For about the last seven or eight years, I’ve been bemoaning Cardiff City’s lack of possession in games. If someone undertook the considerable task of working out an average percentage possession figure for all of the clubs to have played in Premier and/or Football League in every season since, say, 2014/15, I’d surprised if there were more than five sides with a lower figure than our – in fact, I think there may well be none.
Neil Harris’ appointment in November 2019 came with talk of an intention of playing more of a possession based game and, certainly in the team’s fine post lockdown run to end the 19/20 season, possession percentages were slightly higher. Most importantly, results were largely good as well, but, if progress was being made on two fronts in June and July, it has stalled, and regressed on the results side in 20/21.
There hasn’t been a great deal of matches this season where we have had more of the possession, but there have been enough of them to give rise to the suggestion that we are a less effective team when we have more of the ball, so the notion that our opponents think that it is to their advantage to let City have plenty of the ball is not a wholly far fetched one.
Those advancing this theory were given further backing today as City slumped to their fifth defeat in six games (thereby undoing all of the good work of late November and early December) as they made their traditional early exit from the FA Cup with a 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest in this lunchtime’s Third Round tie.
The game’s only goal came as early as the third minute and after that, the home side were happy to sit back and play on the break.
These tactics certainly played a part in City enjoying sixty one per cent possession according to the BBC’s stats. Indeed, there were times when the pressure on the Forest goal was non stop. That term gives a bit of a misleading impression though because, despite those stats also showing that we had fifteen goal attempts to Forest’s six, the truth was that, at the end of the game, I was struggling to come up with an example of us forcing home keeper Jordan Smith into a difficult save or there being any efforts that didn’t miss by much.
Robert Glatzel endured another frustrating afternoon as the opportunity given him by Keiffer Moore’s injury against the jacks has, instead, turned into a period which appears to have drained him of all belief. Today, he missed what was our best chance when Josh Murphy, who, despite being subbed because it seems to be in his contract that he must always be subbed when he starts a game, was one of our best players on the day, was played in by a fine pass by Marlon Pack. The winger got past his man and there didn’t seem anything wrong with his pulled back low cross, but it eluded Glatzel as, not for the first time in recent weeks, I was left wondering about a lack of anticipation among our attackers.
Apart from that, Harry Wilson had two half chances which you’d think he may have scored from if he was in a more confident frame of mind. The first was nearly all of his own making as he burst on to a misplaced pass and tried to beat Smith from twenty five yards – it was a difficult opportunity which was probably no more than a quarter chance in reality, but Wilson has the ability to score goals like that and so there it was disappointing to see a ball which sat up for him nicely be whacked quite a long way wide.
Wilson’s second opportunity came when Joel Bagan, again looking at home in the first team, played one of a few intelligent forward balls that he came up with into the path of Wilson in the inside left channel, but the Wales man never looked convincing as he ended up scuffing his shot straight at Smith.
Wilson was also a little unlucky when his free kick got a slight deflection off the Forest wall and rippled the side netting and sub Junior Hoilett’s first time effort from Bagan’s cross flew not too far over late on, but that was about it from City as far as a possible equaliser went.
So, City ended up with nothing to show from a display that was a big improvement on their dismal showing at Wycombe and the same game as it panned our today under better circumstances (i.e. we weren’t on a losing run) would I’m sure have seen a reaction akin to “we wuz robbed” from some of the same supporters who are now calling for the manager to go.
I feel a draw and extra time would have been fair today, but we are where we are and defeat to a Forest team which I’m told had eight changes from the one which played in their last Championship match and generally looked a pretty poor outfit themselves leaves Neil Harris under huge pressure going into a return fixture with league leaders Norwich who beat us comfortably at Carrow Road just before Christmas.
Injuries to Sean Morrison (who hopes to be back in a fortnight) and Sol Bamba, along with the ending of Filip Benkovic’s loan from Leicester and the decision to give Dillon Phillips a debut in goal left City with a makeshift defence with Leandro Bacuna again at right back, Bagan at left back and Joe Bennett alongside Curtis Nelson in the middle.
The rejigged back line couldn’t have made a worse start either – I’m afraid the dodgy stream I was watching froze as the goal was scored so I only have one replay of it to go on, but it seemed to me that Bacuna was nowhere in sight as left back Gaetong Bong crossed to Lyle Taylor who shot crisply past Phillips from twelve yards.
That apart, it was impossible to draw too many conclusions about Phillips or Bennett as a centre back because they were barely tested after that.
Much of the remaining eighty seven minutes were spent by City trying to break down a resolute, but hardly outstanding Forest team. Another thing I have tended to have a bit of a rant about in recent years on here is our annual no shows in both League and FA Cups, but I won’t this time because I thought there was nothing wrong with the attitude of the team, the annoying aspect of today was how they made so little out of all of that possession.
Finally, if you don’t know how to spend that Amazon token you were given for Christmas or know a City fan who is in that boat, there’s always my book Real Madrid and that to consider – details can be found here.
Hi Paul.
Thanks for your usual excellent summary. Looks like everyone too depressed to comment!
I am not able to add much as only seen brief highlights and caught most of the match on Radio Wales. Very much same old, same old again. Lots of huffing and puffing and no cutting edge. Just sad that we have again departed the cup competition at the first hurdle, although cannot say we fielded a particularly weak team – we are simply not firing on all cylinders at the moment.
Interesting, as you observe, that tables have turned regarding possession in recent months. Back in the Warnock era we were constantly in the 30%ish ballpark and often found a way to win. Now we are posting better than 50% possession we are struggling. As you say, opposition teams know our attacking limitations and now we have added defensive frailty, they know chances will appear.
Didn’t look like we performed as badly as in some recent games, but something is missing. Moore is a huge loss as there is no focal point up front and Glatzel is clearly struggling playing this type of football.
Good to see Bagan get another game but the right back problem remains unresolved.
Norwich is a daunting prospect at the moment and wonder if Mr Harris will survive if we lose that one. Natives now getting extremely restless!
Your stream froze at the same time as our defence!
Very good Clive!
Thank-you once more Paul, for the continuing high standard of your writing when often-times it’s a case of trying to write the same thing in a different way. Your Thesaurus must be wearing thin these days.
First, a word about Sol Bamba and the awful news that he has recently been diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. No modern-day footballer, Whitts apart, has embodied what Cardiff City means, or has so selflessly thrown themselves into our Club’s cause than Sol. Sol, a simple get well, bro. Be assured you are in my prayers for healing and a total recovery.
I have recently read two excellent articles: the first interview was with Ralf Rangnick, Director of Football with RB Leipzig & Red Bull Salzburg. Under the heading of, “The Journey: The 3 C’s,” the interview outlined the importance of Concept, Competency and Capital in achieving a sustainable vision to progress in football. The second was an interview with Craig Bellamy regarding tactics and on field issues. The two were companion texts. Taken together they show how far adrift the good-ship CCFC is from this model of operation. Particularly strange, as our owner is a billionaire, is the fact that he must surely have some idea of how to make a business sustainable. What is clear is that unless you can deliver on the pitch, the vision, even if you have one, will never be achieved for the sand-banks upon which you will run aground. Even simply reading these two football people’s interviews was a breath of fresh air. They spoke a vibrant language which, sadly, is not in our vocabulary.
And so on to the banks of the Trent for City’s latest offering at Nott’m Forest. On the surface up until the last third, the football was an improvement, though the churlish would say that would not be difficult this 2020-21 season. However once within the whites of the eyes’ range we were, as my mate Arthur would say, “As sharp as a sausage.” Again, after conceding the obligatory early goal all the hosts needed to do was keep their defensive shape and all attacks failed to find the harbour. Why?
Much has been made about possession stats. Yes. How can a team with 61% possession, as we did last Saturday, be poorer than a 30-35%% Warnock team that regularly chalked up victories in our promotion year? This set me thinking. With less possession we clearly counter-attacked faster with Mandez-Laing and Hoilett, catching teams on the break and scored a fair number of set piece goals. Even last season we had the talismanic Tomlin who scored or laid on a total of 21 goals. Now, incredibly with more of the ball, the opposition are given more time to sit deep and we do not possess the craft to open up a side that defends. I could add to that our, ‘wingless-wingers,’ syndrome; square pegs and round holes; that Wilson rarely plays at #10 and when he does has little of the ball. It’s a recipe no ship’s-chef would want to try and make a meal from.
Forest kept their shape, sat back and City gave a good impression of trying to open one of those old tins of baked beans or corned beef with one of those fiddly keys. It wasn’t going to happen.
For those of us who can look back and remember some of the City sides in the past that played a bit of football, the post-Malky days have been difficult, even allowing for a Warnock promotion. Moreover, as I stated earlier on this blog I now feel sorry for our Manager for a range of reasons but the facts remain the same. Unless we make changes we will increasingly become becalmed until choppy waters crash over our bows. Where can we find a modern day Drake, Ralegh, Cook or Nelson from?
A thank you to both Perry’s for your replies. Huw, although it contradicts the Mehmet Dalman comment from early in the season somewhat, things like the contract talks reported this morning to Hoilett, Bennett and Harris and bids being put in for Ng of Crewe strongly suggests that City have no plans to get rid of Neil Harris in the short term at least – maybe the lack of fans at games is working in our manager’s favour?
Steve, there’s a very interesting further interview with Craig Bellamy on his approach to coaching that has been published this morning which makes it sound very unlikely that we’d see him back here anytime soon – Bellamy says that we’re just like 90 per cent of other clubs in this country with our short termism, but I think he’s being a bit charitable there. Also, I can only repeat your comments about Sol Bamba – at times like this, you read a lot about what a great person someone is, but, hearing and reading the various messages of supports from within the game from both individuals and clubs (e.g. Forest and Taff’s Well), it is so merited this time.