Bobby Reid.
And Neil a declared admirer too.
I never thought The Blades would sell him in a million years.
A massive miss for The Bluebirds.
Watch him now get the winner on the opening day.
http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11743/11422586/bournemouth-sign-david-brooks-from-sheffield-united
A few weeks ago Dai, Neil Warnock said we had been in for a player who was going to sign for Bournemouth while giving the impression that we could not match their spending power – I reckon the player concerned may well have been Brooks. In saying that, the reported fee I’ve seen for the deal is of the sort of order that we paid for Murphy or Reid, but I suppose our manager could have been talking about wages or how the deal was structured (e.g. Bournemouth may have been prepared to pay more up front than us).